Is Any Record Unbreakable?

by R.J. Anderson on May 15, 2008 7:09 PM EDT

I'm just about over my illness so this should be the last day you guys go without any legit posts from me. To open some discussion up though I'd like to pose the question; is any record unbreakable? Alex Rodriguez will probably break Barry Bonds, one day someone will hit .400 and in 57 straight, and maybe someone will win nearly 600 -- however unlikely that seems. It seems improbable that a record can truly stand
the test of decades or centuries, so again I ask: is any record really unbreakable?

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Funny you bring it up

I had some stuff scribbled in my notebook for use in my column after I heard Buster Olney declare that Greg Maddux would be the last 350 game winner. But it hasn’t actually gone anywhere yet.

One thing I had in mind, but I wasn’t able to hammer out was an adaption of Clarke’s First Law. [i]When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. [/i] There’s a lot of truth there that translates to the situation at hand. We’ve heard before that certain milestones were unattainable only to later watch smebody pass it by. The “unbreakable” consecutive games streak, Maris’ 61, Aaron’s HR record.

I don’t think any record is “unbreakable” just because we don’t know how the game will evolve or what kind of unique talent is on his way in the near or even distant future.

I would say that it’s UNLIKELY that anybody will pass Cy at 511 wins, 316 losses, or 749 complete games, Ed Walsh at 1.82 ERA, Cobb at .366 BA, Sam Crawford at 309 triples. The game is just extremely different than when they were set. We might watch another Rose collect a ton of hits (picture Ichiro playing his entire career in the US), or another Nolan Ryan, or another Bonds or ARod smacking HR’s left and right. I don’t know if we’ll ever see pre-1920 pitching durability or batting averages.

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain

by JM Barten on May 15, 2008 7:50 PM EDT reply actions

Silly Records

This also presumes that we are only talking about “real” records. For example, Fernando Tatis (I’m pretty sure) hit two grand slams in one inning. I feel fairly confident stating that no one will ever break that record. But I generally agree with JM in that we can’t really say what the game will become.

As far as “real” records that will probably stand, I’d say Rickey Henderson’s career stolen base record won’t ever be touched, because of how the game has changed.

by DaveMcD on May 15, 2008 9:13 PM EDT reply actions

At some point though, don't you think the game could shift back?

I think this gets into what the comment below mine talks about, regarding possible rule changes though.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 15, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd agree...

there is no record that is “unbreakable” as a rule. Any record could be broken. Now there are certainly some that are more likely (such as the Bonds HR mark) to be broken than others (Cy’s wins record). That doesn’t mean that there is an untouchable record.

The real question that we have to ask is how long will organized baseball exist? We’re only ~120 years into things. If we go another thousand or so, there’s no telling what amazing things might eventually happen. Also the possibility of a schedule change (more games maybe, although I think that’s a longshot) or rules change makes predictions much trickier.

by TexasTiger on May 15, 2008 10:15 PM EDT reply actions

There are some records that couldn’t really be broken the way that the game is played now. But then again, in the Dead Ball Era, no one thought that anyone would ever break the 25 HR barrier. Rickey Henderson’s SB record might not fall in the next 20 years because of the way the game is played now, but in 20 years, maybe the game shifts back to where SBs are more important and someone comes along who can steal them all day long.

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats

by pizzacutter on May 16, 2008 1:40 AM EDT reply actions

consecutive no hitters

I can’t imagine anybody throwing three consecutive no hitters in a season to break the Johnny Vander Meer record. I don’t think the game will ever shift again to give the pitchers such an advantage to make it possible.

by Dex on May 21, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions