Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: The Boxing Bulletin for Boxing Fans!

Will The "Joba Rules" Apply Next Year?

You've probably heard of the Joba Rules.

Concocted by the Yankees and proliferated by the media, the "Joba Rules" simply were to be very careful with Joba Chamberlain. The Yankees used their young ace-in-the-making very conservatively this season, starting him in the bullpen (and not letting him pitch on back to back days), and then slowly transitioning him into the rotation. It worked seamlessly, as Joba has been extremely successful throughout the entire season. In 78 innings between the bullpen and rotation, Joba has a 2.30 ERA and 93 strikeouts. That's impressive.

Conventional sabermetric wisdom generally dictates that no young starter - especially one as fragile as Chamberlain - should exceed his total innings from the past year by more than approximately 30 innings. Tom Verducci originated this dictum. Of course, every pitcher - indeed, every person - is different and should be treated accordingly. However, there is no denying that if any pitcher called for a conservative course of action, it's Chamberlain. Between his past health problems and his tremendous ceiling, it behooves the Yankees to be cautious with Joba; hence, the Joba Rules.

Last season, Joba pitched in 116 innings between the minor and major leagues. The Yankees likely wanted to limit his innings this season to 140-150, thus setting him up to pitch 170-180 (nearly an entire full season) in 2009. They monitored his bullpen usage closely and began his transition to the rotation at the point in the season where Joba would finish the season right around his targetted innings pitched (and perhaps even have some left over for the playoffs).

However, as you know, Joba is currently on the disabled list. He has pitched only 78 innings thus far this year, and although he is likely to pitch again this season, he may return as a reliever. Even if Joba returns as a starter, he likely won't make more than five starts over the course of the rest of the season. Even if we expected him to average seven innings per start - which is highly unlikely - Joba would toss 35 more innings this year, giving him a total of 113. Thus, it's very unlikely that Joba's innings count from this season will exceed his innings count from last season.

What does this mean for next year? Well, it would seem to mean that the Yankees will be in the exact same position, next year, as they were going in to this year. Joba is still a highly talented young pitcher with a recent history of injuries, coming off a season where he pitched in less than 120 innings. Thus, it makes sense, once again, to limit his innings total so that he doesn't pitch many more than 150, if that. There's a good chance that I am missing or overlooking something, but, on the surface, it appears that the Yankees will have no choice but to institute the Joba Rules again next season.

0 recs  |  Comment 1 comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"
Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter
Criminals of WAR
Ten statisticians you should know about

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright