Slugging and Slicing

by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 31, 2008 1:30 AM EST Comment 2 comments

For those of you who watched my quasi-realtime stream of data (errors) in the Bob Howry thread, here's the straight dope.

Percent (rate) of Pitches thrown in each slice
Swing Rate in each slice
In Play Rate (on swings) in each slice
Slugging Rate (on balls in play/homers) in each slice

The slices are each 8 inches wide - with 4 inches on each "side" of the plate. Fat, Sides, Edges, Off, Wide, Other. Other is ultra wide of the zone or, simply, too high or low.

The bugs in my logic from before have been corrected, but the discussion on how high/low to set the slice borders (not just the width) is far from over. So, using each hitter's average top and bottom zone (as set by the PITCHf/x operator), let's see how things fall-out this time.

First, a reminder on what the slices look like ("other" is not shown):

For each step, I do exclude some pitches. For Step 1, getting all pitches, and all other steps, I exclude these pitches:

and a.event not in

('Batter Interference','Catcher Interference',

'Fan interference','Hit By Pitch')

and a.des not like '%caught steal%'

and a.des not like '%pick% off%'

and a.des not like '%steals%'

For step two, I just keep the swings

t.event in ('SS','F','X','HR')

and a.event not in

('Batter Interference','Catcher Interference',

'Fan interference','Hit By Pitch')

and a.des not like '%caught steal%'

and a.des not like '%pick% off%' and a.des not like '%steals%'

For steps three and four (really one step) I only count X and HR to arrive at slugging.

The results:

Side	Slice	#	Rate	Swings	Swing Rate	In Play	In Play Rate	Total Bases	SLG	TB/Pitch
Inside	Fat	92,559	0.091	64,645	0.698	32,018	0.495	19,611	0.612	0.212
Inside	Side	70,975	0.070	47,034	0.663	22,628	0.481	12,819	0.567	0.181
Inside	Edge	49,635	0.049	28,123	0.567	12,143	0.432	5,672	0.467	0.114
Inside	Off	30,752	0.030	12,043	0.392	3,919	0.325	1,549	0.395	0.050
Inside	Wide	16,077	0.016	3,401	0.212	754	0.222	232	0.308	0.014
Inside	Other	119,814	0.118	34,921	0.291	7,943	0.227	3,544	0.446	0.030

Side	Slice	#	Rate	Swings	Swing Rate	In Play	In Play Rate	Total Bases	SLG	TB/Pitch
Outside	Fat	109,757	0.108	75,444	0.687	37,029	0.491	21,453	0.579	0.195
Outside	Side	113,535	0.112	70,777	0.623	33,841	0.478	17,147	0.507	0.151
Outside	Edge	97,127	0.096	49,472	0.509	22,090	0.447	9,179	0.416	0.095
Outside	Off	68,265	0.067	23,147	0.339	9,161	0.396	3,317	0.362	0.049
Outside	Wide	38,481	0.038	7,081	0.184	2,279	0.322	712	0.312	0.019
Outside	Other	205,483	0.203	49,006	0.238	13,057	0.266	4,906	0.376	0.024

Slice	#	Rate	Swings	Swing Rate	In Play	In Play Rate	Total Bases	SLG	TB/Pitch
Fat	202,316	0.200	140,089	0.692	69,047	0.493	41,064	0.595	0.203
Side	184,510	0.182	117,811	0.639	56,469	0.479	29,966	0.531	0.162
Edge	146,762	0.145	77,595	0.529	34,233	0.441	14,851	0.434	0.101
Off	99,017	0.098	35,190	0.355	13,080	0.372	4,866	0.372	0.049
Wide	54,558	0.054	10,482	0.192	3,033	0.289	944	0.311	0.017
Other	325,297	0.321	83,927	0.258	21,000	0.250	8,450	0.402	0.026

	#	Rate	Swings	Swing Rate	In Play	In Play Rate	Total Bases	SLG	TB/Pitch
Inside	379,812	0.375	190,167	0.501	79,405	0.418	43,427	0.547	0.114
Outside	632,648	0.625	274,927	0.435	117,457	0.427	56,714	0.483	0.090
All Pitches	1,012,460	1.000	465,094	0.459	196,862	0.423	100,141	0.509	0.099

OK, this makes much better sense now. The "Other" and the top/bottom cut-off that plays a big part in creating it is subject to change, but I think I've nuked the stupid errors.

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Comments

Location and type of pitch?

Any data on pitches that are above and below the zone and any data correlating type of pitch swung at? For example what % of FB high outof the zone are swung at and put in play or missed. Great stuff if I can figure it out…:-)

Luis Venitucci

by adenzeno on Jan 4, 2009 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I haven’t incorporated that stuff here – yet – but I did some work on related questions at Cubs f/x – think Geoff Jenkins on the low and Corey Patterson on the high. Here are some examples.

http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/05/aprils-dirt.html
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/03/reed-johnson-by-pitch-location.html
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/02/ankles-and-dirt.html
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/02/high-heat.html
http://www.cubsfx.com/2007/09/swing-low-sweet-chariot-geoff-jenkins.html
http://www.cubsfx.com/2007/09/matter-of-style-and-judgment.html

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 4, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs