Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: World Soccer Digest for Soccer Fans!

Probables: Grady Sizemore

As baseball fans, we always love to hear the comparisons between past, present, and in some cases future major leaguers. It's part of the reason PECOTA is so popular, along with it's accuracy of predicting future seasons. For that reason I'd like to present "Probables", an "all-in-one" look at a certain player's short term future predictions, and what better way to lead it off but by taking a look at one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, Grady Sizemore.

 

Star-divide

 

Please do note that I'm looking for the closest match that shares the position, in some cases just OF or just MI/CI.

PECOTA: Ray Lankford

Bill James Similarity Score (by age): Duke Snider

Lahman Database match: Reggie Sanders

SaberScouting comparison: Marquis Grissom

What we'll attempt to do with our set of comparisons is see what Sizemore could do in the next few seasons. 

At the age of 25 though, the fact is that Sizemore is the best player of the bunch, even better than Snider, and to be fair Sizemore has been in the majors longer than all of the players were except for Snider. Here's how each player progressed from ages 25 to 27.

Sizemore_medium

Realistically looking at Sizemore's next three seasons  I think we can eliminate a Snider like power onset as well as Grissom's stolen base totals, leaving us to choose between Sanders and Lankford. A run of 20/20 seasons with a possible 30/30 season doesn't seem too far out of reach for Sizemore who hit 28 homeruns just two seasons ago and stole 33 bases last season.

If Sizemore's career continues on the Sanders/Lankford path he could end up with a career OPS+ around the 120 mark, a decrease from his current mark.

0 recs  |  Comment 1 comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Interesting, but it might help if you posted Sizemore's numbers as well.

by Jay on Apr 14, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Defensive Projections Take 2
The Baseball Nation Sim League has an opening
Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright