Why?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 15, 2008 1:59 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

Hating on the Mariner's front office for a missed opportunity is a bit easy and redundant, but this is startling. Apparently the Twins offered Boof Bonser for Jarrod Washburn, and the Mariners somehow said no. Here are the problems with that

1.Boof Bonser is a better, younger, and cheaper pitcher than Jarrod Washburn. His 4.33 tRA (thanks StatCorner!) as a starter is well below the Mariners rotation average.
2. The Mariners front office likely looked at Bonser's 6.37 ERA and immediately wrote him off as a bad pitcher.
3. Wait, why are the Twins after Washburn anyways?
4. And why are they offering Bonser for a pitcher with a 5.16 tRA?
5. Washburn is due 10.35 million next year. Not only is that overpaying, that's like paying 50 dollars for a day old newspaper.

I really don't know what either side is thinking.

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Boof > Washburn

I’d much rather have Boof in the rotation than Washburn. I’m so relieved that this deal didn’t go through.

yickit.com

by yickit on Aug 15, 2008 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand why they even offered it.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 15, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boof's ERA is awful!

The Pirates should inquire on him.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 16, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it weren't for my horse...

I wouldn’t have spent that year in college.

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats

by pizzacutter on Aug 16, 2008 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

blocking him from the white sox.

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 16, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But he's not good.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 16, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's better than whoever the sox will be trotting out. you miss these stellar performances?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/richacl01.shtml

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 16, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's not why the Twins claimed him

They’re not going to spend $13MM between this year and next to prevent the White Sox from upgrading a replacement-level pitcher to a 4.75 ERA pitcher.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 16, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't seem smart.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 16, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the mariners were never going to let him go for a waiver fee. and the twins were never going to trade for him.

i’m not sure where the confusion about this comes from. perhaps rays fans have never paid attention to waivers before?

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 16, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent shot.

But we’ve done many a waiver deal before, Jose Canseco and Russ Branyan pop to mind.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 16, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, probably not a good shot.

i guess i was getting more to the concept of blocking. the mariners were asking two top prospects for washburn two weeks ago. idiots. today they weren’t going to give him away for nothing. still idiots. the twins don’t take on salary. smart. if the twins could have gotten washburn for a song and the mariners picking most of the salary, perhaps a trade could have gotten done. but see the assessment of the mariners above.

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 17, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but if the M's did the smart thing and just let Washburn go...

then the Twins look really dumb.

and the Mariners look really dumb for not letting him go.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 17, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah. but the mariners weren't going to do the smart thing.

repeat after me: “it’s the mariners”.

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 17, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but if the Twins knew how bad Washburn was and that his contract was bad

why not just let him get claimed by the White Sox?

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 17, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

see above.

because washburn would actually be an improvement over what the sox are and will be trotting out to replace contreras. and the sox are not exactly a small market team.

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 17, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i guess so

I just don’t see Washburn as that valuable. a 4.75 ERA starter over, say, 8 starts, is about a half-win improvement over a 5.75 ERA replacement-level starter. max.

and the Sox don’t have infinite funds. the $10MM they’d pay Washburn next year would mean they’d spend $10MM less elsewhere.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 17, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what does half a win get a team that's currently tied for first place?

i’m sure you’re familiar with the concept of marginal utility.

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 17, 2008 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

any idea how to quantify the increase in playoff probability from adding a half-win pitcher — whatever it is, is it higher than what he’ll cost the Sox in playoff probability in 2009?

Washburn’s skills as a lefty flyball pitcher were perfectly suited for Safeco and are not a good match for that Chicago stadium, meaning he’s probably less than a half-win upgrade.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 17, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm sure there's a way to do it.

though you’d have to come up with some basic assumptions, of course, w/r/t playoff chance baselines.

but i’d just say off the cuff that the sox’ playoff chances are much better on august 18, 2008 when they’re tied for first than they will be on april 1, 2009 when they’re tied for first – regardless of whether washburn is on the team or not. old team getting older that has hit the jackpot this year with a weak division and some surprise performances (not to mention surprise health). the twins sure don’t look like they’ll be worse next year with all those players hitting their primes. and the sox don’t look quite so good with a lot of players getting further from it and a bare minor league cupboard.

paging mr. poreda. paging mr. aaron poreda. your seat in the left field bullpen is ready.

by larry on Aug 18, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs