Sox Sign Bard and Penny

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2008 12:00 PM EST

In case you didn't know, the Red Sox are smart. Peter's going to cover the risk/reward involved for large market teams at a later date, so instead of harping on that, I'm simply going to evaluate the signings of Brad Penny and Josh Bard.

Penny's contract is for a base of five million and if he completes 160 innings that increases to eight million. A number of right shoulder pains limited Penny to an atrocious 2008. Thankfully, Penny compounded the issues by pitching through pain and seeing the worst season of his career, rather than taking some time off and letting his body heal. If you pin most of the ineffectiveness on his injuries, then you should expect Penny to perform similarly to his 2007/2006 self: ~180 innings, ~3.7 FIP. If that does happen, Penny will be worth more than double his actual earnings. Marcels says 4.11 FIP and 127 innings, which still puts the Red Sox earning money from the deal. That's what you call a good contract.

Bard had an unlucky time with batted balls last season, and ended up being exiled from San Diego. Bard's last stint in Boston ended abruptly due to his flawed handling of knuckleballs. George Kottaras figures to be the Red Sox's back-up catcher and he handled Charlie Zink in Pawtucket last season. Bard's only being paid 1.6 million, or a little less than a half of a win. Considering Bard has averaged a little over 1 WAR per season during his career, I think it's a safe bet to assume Bard will be worth at least 0.5 WAR next season.

Add in the fact that the Sox can simply squat on the deals if disaster strikes, and really, how can they go wrong here?

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If we bring back Tek, I'm interested to see if we will be asking Tek to catch knucklers.

He did it back at the turn of the century. I’d rather give him a chance again than see Bard struggle again.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 30, 2008 5:43 PM EST reply actions

When you talk about projections for a player, why do you use Marcel?

Tango recognizes its severe limitations. Chone has Penny at a 4.81 ERA and only 131 ip. Is that a brilliant signing for $5M+3?

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 30, 2008 8:02 PM EST reply actions

I think it is roughly appropriate given his likely WAR

But nothing to get excited about. The Red Sox front office does some really impressive things. This isn’t one of them. This is more of a ho-hum, I guess they got him for about what he’s worth signing.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 30, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions