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Griffey's In, Who Else?

With Ken Griffey Jr. hitting number 600 last night it seemed like a reasonable time to examine some players hall of fame chances, beginning of course with Griffey. The method used is one developed by Jay Jaffe and executed by that one guy who writes here, Normandin or something,  You can read more about it in that link, but essentially it's comparing WARP3 numbers for prime years amongst other things.

Ken Griffey Jr.

Category WARP 3 PEAK JAWS
HOF OF 119.1 67.3 93.2
Griffey Jr. 132.9 76.4 104.65

Griffey blows away the average outfielder in the hall, that's without even correctly classifying Griffey Jr. in center, where the numbers would go down slightly. Even so Griffey shatters the guidelines.

Verdict: In.

Manny Ramirez

Category WARP 3 PEAK JAWS
HOF OF 119.1 67.3 93.2
Ramirez 112.4 59.6 86

It's probably safe to say Manny's 500th homerun locked him in, but interestingly enough he's just slightly off from the average outfielder. Assuming he doesn't retire after this season -- and I don't think he will -- he's almost definitely going to lock himself in with one more good season.

Verdict: In.

Nomar Garciaparra

Category WARP 3 PEAK JAWS
HOF SS 121.5 71.7 96.6
Garciaparra 74.5 66.5 70.5

Likely the biggest case of "what if", Garciaparra had six very good seasons, but his final "peak" season was only four wins above replacement, otherwise his peak years put him there, if the rest of his career doesn't quite.

Verdict: Out.

Jason Giambi

Category WARP 3 PEAK JAWS
HOF 1B 115.1 66.9 91
Giambi 90 63.2 76.6

A very solid peak, but otherwise Giambi would need a few more decent seasons to have a legitimate shot. Considering his name is pretty clean, despite essentially admitting to steroid usage, Giambi likely won't be taken out off of ballets due to his usage.

Verdict: Out.

Ichiro Suzuki

Category WARP 3 PEAK JAWS
HOF OF 119.1 67.3 93.2
Ichiro 73.3 65.8 69.55

Ichiro's candidacy would depend on the amount of respect for his Japanese accomplishments were given. A few more good seasons in America couldn't hurt either.

Verdict: Out.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

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Deserve to get in, or will get in?

Looking at it like the voters seem to:

There’s no need to even talk about Griffey. He was in as soon as he became eligible. The only things that could have stopped him were a Pete Rose moment or an OJ moment. His inability to stay healthy and his recent horrendous play won’t even push him to a second ballot.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Ichiro will go in to the Hall of Fame – most likely first ballot. He’s unique, he gets lots of hits (definitely over 3000 when you count Japan – chance at 3000 just in the US), he’s seen as a pioneer (first Japanese position player star), he gunned down Terence Long at 3b. I think by the time he’s done, Ichiro’s stats will measure up, but he’s going in regardless.

Manny will be in because writers don’t pay much attention to OF defense and he’s a character (in a good way as opposed to a Barry Bonds way). Plus he’s one of the better RH hitters ever.

Nomar probably won’t get much writer consideration at this point. He fell too far from a very high peak and has hung around too long since then. Think Dale Murphy.

Giambi has no chance from the writers. He’ll be a victim of the high offense “Steroid” era even if the writers look past his personal transgressions. In my mind, he’s a lesser candidate than Bagwell, Thomas and Thome and there are whisperings that they’ll have issues getting in.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 10, 2008 5:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ichiro

Even if you discount his Japanese playing days I believe Ichiro is a first-ballot hall-of-famer. His play in america has been near flawless. He has never hit below 200 hits. He’s the first ever japanese born position player. He has the record for most hits in a single season, 262. He’s a 7-time gold-glove award winner. He’s a 7-time all-star game participant. And he still has a good 5 years ahead of him.

by seatownsports on Jun 10, 2008 9:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope Ichiro gets in.

His induction speech will be a thing of legend.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Jun 11, 2008 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

R.J., I have to take issue with your assessments of Giambi and Ichiro.

Giambi is never, ever going to get in — his “clean reputation” won’t change the fact that he was one of the original poster boys for steroid abuse, and he played in an era of other elite first basemen (Thomas, Bagwell, Thome) whose names were never besmirched. He’ll be limping past 400 HR, while Thome (seen by many as on the bubble) is approaching 550, and he may not make it to 2000 hits by the end of 2010. With questionable “achievements,” he needs all the intangibles pulling for him, and they’re not, and the voters don’t like one-dimensional players anyway.

As for Ichiro, if he can play adequately through his tenth season in 2010, he’ll reach 2000 hits, and he’ll be in. The voters will be eager to make a historic inductee out of the Japanese import and will consider his stellar career in Japan. He’s been an electrifying player, and he’ll get in.

by Jay on Jun 11, 2008 6:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fair points

I honestly don’t think GIambi will get in, but I’m not sure if his steroids usage would play in as much as it will with Bonds. As you pointed out GIambi just isn’t qualified.

I agree on Ichiro, he definitely should go.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 12, 2008 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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