End Myth Now

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 8, 2008 1:22 PM EDT Comment 5 comments

i know this has probably been written about elsewhere, so I'm only going to devote a paragraph to it. "It" being the conception that the NFL has more parity than MLB. Here's what I commented on the matter over at DRB:

Over the last five years 20 MLB and 25 NFL teams have made the playoffs. Over those five years the NFL had an additional four spots per season—or roughly 20 extra spots over our time frame. Five more teams doesn’t seem too big considering the NFL has conceived competitive balance items implemented like a salary cap and strength scheduling mechanisms in place, now does it?

I do want to get your thoughts on this though, does the NFL have more competitive balance than Major League Baseball?

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What It Seems Like....

Is that the NFL has more parity, without doing any kind of research. From what you wrote, though, I guess it’s probably even or more in favor of baseball. In both sports you do see bad teams one year that rise up the next year, good teams that have an off year, retool, and come back. Then, of course, you have the teams that are there every year, especially in baseball—the Yankees come to mind, of course. I’m trying to think what the football equivalent is to baseball’s Yankees and Braves, who had that incredible run. Of course! The New England Patriots, the Colts are two teams. I would say, given the number of playoff spots and such, that it is even-steven.

"We praise or blame as one or the other affords more opportunity for exhibiting our power of judgment." Friedrich Nietzsche, "Human,All Too Human" (1878)

by wgarrett on Jul 8, 2008 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wild Cards

Where the parity issue may seem more in favor of the NFL (and I am not positive on this because I don’t have exact numbers) is the fact that Wild Card teams have won championships recently. Teams that barely made the playoffs like the Pittsburgh Steelers of a couple years ago or other Wild Card teams like the New York Giants this year have gone on to win championships. The AFC seems to be dominated by the same teams every year where the NFC seems to be in more flux on a regular basis. It would be interesting to know the conference/league breakdown of the playoff teams.

by jwhiggins3 on Jul 9, 2008 1:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Salary Cap

There’s no inherit advantage to any one team in football based on payroll. But baseball teams have the advantage of minor league systems and limited salaries over the first few years, allowing smart teams to overcome payroll deficiences.

If we’re talking about the year-to-year ability to improve, football has the “advantage” of non-guaranteed salaries, meaning you can cut all your players and start over. In baseball, teams can suffer for years from bad contracts.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 9, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A reader emailed me this point:

The short schedules adds to parity because it increases the chances that
mediocre teams will have a good enough record to make the playoffs and
also that good teams will have a poor enough record to miss the playoffs.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 9, 2008 8:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree.

I think the chances of an inferior football team defeating a superior team, on any given Sunday (contrary to the popular saying) are relatively small, as compared to baseball.

Most baseball teams win 40-60% of their games; all baseball teams win between 35% and 65%. Football teams will win between 12% and 88%. I believe this is due to how much luck is involved in baseball, as compared with football.

Thus, even though baseball’s schedule is much, much longer, I believe that the relative lack of luck involved in football makes it far more likely that in any individual game, the better football team will win.

by Peter Bendix on Jul 10, 2008 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs