Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: World Soccer Digest for Soccer Fans!

MINER Projections

I haven't made much effort to promote this, but last fall I developed a new projection system.  The occasion was John Burnson's book The Graphical Player, for which he commissioned the forecasts.

The reason I'm writing about it now is that David Appelman has been kind enough to include my projections along with some other better-known, better-established (and maybe just better) systems on FanGraphs.  Thanks John and David!

Here's a quick overview of what MINER is, and what makes it different:

  • It's a regression-based system, and it makes no effort to identify player types, or similar players.  In fact, it's based almost entirely on top of Marcel.

  • I make extensive use of batted-ball data, so that BABIP depends on the player's distribution of batted balls, and pitcher HR allowed is based on fly balls allowed.  (Among other things.)

  • I also make extensive use of level- and park-adjusted minor league data, including batted ball data.

  • There is some effort to project playing time: in addition to basing projections on past playing time, I've docked players PAs and IPs if they are projected to perform well below replacement for their position, and the amount they are docked depends on just how bad they are projected to be.  This is very approximate, especially since I am only using offensive numbers to determine their production relative to replacement.

  • In The Graphical Player, there are three years of projections and three tiers--20th, 50th, and 80th percentile.  FanGraphs is publishing just the one.  For anything beyond the median 2008 forecasts, well...you'll have to buy the book.

For now, I've also published the spreadsheets as google docs.  As David was including them on FanGraphs, an incredibly obvious bug popped out; when that is resolved, I'll publish Excel files that you can play with.  In the meantime, you'll find the Google Docs here and here.

Enjoy!

0 recs  |  Comment 0 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"
Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter
Criminals of WAR
Ten statisticians you should know about

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright