Mets to Sign K-Rod

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 5:16 PM EST Comment 45 comments

Looks like 3/37 with a fourth year vesting option worth 14 million. That's not nearly as high as some were expecting, especially for the "Closer with the best single season ever blah blah" saves record holder. Rodriguez' had a slightly down year (by his standards) and lost a few ticks on his fastball (perhaps injury related), and even saw less swinging strikes, although still well above average.

Nonetheless, the Mets are paying for about 2 WAR each season (assuming it's roughly 13.3 annually) and Rodriguez was worth roughly 12 NLRS last season. A quick check of our leveraged runs saved post from a while ago has him worth 2.9 WAR. Even if you assume Rodriguez is about to go downhill and lose 0.3 WAR annually beginning next season, his total worth would be 51 million. That's exactly the maximum amount the Mets can pay him.

The Mets are high up on the win and revenue curves, and while we can debate the merits of using a closer versus using a relief ace all day, this is their choice. They didn't overpay, and barring an injury Rodriguez should be worth the money. Good deal for Omar Minaya and the Mets.

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Even if you assume Rodriguez is about to go downhill and lose 0.3 WAR annually beginning next season, his total worth would be 51 million. That's exactly the maximum amount the Mets can pay him.

Wow. Is that a coincidence?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Dec 9, 2008 5:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Unless Omar Minaya is suddenly familiar with replacement level thinking.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In other words.

Yes. Total coincidence.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Dec 9, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. I keep thinking maybe he's brightened up.

And realize that can’t be possible.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Dec 9, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming he's not...

Is this a sign that FAs will be signing for less than we thought they would? Or is it a sign that GMs are suddenly not overrating closers?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps a combination?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish

But most of the rumors floating around about the other players we’re interested in tell me it’s not.

by Gina on Dec 9, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My quick calculation...

Assuming 2.75 ERA, 72 IP, 1.8 LI (typical for closers)…

RAR = (4.75 – 2.75) / 9 × 72 × 1.8 = 2.9 WAR

Considering aging and injury issues, this deal seems extremely reasonable (surprisingly), and is especially good for a team with significant bullpen needs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And if this deal sets the market for relievers, teams looking to buy a bullpen this off-season should be quite happy.

If i were Omar Minaya, I might even go after someone else. Fuentes for $8MM/yr?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The way I see it Wood gets 2/20 with vesting option, Fuentes around the same and Hoffman, Lyon might end up poor.

by viktor06 on Dec 9, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh, I didn't get this figure at all.

Using Marcels (66 IP) and ERA (much kinder to him than FIP), and lgERA*1.07 as replacement level, I get 9.76 RAR * 1.8 LI = 17.6 RAR. FIP likes him less. I don’t know how to project tRA from Marcels…

Needless to so, from that perspective, it looks like the Mets overpaid, even if he doesn’t decline at all. Not terribly much, but still.

Where did I go wrong?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 6:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can you share all the numbers?

What’s his projected ERA that you used? What did you use as lgERA?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Tango has Marcels lgERA as 4.3.

The Marcels projection for K-Rod is 3.27 ERA over 66 innings.

So (4.3*1.07-3.27) times 66/9 = 9.76 RAR

9.76 * 1.8 LI = ~17.6 RAR.

I downloaded my Marcels and did my own FIP before Fangraphs posted it. His FIP-RAR (using the same lgERA) w/o leverage is 8.27.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, MLB league ERA was 4.32 last year, didn't realize that.

It was about 4.50 the two years prior, so I’d use at least 4.40, since much of KRod’s performance that’s put into Marcel came in a higher run environment. But I’m mostly convinced.

tERA* the past three years:
2.80
3.25
3.73

A 3.25 ERA seems quite reasonable.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can't get a tRA from Marcels.

I would use the past three years of tRA*, do a Marcel (you know, weight appropriately and regress), and multiply by .92 (to get it on the ERA scale).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In the LRS post I used tRA.

I didn’t use the Marcels projection, I simply estimated -0.3 runs off from that number heading forward.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How long until...

K-Rod is “only” on pace for 40-some saves and everyone wonders what happened to him?

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats

by pizzacutter on Dec 9, 2008 6:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

Although, as long as he blows less than one game per week, Mets fans will love him.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The monkeys think he deserves 2/$3.1M.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a DH in a throwaway year you could do worse.

He’ll hit some homeruns, take some walks, and cure some computer problems.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm slow

that anti-virus comment didn’t hit me until now

by VictorW on Dec 9, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Norton's slows things down, too

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He just can't make it New York.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

in*

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The pressure of the big stage! The pressure of the big contract!

by VictorW on Dec 9, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lord help his soul if he blows a save on opening day.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope he blows a save on a Beltran error >:(

by Graham on Dec 9, 2008 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltran owns (Felix incident withstanding) and I hope Bossman Junior becomes every bit as good as him.

/ducks

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just in time to bolt to NY for 9 figures?

by VictorW on Dec 9, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would hurt my heart.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No.

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 9, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I want to clone him and take the clone back in time to replace Mike Cameron with him so I get to watch two Carlos Beltrans smashing into one another

by Graham on Dec 9, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

That's the kindest thing you've ever wrote about him.

You’re coming around!

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like him before he murdered everything I held dear

by Graham on Dec 9, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BJ is lazy

I kid, I kid… :)

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 9, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll miss K-Rod

Boston loved him.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 9, 2008 7:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

as a Reds fan

this makes me want to barf.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 9, 2008 8:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great deal for the Mets.

Now we just lay in wait for Omar to sign Garland or Raul.

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 9, 2008 8:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Both.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why say such hurtful things.

by Gina on Dec 9, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have nothing against the Mets, seriously.

I just think its going to happen. Garland has the stupid “innings eater” label attached to him, and the Mets have a great top of rotation with Santana-Pelfrey, but the Mets could use one more starter. I also don’t think the Mets are going to go into the season with platoons at both corner OF spots or make Murphy the starting LF.

For the sake of Mets fans, I hope it doesn’t happen (I’d much rather Raul Ibanez on the Cubs).

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 9, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs