Looking at it like the voters seem to:

There’s no need to even talk about Griffey. He was in as soon as he became eligible. The only things that could have stopped him were a Pete Rose moment or an OJ moment. His inability to stay healthy and his recent horrendous play won’t even push him to a second ballot.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Ichiro will go in to the Hall of Fame – most likely first ballot. He’s unique, he gets lots of hits (definitely over 3000 when you count Japan – chance at 3000 just in the US), he’s seen as a pioneer (first Japanese position player star), he gunned down Terence Long at 3b. I think by the time he’s done, Ichiro’s stats will measure up, but he’s going in regardless.

Manny will be in because writers don’t pay much attention to OF defense and he’s a character (in a good way as opposed to a Barry Bonds way). Plus he’s one of the better RH hitters ever.

Nomar probably won’t get much writer consideration at this point. He fell too far from a very high peak and has hung around too long since then. Think Dale Murphy.

Giambi has no chance from the writers. He’ll be a victim of the high offense “Steroid” era even if the writers look past his personal transgressions. In my mind, he’s a lesser candidate than Bagwell, Thomas and Thome and there are whisperings that they’ll have issues getting in.

Even if you discount his Japanese playing days I believe Ichiro is a first-ballot hall-of-famer. His play in america has been near flawless. He has never hit below 200 hits. He’s the first ever japanese born position player. He has the record for most hits in a single season, 262. He’s a 7-time gold-glove award winner. He’s a 7-time all-star game participant. And he still has a good 5 years ahead of him.

R.J., I have to take issue with your assessments of Giambi and Ichiro.

Giambi is never, ever going to get in — his “clean reputation” won’t change the fact that he was one of the original poster boys for steroid abuse, and he played in an era of other elite first basemen (Thomas, Bagwell, Thome) whose names were never besmirched. He’ll be limping past 400 HR, while Thome (seen by many as on the bubble) is approaching 550, and he may not make it to 2000 hits by the end of 2010. With questionable “achievements,” he needs all the intangibles pulling for him, and they’re not, and the voters don’t like one-dimensional players anyway.

As for Ichiro, if he can play adequately through his tenth season in 2010, he’ll reach 2000 hits, and he’ll be in. The voters will be eager to make a historic inductee out of the Japanese import and will consider his stellar career in Japan. He’s been an electrifying player, and he’ll get in.