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Don't Sell Yourself Short, Jhonny

Most people know what this is:

DH | 1B | LF | RF | 3B | CF | 2B | SS | CA

Bill James defensive spectrum, to which he offered the observation that moves to the left are generally successful while moves to the right almost never work. With shortstop being one of the more difficult positions, it's no mystery why so many players struggle at the position. Sometimes these players simply don't possess the bat to play third and move to second (or the bench) while others are able to shift from shortstop to third and be better for it.

In 2008 Jhonny Peralta cost his team a win thanks to his defensive inabilities in the six hole. Chone Smith projects him to be -8 in 2009. Luckily for the Indians, Peralta is a very good hitter, driven largely by steady line drive rates and average on balls in play. Peralta decreased his walk and strikeout ratios last season, becoming far more aggressive outside of the strike zone. With Peralta's offensive production, the case can be made that he needs to shift to third.

When the Indians made the decision to replace Omar Vizquel with Jhonny Peralta, they were not simply replacing old with youth, but instead changing the positional asset entirely. Not that many could have matched Vizquel’s defense, but at the same time, not too many shortstops can match Peralta’s offensive output, in fact only a handful.

Take a piece of paper and write down the number of shortstops you think topped Peralta’s .356 wOBA. I’ll wait…okay, by now you should have your number, if you wrote down seven, you probably cheated. Those seven are, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Mike Aviles, Stephen Drew, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes, and Cristian Guzman. The Indians are rumored to have some interest in adding a second baseman, effectively shifting incumbent Asdrubal Cabrera to shortstop and Peralta to third base, that or perhaps adding a shortstop and leaving Cabrera to be.

Peralta to third should be an upgrade over the Andy Marte/Casey Blake/Jamey Carroll ragtag band that graced the Indians hot corner in 2008. Combined the group had a run value per 600 plate appearances of -13.07, compare that to Peralta’s 12.20 RV600 and that’s a difference of 25.27 runs, or 2.5 wins. Even if you think Peralta will be worth negative five runs defensively, that is still a 2 win upgrade.

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I don't know why Peralta wasn't moved to 3rd already

They should have done just after trading Blake. The Indians really, really don’t have anyone who can play SS or 2b?

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 6, 2008 3:40 PM EST reply actions  

couple of questions

first off, what is your source for wOBA? The reason I ask is that Firstinning.com says Peralta’s wOBA in 2008 was .343, and fangraphs says it was .347, both of which are significantly lower than the .356 in your article.

It seems to me that if 3 different well-respected sites have a different value for the same player for the same “stat”, it really, really makes me question how useful that stat is for analysis. Not having studied wOBA much, I have no idea why this would be, but I’d imagine the difference is something simple like park factors from different sources being applied, but it still makes me cringe. Some technique should probably be developed to prevent this.

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Dec 6, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions  

StatCorner.

I don’t use First Inning, so I’m unsure of how their wOBA is derived, but the only difference between FG and SC are the inclusion of reached based on error data in the SC formula.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 6, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

How to look at the differences...

Obviously, including SB/CS data is important at some point, whether you include it in wOBA or whether you treat it separately as part of baserunning. RBOE is more philosophical, and I’m in favor of including it in wOBA. We give credit for hits against slow defenses, and hitters DO have a skill at inducing RBOE, thanks to running speed and batted ball speed. Sure, some RBOE are total flukes, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives.

Now, if you’re giving credit to batters for RBOEs, the league-wide average wOBA will be higher. So, when converting wOBA to RAR, you need to use a higher league wOBA. I’m not sure what fangraphs’ average wOBA for 2008 is compared to statcorner’s… Anyone know?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 7, 2008 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

well, average wOBA (by definition) should be equal to

the league average OBA for the year. If it isn’t, there is an error in the implementation.

Of course, that opens the can of worms about whether ROE should be included in “league average OBA” that is used to set the baseline. I guess it’s not that big of a deal as long as it is made abundantly clear how the stat is calculated, and whenever it is referenced in an article it is called “fangraphs wOBA” or “statcorner wOBA” or “random guy’s spreadsheet’s wOBA implementation” so that people aren’t confused, but it would be nice if there was a set definition for a stat and derivations were called something else. wOBA1or wOBA.FG or something.

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Dec 7, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions  

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