Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Can Tebow Say No To Anything?

The David Price Quandary

The anniversary of Joba Chamberlain's debut is August 7th and while I'm sure not much will be made of it, outside of the YES Network of course, we could be on the verge of seeing something similar play out in St. Petersburg. The Rays are 51 games from finishing their season and have a lead, although slight, in the division that has prompted some fans to begin magic number counts. A young and talented contending team may add another young piece before too long as last year's top draft pick David Price is making AA look pretty simple, yet Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine have done okay as starters, despite Jackson's atrocious K/BB ratio, which prompts a few questions:

1. Why is it always "good young team' and never "good old team"?
2. Should David Price be a reliever or starter upon his promotion to the majors?

I decided to see what would be more valuable to the Rays by using Leverage Index and projecting Leveraged Runs Saved. The formula is (5.75 (4.75 for relievers)-ERA)*(IP/9)*(LI).

We'll assume that if Price came up today he would throw around 27 innings as a reliever, and make eight starts for 45 innings. A 4.5 ERA for starting, a 3 ERA for reliever, obviously he could do something like become Velociraptor Jesus combined with Mariano Rivera out of the bullpen, but for now we'll assume he's good, not great. We'll place the pLI of his relieving duties at 1.25 - roughly the 7th inning guy on most teams - and the starter pLI around 0.95.

Role IP ERA LVG LRS
Starter 45 4.5 0.95 5.9375
Reliever 27 3 1.25 6.5625

Above we see that Price saves a little more than a half of a run as a reliever over his usage as a starter. Not only does this allow the Rays to move on from using a Jason Hammel or Al Reyes type and instead use one of their best 12 pitchers, but also allows for one of their backend starters to improve on potential trade value as well as a sneaky way of limiting the amount of innings Price throws in his first professional season. Remember Price didn't pitch last season from June until spring training and in that first spring training inning he'd strike out the Yankees side that featured Wilson Betemit amongst other pros.

 

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

About Price's innings count...

Do you think the FO will consider the possibility of Price being on a playoff roster when thinking about how many innings to let him pitch down the stretch?

by Peter Bendix on Aug 5, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would assume so.

What would pitching in the playoffs equate to, 3-5 innings each series perhaps? 15 or so total?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently SP LI is around 1, not .95, so I reran the numbers

And the numbers are still pretty close, but when you adjust the ERAs to assume starters lose about a run when moving into relief work you reach these numbers:

S: 6.25
R: 4.69

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 12:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I <3 Raptor Jesus

And I believe they should do the bullpen.

by CARXRiedmann on Aug 5, 2008 12:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

770insig_small
BtB's "Ball On A Budget" Fantasy League - Discuss Participants, Payrolls and Position Eligibility

Recent FanPosts

Ds9_small
good graphing program?
Small
Predicting HR/FB Rates
Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Troy Tulowitzki vs Ryan Braun
Small
Pitchers batted ball observations
Small
Eric Byrnes: A player worth a look?
Small
Valverde Is Charging Detroit Double
Mukuro_small
Another question: About power rankings
Small
Why You Shouldn't Trade for Arroyo
Jinaz-reds-avatar_small
Last Call for BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Nominations

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Can you spot the five guys NOT in the Hall of Fame? It's easy, I separated 'em for ya. :)

Here's the full post about guys elected to the Hall of Fame primarily for their defense. Guys like Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Bobby Wallace, John Ward, and Bid McPhee stand up as definite HOFers, with many others worthy of debate (and a couple aren't worth any debate at all).

I almost made it through the whole post without comparing some HOFers to our friends Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Alan Trammell, and Ron Santo. Almost.
If you care about newspaper coverage of MLB, read this post
Visualizing the Difference Between Offensive and Defensive Value for Catchers
First B-Pro and now ESPN. Tommy, you're growing up so fast
THT - Advancing by ground
Negro League Museum Close to Folding
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one...
Ranking Minor League Systems Using Victors Wang's Prospect Valuations
Pitch f/x on Ricky Nolasco Stretch vs. Windup again
Veron Wells the artist.  I never knew.

http://www.vwellsart.com/

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Roots_game_small R.J. Anderson

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

Ozzie_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Paige_small Satchel Price