From colintj at South Side Sox. Find a player's position on the left side and find that player's fielding ability relative to his position along the top. The corresponding cell tells you what a player has to hit in terms of wOBA in order to be a league-average player, overall. Remember, wOBA is on the OBP scale, where average is about .335. Good stuff.
about 1 year ago
Sky Kalkman
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Comparing extremes...
A +1 win catcher can have a .286 wOBA (that’s really really crappy) and be as valuable as a -1 win first baseman with a .384 wOBA (that’s really really good).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 3, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm.... I can't find the post there
So is this using positional offensive averages rather than a post-offense-and-defense positional adjustment?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
here's the link
http://www.southsidesox.com/2008/12/1/676779/link-dump-12-1
And it uses Tango’s position adjustments, I’m pretty sure.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 3, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if so, shouldn't 3B be the same as 2B and CF?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Given that 10 points of wOBA is a five-run gap, things look good, though. And everything else lines up. I’m sure colin will see this eventually and give us a heads up.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 3, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I used -.25 for 3B
i kind of like it better intuitively, but i intended to use Tango’s numbers.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 3, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice job anyway
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ty
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 3, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good... I hope that didn't sound like a backhanded compliment
someone at Royals review was asking if these were empirical averages, and I expained about Tango’s adjustments, but just for the heck of it, I’m pluggin in the positional splits from b-r — its pretty surprising how very close they are.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, they shouldn't be crazy different.
DH is by far the largest difference.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they should be pretty close
speaks to how good the model is, really.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 4, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Link for defensive stats?
Does anybody have a link to defensive wins stats?
by KMils on Dec 3, 2008 1:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So much out there
Of the free stuff that is in plays/runs format already (so you don’t have to convert them yourself)
Justin has total value stats at the link… go to position players and look at defensive runs… to convert to wins, divide the number of runs by 10.5 (or 10 for short.
If you don’t like that, check out Pintos Probabilistic Model of Range archives. Take the players out-expected outs, then multiply by .8 to get runs, then divide by 10.5 to get wins (might want to prorate that number over a full season if the player didn’t play close to that in the position in question, something like def. wins times 162/games played)
Those are two quick sources that are relatively complete. There are others.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm using Sean Smith's Projections
which Justin and Tango have signed off on. but i think reading as many as you can so you can get a feeling on which info says what.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 3, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UZR is available for 03-07 for free on xls/csv from Tango's blog
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 3, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reportedly Fangraphs is going to be publishing updated UZR soon.
MGL mentioned it in the comments section of The Book Blog recently.
by cwyers on Dec 3, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that is awesome
less and less reasons to pay for baseball analysis anymore, other than fantasy stuff. even there I could do it with free stuff if I wasn’t so lazy
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he also mentioned running UZR with BIS pbp data, but haven't seen that yet.
Both would be phenomenal.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same-same.
Fangraphs has the BIS data, which is how this would be possible.
by cwyers on Dec 4, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah hah!
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can also infer the point at which it makes more sense to DH
to be an average DH, you have to be able to hit at least 1.75 WAA to make up the pos adjustment. use that to find the break even point.
total = off + def + adjustment
For LF/RF: 0 = 1.75 – .75 + def —> -1.0 WAA
For 1B: 0 = 1.75 – 1.25 + def —> -0.5 WAA
basically, if you can’t wOBA ~ .370 and you suck playing a corner, you probably don’t want him on your team.
…if i didn’t screw that up, anyway.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 3, 2008 6:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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