Is Khalil Greene Worth Trading For?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 12:30 PM EST

[Ed note: This was written prior to Greene being traded to St. Louis, analysis on the move to come later]

Short answer: yes.

Greene's contract plays as much of a part in his availability as his 2008 performance. Greene won't play much of a role on the next competitive Padres team since he's only signed through 2009. His 6.5 million price tag doesn't help matters either. Despite an awful offensive season, in which his wOBA was a mere .264, or roughly -2.4 wins, Greene still managed to be worth about a half of a win defensively. Add in a replacement level and positional adjustment, and you have a measly 1.1 WAR player, a value of 5.24 million last season.

The 2008 offensive collapse starts with BABIP. Traditionally shy of .300, Greene's BABIP dropped to the low-.260's despite his highest line drive percentage in years. Naturally, each of Greene's slash stats suffered because of it. Walks have never been a big part of Greene's game, 2004 and 2006 withstanding, and thus his on-base percentage relies heavily on batting average. Greene's ISO went from a career high in 2007 (.214) to a career low (.126) and with such a low amount of doubles compared to years prior, it would seem Greene was simply unlucky.

Greene should be entering his prime, and coming off of a weak season it's possible he's more likely to ink an extension than he was just 12 months ago. If Greene matches his Marcel projection, he'll be worth -15.3 runs offensively, and if he matches his Chone defensive projection he'll be worth 5 runs defensively. Add in the aforementioned positional and replacement level adjustments and Greene is a 1.97 WAR player, that would make him worth nearly 10 million next season. If Greene were to lose 0.3 WAR each season thereafter, he'd be worth roughly 35 million through 2012.

And to think, we haven't even addressed moving from PetCo to someplace that almost certainly will make his raw statistics look better. Here's a look at Greene's wOBA*-wOBA for the past few seasons (Note: I quoted FanGraphs wOBA earlier in the piece, Stat Corner's wOBA goes one step further and includes RBOE)

Year	wOBA	wOBA*	Difference
2003	0.304	0.311	0.007
2004	0.344	0.351	0.007
2005	0.324	0.332	0.008
2006	0.334	0.342	0.008
2007	0.329	0.339	0.01
2008	0.268	0.274	0.006

Odds are, whatever team acquires Greene won't regret it.

References:

Stat Corner

Fangraphs

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Comments

Marcel doesn't know about parks, so it really underrates Greene.

What’s wOBA*?

My value estimate was:
-.75 hitting
+.75 position
+.5 fielding
2.5 WAR player overall.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 12:43 PM EST reply actions

park adjusted wOBA

Adopted Giant: Aaron King

Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat

by baetown415 on Dec 4, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

You also haven't address his self inflicted broken hand

Which is the reason I was down on the Olsen/Greene trade. And we’re desperate for SS and full of undeveloped 4/5 starters.

This will be my signature until the Orioles get a real SS.

by CoachOfEarl on Dec 4, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Good Move

I like this move for the Cardinals. I see very little downside and a lot of upside to this deal.

Downside: He does not bound back and gets injured at some point. However Izturis last year, had about a good a year as he could have and was just about as bad as Greene was last year.

Upside: the guy has good defensive skills, and has the ability to hit 25 hr and 100 rbi. If Greene can put up some power numbers, the whole Cardinals line up will be better

by thoran85 on Dec 4, 2008 4:05 PM EST reply actions

Interesting analysis

Justin Inaz’s numbers have Greene as a replacement-level player last year. He’s -10 runs at the plate, +5 runs on defense, and +5 for positional adjustment. Is he still worth trading for? Perhaps, depending (as always) on the cost. Of course what’s more relevant is how he’ll perform next year than how he performed last year and I’m not entirely sure if Justin’s numbers are park-adjusted or not, but Busch isn’t THAT much more hitter-friendly than PetCo is. It’s still likely he’ll be worth close to the $6.5 M he’s owed next season but I wonder what your conclusion would’ve been had you used Justin’s ’08 numbers instead.

by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 9:48 PM EST reply actions