Derby Curse? Nah

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 13, 2008 9:57 PM EDT Comment 0 comments

Another reader requested piece today: testing the myth (or is it) of homerun derby participants changing their approach and suffering second half regresses.

Taking the combatants from 1998 through 2007 (84 total) I looked up their first half and second half OPS (with help from user SaberToothedPie) to see if the players really did suffer a let down post derby. Why not homeruns? Because for one the games are disproportioned and 15 homers in the second half is actually more impressive than 15 in the first half on a rate scale. Hitters also can have their ratios like HR/FB% regress or progress, meaning homeruns just even out over the 162 game season. Instead we're looking at an outline of their entire offensive performance, or at least a summed up version.

Year	Player	PreASBOPS	PostASBOPS	NET	W
2007	Morneau	0.944	0.702	-0.242
2007	Ordonez	1.05	1.004	-0.046
2007	Rios	0.87	0.831	-0.039
2007	Guerrero	0.962	0.935	-0.027	W
2007	Fielder	0.996	1.034	0.038
2007	Howard	0.933	1.016	0.083
2007	Holliday	0.964	1.073	0.109
2007	Pujols	0.886	1.097	0.211
2006	Wright	0.961	0.844	-0.117
2006	Dye	1.043	0.965	-0.078
2006	Cabrera	0.998	0.998	0
2006	Tejada	0.871	0.886	0.015
2006	Glaus	0.859	0.879	0.02
2006	Berkman	1.011	1.078	0.067
2006	Ortiz	0.996	1.121	0.125
2006	Howard	0.932	1.259	0.327	W
2005	Abreu	0.955	0.787	-0.168	W
2005	C. Lee	0.864	0.747	-0.117
2005	I. Rodriguez	0.761	0.697	-0.064
2005	A. Jones	0.93	0.911	-0.019
2005	Choi	0.777	0.814	0.037
2005	Ortiz	0.982	1.024	0.042
2005	Teixeira	0.93	0.982	0.052
2005	Bay	0.93	0.998	0.068
2004	Blalock	0.941	0.743	-0.198
2004	Thome	1.059	0.868	-0.191
2004	Sosa	0.939	0.777	-0.162
2004	Bonds	1.421	1.421	0
2004	Tejada	0.887	0.902	0.015	W
2004	Berkman	1.008	1.024	0.016
2004	Palmeiro	0.771	0.825	0.054
2004	Ortiz	0.954	1.021	0.067
2003	Edmonds	1.066	0.864	-0.202
2003	Boone	0.963	0.815	-0.148
2003	Anderson	0.943	0.807	-0.136	W
2003	Delgado	1.053	0.965	-0.088
2003	Giambi	0.966	0.898	-0.068
2003	Pujols	1.121	1.084	-0.037
2003	Sheffield	1.019	1.028	0.009
2003	Sexson	0.889	0.98	0.091
2002	Konerko	0.949	0.743	-0.206
2002	Berkman	1.053	0.901	-0.152
2002	Sosa	1.059	0.911	-0.148
2002	Hunter	0.911	0.78	-0.131
2002	Sexson	0.882	0.847	-0.035
2002	Giambi	1.032	1.035	0.003	W
2002	A. Rodriguez	1.008	1.023	0.015
2002	Bonds	1.342	1.432	0.09
2001	L. Gonzalez	1.189	1.032	-0.157	W
2001	Boone	0.945	0.956	0.011
2001	Glaus	0.877	0.922	0.045
2001	Helton	1.09	1.148	0.058
2001	A. Rodriguez	0.993	1.052	0.059
2001	Sosa	1.126	1.225	0.099
2001	Giambi	1.082	1.202	0.12
2001	Bonds	1.314	1.455	0.141
2000	E. Martinez	1.114	0.883	-0.231
2000	Everett	1.05	0.831	-0.219
2000	Guerrero	1.131	1.004	-0.127
2000	Delgado	1.185	1.069	-0.116
2000	C. Jones	1.023	0.913	-0.11
2000	Griffey	0.935	0.952	0.017
2000	Sosa	0.962	1.138	0.176	W
1999	Surhoff	0.923	0.737	-0.186
1999	S. Green	1.047	0.889	-0.158
1999	Griffey	1.024	0.882	-0.142	W
1999	Bagwell	1.109	0.968	-0.141
1999	Burnitz	0.998	0.886	-0.112
1999	Garciparra	1.054	0.988	-0.066
1999	Walker	1.188	1.135	-0.053
1999	Jaha	0.981	0.956	-0.025
1999	Sosa	0.972	1.036	0.064
1999	McGwire	1.027	1.236	0.209
1998	Thome	1.09	0.792	-0.298
1998	Griffey	1.061	0.876	-0.185	W
1998	Lopez	0.937	0.789	-0.148
1998	Easley	0.876	0.731	-0.145
1998	McGwire	1.252	1.189	-0.063
1998	A. Rodriguez	0.94	0.894	-0.046
1998	Palmeiro	0.959	0.928	-0.031
1998	C. Jones	0.955	0.946	-0.009
1998	Alou	0.975	0.988	0.013
1998	Castilla	0.926	0.98	0.054

Above you see the 843 players, their first and second half OPS, a "net" column (second half OPS - first half OPS) and a "W" column - only the players who won that derby have a W listed. 50 of the 84 players either saw no post-derby gain or suffered an OPS drop, meaning only 34 had positive post-derby experiences.It's important to note that Ivan Rodriguez played in all of 10 games following the derby, hence his absence.

So can we predict a fall off for some of the contestants in tomorrow's derby? It seems quite likely that at least a few will have lower second half OPSes, but correlation doesn't always stem from causation, so while people may think the derby affected a player, there's nothing too conclusive to be drawn, despite only a .443 R2 between first half and second half OPSes which I actually figured would be a bit higher.

To see if this is regular or not we took the top 50 homerun hitters from 2007 and compared their first and second half OPSes - since in the end we are talking about some of their power hitting brethren who, again in theory, didn't "mess up their swings" or anything of the sort. The R2 of the first and second half OPSes: .344.

That means your average HRD participant actually has a better chance at maintaining his first half OPS than your top 50 homerun hitters, at least in 2007.

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