Fun With Standings

by Peter Bendix on Sep 10, 2008 12:46 PM EDT

Over at Baseball Prospectus you can find "third order" adjusted standings. Basically, these standings are based upon AEQA - adjusted equivalent average. In other words, how many runs a team "should" have scored and "should" have given up, based upon their (and their opponent's) batting line, adjusted for strength of schedule.

The idea is that these standings paint a picture of a team's "True Ability", and that any deviation from these standings is probably due to things outside of a team's control (like batting with runners in scoring position, or having your pitchers leave more men on base than average).

These standings change nothing about the past. But they do have an influence on the future, as they are more reflective of a team's True Ability than actual standings.

With that said, here are third-order standings:

Boston	91	53
Tampa Bay	86	57
Toronto	82	62
New York	81	64
Baltimore	67	76

Chicago	80	64
Cleveland	75	68
Minnesota	73	71
Detroit	73	72
Kansas City	64	81

Los Angeles	75	69
Oakland	70	74
Texas	70	75
Seattle	60	83

New York	79	65
Philadelphia	76	69
Atlanta	71	74
Florida	70	75
Washington	57	88

Chicago	85	59
Milwaukee	79	66
St Louis	74	70
Houston	70	75
Cincinnati	61	84
Pittsburgh	54	90

Los Angeles	78	67
Arizona	72	72
Colorado	71	74
San Francisco	63	81
San Diego	62	83

A few notes:

* The Red Sox are really, really good.

* The Blue Jays are the third best team in the AL...and in the AL East.

* The Angels are not that good (more on them later in the week), and the difference between them and Texas and Oakland is not that large.

*Pittsburgh and Washington are awful. At least the Pirates have a somewhat bright future.

*Despite injuries to Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner, the Indians are still a good team this year. Look out for them next season.

*The eight playoff teams, as of today, according to "regular" standings are the same eight teams that would make the playoffs, accoding to third-order standings.

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cool stuff

is there a league-adjustment? if not, applying one would probably put the Jays ahead of the Cubs and into third in all of MLB. i smell a “JP Ricciardi is underrated” post coming up one of these days…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

I picked the Jays to finish second in the ALE.

I’m extremely interested to see how RIcciardi attempts to replace Burnett. I know there’s been some talk of Scott Downs moving to the rotation.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Over whom?

Not saying anything, just wondering…

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 10, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Boston, Toronto, NY/TB, BAL was the order I had on Baseball Analysts roundtable.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay.

I was wondering if you had forseen the “greatness”

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 10, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I saw the Rays winning around 85 games.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

And that would mean that the Yankees would be right around that...

Did you have Baltimore around .500? If you did, then you might have had the AL East a bit too powerful.

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 10, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't assign win totals to each, the 85 wins was my personal Rays prediction.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh.

That’s still a pretty heavy division. Although, the AL West might have compensated.

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 10, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

*The eight playoff teams, as of today, according to "regular" standings are the same eight teams that would make the playoffs, accoding to third-order standings.

That’s amazing.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 2:30 PM EDT reply actions

Different order though.

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 10, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Doesn't diminish it quite that much.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

It shows that the playoff matchups are probably gonna screw somebody.

The Angels and Rays are way over achieving, so the Sox (both of em) might end up facing the wrong teams. And Milwaukee might get screwed for their lack of luck.

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 10, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

There's still a fair amount of time for SOME regression to occur.

It’s entirely possible that Boston finishes with the best record in the AL and that Tampa wins the wild card. Although that will obviously be credited more to “folding under the pressure” than regression, but since when do people ever blame losing on regression, it’s always something else.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

According to the above standings, the Rays are exactly where they should be.

Three of their starters are in the top five of quality of hitters faced (100 IP min.)

The Angels, on the other hand, are12 games over their third-order percentage.

If you look at straight run differential, the Rays are over-achieving, but their strong bullpen explains 3-4 of those wins. Same for the Angels.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 10, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Look at where the Sox are in comparison to where they should be.

Even if the Rays are average-ly lucky, you wouldn’t be in first if the Sox performed like they should have.

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 11, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

ok, right. relative to the Sox, the Rays have gotten lucky.

but (at least by this analysis) that’s completely because the Sox have been unlucky. i agree. if Drew, Crawford, Longoria, and and Upton are healthy in the playoffs, it’s a tossup (and yes, I think these two teams are way better than the White Sox and Angels and yes, I realize that’s surprisingly irrelevant in a best-of-five series.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 11, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's just settle it in the ALCS.

We should demand it be pushed back if either team has injuries yet to heal.

Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.

by bdalebs on Sep 12, 2008 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

not to piss off any Astros fans

but to see them listed at five games under .500 in true talent when this was posted and fourteen games over .500 in actual wins after today’s game just screams fluke. but hey, i’d rather be rooting for a mediocre team getting lucky than a good team getting unlucky, I guess.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 13, 2008 9:10 PM EDT reply actions