A New Twist to Olympic "Baseball"

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 26, 2008 3:58 PM EDT

In case you hadn't seen this yet, let me provide you with a summary of how innings beyond the 11th will play out in the upcoming Olympics: each team gets runners on first and second and can choose the point in their batting order to start the inning. That's not a joke, but let's analyze what it means.

Obviously the IOC wants games to get over with and not extend into the 12th, 15th, or 22nd innings. Nobody likes those crazy games and there's certainly nothing rewarding as that rollercoaster ride where every at-bat could be the deciding one. So the solution is to place two on and give the teams a choice of who they want up. This is supposed to end games quicker, but will it even do that?

Using Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix we can compare the none on, none out and two on, none out situations.

0/0: 0.555 runs expected

1-2/0: 1.573 runs expected

So yes, run expectancy is raised, but doesn't this seem a bit unfair if one team has Matt LaPorta up and the other has, well, not Matt LaPorta? I suppose this is a way of mimicking a hockey shootout, but baseball isn't supposed to be like this, it's an untimed game, forcing situations to end a game is ridiculous.

After all, didn't we just experience one of the greatest all-star games in recent times, largely because of the mystery that piled up as the game went deep into the night?

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That's...horrible.

There was an idea I heard about the All-Star Game extra innings, that in the 10th the away team has as many outs as they need to score a run, and then get to make another out. Then the home team has that many outs to score more runs. Maybe wouldn’t work in olympic baseball because the stakes are different, but it was a good idea for the ASG.

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by WalrusMan on Jul 27, 2008 3:43 PM EDT reply actions

Well that's stupid.

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by Aaron Campeau on Jul 27, 2008 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

the logistics just don't work for letting these games go "forever"

interesting to note that in the japanese leagues and in korea the games are called draws after twelve. i would imagine the us teams would also be scared of their pitchers being used excessively. games are played back to back in the same stadiums, tight game schedules, no call ups allowed to bolster a pitching staff, etc. gotta figure something out. i personally would have just gone for the draw scenario for the group stages. after that, i’m not sure what to do.

by larry on Jul 28, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions