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On Edwin Jackson

To state the obvious, he’s not going to possess a 0.93 WHIP or 0.64 ERA for the rest of the year, month, and probably not even the week. His numbers thus far are simply a mirage and the lake that lies ahead is actually a patch of quicksand. He’s going to sink, and fast. Take a look at Jackson’s core ratios: H/9, K/9, BB/9, K/BB.

Jackson081_medium

I’m sure you notice that Jackson’s strikeout rates have fallen along with his walk rate, and that his K/BB rate has only marginally increased. Note his absurdly low hit per nine totals as well, which of course leads me to the trend stats:

Jackson082_medium

By now, if you’ve been reading me for any amount of time, you know how much I stress the old xBABIP – BABIP method of finding whether a pitcher is lucky or unlucky so you can surely guess my feelings on Jackson’s chances of continuing his success, even if it has only saved him five hits (using (xBABIP*chances)-(BABIP*chances) to derive projected hits). Factor in that Jackson’s not striking more people out, but is thankfully walking less but hasn’t been hit like he will be, and frankly I’m not overly optimistic on his chances of being overly successful going forward.

0 recs | Comment 11 comments

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BABIP and Player Styles

Nov 2008 by R.J. Anderson - 20 comments

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Check out his IF/F rate

Edwin Jackson's BABIP isn't low because of balls being hit right at guys or tremendous defense. Instead, it's because 14 of the 18 flyballs he's allowed this year have been of the infield popup variety, and those are the easiest out in baseball.

Obviously, Jackson's not going to induce popups at this rate all season, but it is worth contemplating whether we should really expect all these infield popups to regress into being hits, when they really have no chance of missing fielders in the first place.

You have to look beyond basic per nine ratios to project success or failure going forward. In some cases, a complete regression is appropriate, but there are exceptions. Jackson's infield popup rate suggests that there may be some real improvement that isn't being reflected in his per nine ratios just yet.

by davidcameron on Apr 14, 2008 1:30 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hi David,

Do you believe nearly 80% of his flyballs will continue to be of the infield variety? His previous career higher was 15%. While I don't believe infield flyballs will become hits I do believe they'll become outfield flyballs or homeruns.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 14, 2008 2:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why?

I wrote about Jackson's IF/F rate at USSM last week, so don't worry, I'm well aware of his career average, as well as the league average for that aspect of the game.

I'll answer your question with another question - why do you believe that infield flies are a subset of outfield flies? Have you seen any research showing that variations in infield fly rate correspond to similar variations in outfield fly rate?

The assumption here seems to be that these infield popups were mediocre pitches that hitters just put swings on, popping up a ball that they could have otherwise driven. But why are we making that assumption?

by davidcameron on Apr 14, 2008 7:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Because Jackson is a mediocre pitcher? For now he's been able to mess hitters up with his high fastball, but why is he just now reaching the point where he gets so many pop ups? Obviously it's early and the % will go down sooner than later, but what in your mind is the different between the league average Jackson and the extreme Jackson? I'd be willing to bet hitters will catch up with him soon enough just based on what we know about Jackson in the past.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 14, 2008 7:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay

So, if we took this exact same early season performance and renamed it "Johan Santana" instead of "Edwin Jackson", would you have the same opinion. If not, why not - it's the exact same performance, after all.

I get that you think Edwin Jackson sucks. That's fine - that's not what I'm talking about here. I'm just wondering why you're willing to make the assumption that infield flies are a subset of outfield flies and are likely to regress into home runs eventually. I haven't seen any research that supports that kind of assumption. The fact that his IF/F rate will drop (and that's not even a question) does not inherently mean that those infield flies will become OF flies, and that's the part of this assumption that I'm challenging.

by davidcameron on Apr 14, 2008 8:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It’s just a hunch, I don’t think anyone can keep a INF/F% that high.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 3:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nobody thinks Edwin Jackson is a .63 ERA pitcher. But he wasn’t a 5.76 ERA pitcher last year. (Thanks .341 BABIP!). Both FIP and xFIP put it around 5.00. Given an improved K/BB, his “deserved” ERA is more in the 4.50 range, even if you think his IF/F so far is meaningless. RJ, I’m not sure what you meant by “overly successful”, but Jackson’s definitely a better pitcher than most people think. But no, he’s not a star.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 15, 2008 6:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He should be fine as a back-end starter, I’m just attempting to temper the expectations that he’s finally “becoming an ace.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 3:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good stuff, R.J.

I even stole the idea and applied it to Justin Germano.

by Richard Wade on Apr 16, 2008 4:21 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just a hunch?

Just a hunch? C’mon, you can do better than that.

You can’t use statistical analysis and then resort to “just a hunch” when challenged. You sound like the guys who say Jim Rice is a hall of famer now! LOL.

Why not say, “hmm. That information regarding infield pop ups is interesting. I’ve never thought about it that way. But the evdience has shown that over time a player’s BABIP reverts to his xBABIP. And when that happens, Jackson’s going to be looking a lot more mediocre.”

Or you could say, “we need someone to do some research on this infield fly stuff.”

Anyway, good article, and very interesting rebuttal david

by noseeum on Apr 19, 2008 12:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Help me out a little bit: I’ve read elsewhere that league average babip is about .290. Wouldnt Tampa’s improved defense do quite a bit to account for .290 – .274 (which is Edwin’s babip as of 5/14)?

Also say you have a pitcher whose “game score” over 8 games is 3, 3, 10, 3, 10, 10, 3, 3 with a lower number being a better game. Is that pitcher better or worse for your team in terms of expected wins than a pitcher who goes 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6? I would think that on a relatively low scoring team, as the Rays have been so far (unfortunately), the first pitcher would be more desirable.

Lastly, is there any research out there on game by game babip vs season averages? What is fundamentally different about a pitcher who hovers around a .300 babip every game vs one who pitches games at a .100 half the time and .500 babip the other half? How consistent is the leauge as a whole?

by pmoc on May 14, 2008 9:53 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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