Has Johan Santana Gotten Worse?
Johan Santana's 2.96 ERA obscures the fact that he is not as good of a pitcher as he used to be.
Is anything wrong with Johan Santana? Some writers were asking the same thing last year at this time, only to see Johan rebound with another excellent second half, culminating in a dominant performance against the Texas Rangers on August 19, giving up two hits over eight innings, while striking out 17 (and walking zero).
However, after this start, Santana struggled during the rest of the season. Over his last 44 innings, he allowed an ERA of 5.11 and struck out "only" 44 (while this is still a lot of strikeouts, it’s down from the 191 strikeouts in his first 175 innings). This could be read as a bump in the road – perhaps Johan was tired, perhaps it was the result of a small sample size fluke.
This season, some people have once again wondered if anything is wrong with Johan. His "problems" have been attributed to some combination of poor run support/overrating win-loss record, and the fact that Johan has always been an excellent second-half pitcher (except for last September). If we examine Johan’s statistics more closely, we see there is indeed cause for concern, despite his pristine 2.96 ERA.
First of all, Johan’s strikeouts are still "down." While 109 strikeouts in 121 innings is nothing to sneeze at, it’s well down from Johan’s rate over the last several seasons (the last time Johan struck out less than a batter an inning was way back in 2001). This is even more troublesome given the fact that Johan is now pitching in the National League, and thus gets to face the pitcher (or a pinch hitter) three or four times a game, as well as generally weaker competition (as evidenced by the American League’s domination in interleague play).
Perhaps of more concern is Santana’s velocity, which is down. This season, according to Fangraphs, his average fastball velocity is 91.2 MPH. Last year his fastball averaged 91.7, and in the previous two seasons it averaged 93.1 and 92.4 MPH. Interestingly, Santana’s changeup velocity has also decreased from 81.9 and 81.8 MPH over the previous two seasons, to 79.9 MPH this season. Additionally, the velocity of Johan’s slider is down, and he is using it less frequently than in the past.
This year, Santana’s slider averages 83.4 MPH. It was 84.9 MPH in each of the past two years, and his career average slider is 84.4 MPH. Interestingly, Santana has been using his slider less often this year than previous seasons: this year, 12.8% of his pitches have been sliders. In his career, 14.6% of his pitches have been sliders, and back in 2005 and 2006 he threw 16.9% and 16.5% sliders (he used his slider less frequently last year as well, using it only 11.6% of the time).
Additionally, Santana has been using his slider less often when he is ahead in the count this season than he did last season. Here is a chart detailing the percentage of times he has thrown each of his three pitches when the count has been 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2.
Santana is throwing the same amount of fastballs when he is ahead in the count, but he has sacrificed his slider in favor of his changeup. And his strikeouts are down. Is this a coincidence? It could be. But, given Santana’s dominance over the last six years, it’s surprising that he is choosing to throw fewer sliders when ahead in the count this year.
Santana is also throwing fewer first pitch strikes this year – 60% of his first pitches have been strikes. He had not delivered a first pitch strike less than 64% of the time since 2002. Additionally, in the past if Johan delivered a first pitch strike, the batter had very little chance of getting a hit in that at bat. From 2005-2007, opposing batters hit .187/.215/.315 in all at bats that had an 0-1 count, and struck out 36% of the time. This year, however, batters are hitting .221/.264/.359 in all at bats that had an 0-1 count, and have struck out 32% of the time.
In other words, Santana has earned 0-1 counts less than in the past, and even when he does get the count to 0-1, he has given up more hits and struck out fewer batters in those at bats this season than in the past."
Simply put, Santana’s stuff does not seem to be as good as it used to be. Take a look at this table:
| % of | % of | |||
| Contact | swinging | strikes that | % of | |
| rate | third strikes | were swinging | 0-2 counts | |
| 2008 | 77% | 69% | 17% | 20% |
| 2007 | 72% | 82% | 21% | 26% |
| 2006 | 74% | 86% | 20% | 25% |
| 2005 | 74% | 85% | 20% | 25% |
| 2004 | 69% | 82% | 23% | 25% |
| 2003 | 74% | 82% | 19% | 23% |
And remember, even when he manages to throw strike one (which he has done less often this year than in the past), he’s not as lights-out as he used to be, as he strikes out fewer hitters and allows more hits after an 0-1 count than he has in the past.
To summarize: Santana is not throwing as hard as he used to – the velocity of his fastball, changeup, and slider are all down. He is throwing his slider less often when he is ahead in the count than he used to. Additionally, Santana is throwing fewer first pitch strikes and is less dominant in the at bats in which he does throw a first pitch strike. He is getting himself into 0-2 counts less than he used to. He is walking more and striking out fewer hitters (despite pitching in the National League), and a higher percentage of the strikeouts he does get are called third strikes, rather than swinging strikes. In fact, batters are making contact more often when they do swing than ever before.
Don’t get me wrong: Johan is still very good. However, this season he has not been the same pitcher that he had been throughout most of his career. The Mets can only hope that this downgrade is a bump in the road and not the beginning of a trend.
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16 comments
Comments
Weren't there some murmurs he was backing off of using his change last year?
At least late in the season.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 7, 2008 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I looked through Gamecast from last year...
And unfortunately, in most of the starts his pitch speed wasn’t chronicled, so I couldn’t tell what pitches he was throwing. Does anyone know of any sources where I might be able to find speed/type of Santana’s pitches from last year besides gamecast?
by Peter Bendix on Jul 7, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When was he good?
GO BRAVOS!
Fred Garvin.........................male prostitute
by Fred Garvin on Jul 7, 2008 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BRILLIANT DATA AND RESEARCH...HOWEVER
I’d take a look at his overall Win / Loss before and after the all star break.
He seems to get hot after the all star break. Strange.
"DUDE..."
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jul 7, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Although he is known as a second-half performer,
Johan’s pre All-Star break ERA last year was 2.75, while his ERA after the break was 4.04.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 8, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitch selection
I wonder whether the fact that Santana is throwing more changeups and fewer sliders when ahead in the count might be due to one or more of:
A) Throwing to different catchers with different game-calling styles than in the past
B) Pitch selection philosophies of Rick Peterson and (to a lesser extent) Dan Warthen
C) Organizational pressure to keep a major investment from injury by calling for fewer sliders, which (as I understand it) are harder than the arm than fastballs and changes
Personally, I’d like to see him return to using the slider more often and see whether the other numbers might improve accordingly.
by JoshNY on Jul 8, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Johan
We have seen this before where a pitcher goes from one league to another and we expect him to be the same pitcher he was the year before. This only happens with HOF pitchers such as Clemens. Even Randy Johnson had a tough time in NY which is kind of expected considering the AL is typically the harder league to pitch in. The NL is different but Johan is dealing with a different team, different catcher and better hitters in the NL East.
by Sports Picks on Jul 8, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see no reason why, if he fundamental ability was intact, Johan would decline this year, pitching in the easier league (and getting to face the pitcher’s spot several times per game). The hitters in the NL are worse than those in the AL, not better, and he gets to start half of his games in Shea Stadium, which is much more conducive to his style than the Metrodome.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 8, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction:
That should read “if his fundamental ability was intact.”
by Peter Bendix on Jul 8, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh
So the pitching favorable conditions of the National League and Shea Stadium are partially cloaking his decline? I wonder how he’ll compare to Sabathia for the rest of the season.
by Frosty Raptor on Jul 9, 2008 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely.
Plus, the drop in strikeouts is particularly noteworthy now that Johan is pitching in the NL.
Not that he can’t succeed with his current strikeout rate, but it’s been a long time since he struck out less than a batter an inning. And his walk rate is up, too, albeit slightly.
I’d rather have Sabathia for the rest of the year. It will be extremely interesting to see what happens with Sabathia after the season.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 9, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Must be missing something here
All of your pre-2008 data includes second halves. In all of Johan’s past 5 year’s worth of second halves Johan has been nearly fantastic (except for last year). So fantastic that they turned his (just) good first halves into excellent season totals.
Then you compare those excellent season totals to 2008’s first half – where he is again putting up (just) good numbers.
Unless I am missing something here this research is meaningless until you are able to factor in the second half of 2008 – or you go back and compare the first half of 2008 against his previous first half numbers.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 10, 2008 9:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
First half data
Here is Johan’s first-half-only K and BB rates:
2008: 8.1 – 2.5
2007: 9.3 – 2.2
2006: 9.5 – 1.6
2005: 10.4 – 1.9
2004: 10.0 – 2.3
2003: 10.1 – 2.9
2002: 11.5 – 3.8
Incidentally, Johan’s ERA was worse in the second half by a lot last year (4.04 in the second half, 2.75 in the first). But in 2006, his ERA wasn’t that different by half (2.54 in the second half, 2.95 in the first).
His ERA was far better in the second half than in the first in 2005 and 2004. But it was worse in the second half in 2003 and 2002.
Yes, Johan was amazing in the second half for two years. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he is a “second half pitcher.” And, furthermore, his numbers so far this year are definitely down from even his first-half-only numbers in the past.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 11, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great article
Great article, Peter. I linked to it on my latest column I do for Rotowire called Scouting Pitchers. I covered Santana this week. Look forward to reading more.
by JBenkard on Jul 12, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great Article
Goes beyond the whole his win-loss record isn’t as good so he must not be as good.
by Miguel90 on Aug 3, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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