Transactions Worth Mentioning: Taveras, Nelson, Burke

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 27, 2008 8:22 PM EST Comment 27 comments

Peter will cover the Randy Johnson transaction tomorrow, instead I'll look at some of the minor transactions.

Cincinnati signs Willy Taveras for two years.

Meet the new Corey Patterson. Thievery on the basepaths remains Taveras' best asset. It's nothing shy of amazing that Taveras attempted 75 steals while only reaching base just 165 times. That means he ran 45% of the time. Taveras still doesn't get on base enough to hit leadoff, and defensively - an area in which you (and apparently Walt Jocketty) would expect Taveras speed to be extremely beneficial - Taveras flops. Over the last three years Taveras has been worth roughly -6.8, -10.2, and 12.7 runs with the leather. Overall, Taveras is probably a slightly above replacement level center fielder, and whether you're a fan of Norris Hopper or not, he's probably just as good. One last thing: why sign Taveras - owner of four years of service time - to a two year deal?

Tampa Bay signs Joe Nelson for one year (1.3 million)

When numerous reports suggested that ~20 teams were interested in Nelson I raised my eyebrows. In fact, I asked a few people these questions:

How many of these teams are looking at his 2.00 ERA and thinking, there's us a prime set-up man, and how many of these teams are looking at his FIP and tRA and penciling him as a middle reliever?

Naturally a team that would seemingly fit in the latter category won his services, and for a modest rate. Nelson had a 3.45 FIP last season with some impressive strikeout totals and a declined walk rate, but even if he can't repeat that, and instead posts a FIP around 4 in 50 innings you're looking at NLRS around 4. That's 0.4 WAR, or worth 2.4 million, for a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility you would expect that player to get paid around 950k. If Nelson is simply a tad bit better, 0.5 WAR, arbitration salary would be ~1.13 million, so the Rays are paying him basically what he deserves and a touch more. This is advertised as a one year deal, but the Rays will have him under control for an additional two seasons, assuming he's not non-tendered for ineffectiveness by then.

Seattle signs Jamie Burke to a minor league deal

via LookoutLanding

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Comments

I will never

see that swing-and-miss on an 82 mph fastball enough.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Dec 27, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's on repeat, right?

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 27, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitch F/x

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Jamie_Burke.html

A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.

a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong

by cwhitman412 on Dec 29, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That was in a game where the M’s had no more pitchers in extras. I guess Burke pitched at one point in his career so he gave it a go. Only gave up one run if I remember correctly.

by levnclf on Dec 27, 2008 10:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And probably made a couple people drop their food and drinks on that wild pitch.

Came close to missing the net, IIRC.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 27, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The had pitchers left, they didn't wanna use them.

by JI on Dec 27, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Taveras gets a +3 from CHONE in CF next season.

and is ~ +1 run over 4 seasons in bUZR. considering the FSR is included in CHONE, any problems with his instincts or routes would be included therein. when one of the fastest players in the game whose rep and scouting reports say he’s good defensively, you might consider at least presenting those things to your audience, even if you conclude otherwise. you spent 400 words on this shit. a few more to get all that down is so hard? gotta keep the authoritative voice in tact? i see. well, i’ll stop peaking behind the curtain then.

anyway, that plus his arm (worth a couple runs per Dan Fox) plus baserunning plus basestealing makes him a reasonable CF candidate provided the money isn’t excessive. and norris hopper is recovering from tommy john.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 27, 2008 10:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I don't have any curtains up, just blinds, so you're peaking through the wrong window.

Okay, so saying “he flops” defensively apparently irritates you. We both note that he’s extremely fast. I’m not sure what type of defender you picture when you think of fast outfielders, but I don’t really think of 1 < x > 5 run types. bUZR rates him poorly, Justin’s numbers rate him as 1.7 runs last season, Fielding Bible, where he was one of the better CFers from 2005-2007 doesn’t have him in the 2006-2008 version which indicates a drop off and I don’t have a sub to BJO so I can’t give you that exact number, and Chone at +3.

Add that all up and average it and we have:

Chone 3
bUZR 1
Justin 1.7

Average 2 runs.

THT has his arm worth 3 runs last season, whether or not you add those as a full 3, but we’re talking about a 5 run defender, and we’re talking about one of the fastest guys in the league. You don’t consider that a flop? Joey Gathright, also really fast is at:

36 bUZR
-3.1 Justin
4, Chone

Average ~12 runs.

Not a big Gathright guy? How about Corey Patterson?

7 Chone
~17 bUZR
2.6 Justin

Average ~9 runs

The list goes on and on, for a really fast player Taveras doesn’t rate out as well as the other really fast guys. He’s either got poor instincts or the metrics underestimate him, either way, I feel safe in saying his expected defense (based on his speed) and his actual defense are quite different.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 28, 2008 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe Coors Field screws up his defensive ratings...

The fact that his numbers in Minute Maid would see such a sudden drop-off in the move to Denver indicates to me that either Houston’s park makes outfield defenders look better than they really are, which is doubtful given that park’s unique features, or Colorado makes them look worse. After reading about sprinters training at Colorado Springs, my guess is that there’s a physiological effect of playing so much at altitude that’s going to make Taveras’ defensive numbers miraculously jump back into a positive category now that he’s in Cincy.

by Rox Girl on Dec 28, 2008 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's something worth looking into.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 28, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree with this.

there’s something up with that difference in defense – since i don’t think anything has really changed with taveras, i’d guess it’s something in the stats themselves. where that leaves the conclusion on his defensive skills, i dunno.

by larry on Dec 28, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Coors has the largest outfield in baseball

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 28, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and considering how critical knowing the terms of the contract are

to evaluating the signing of a player to a contract, why wouldn’t you just wait a day or two for that to come out? b/c your readership was just dying to know what you thought of taveras?

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 27, 2008 10:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is there a reason you're being a complete asshole?

by JI on Dec 27, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His mother insisted on using suppository thermometers.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 28, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

+1

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 28, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you've never been on the internet i take it?

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 28, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some of us like blogs like BtB because the level of discourse is higher than most other places on the Internet.

If you can’t effectively argue your position without being a jerk, there’s probably something wrong with your argument.

by acblue on Dec 28, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

rec'd!

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 28, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by JI on Dec 29, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's usually not good to reply to "you've never been on the internet i take it"

by “posting” a picture that doesn’t appear to other users. sort of makes his point.

by larry on Dec 29, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because there was no reason to sign him for 2 years

When:
a) They could’ve signed him for 1 year and still retained his rights, but instead they’re now locked into paying him for 2 seasons even if he sucks (you know, like he did last year in an incredible offensive environment).
b) They have a guy on the roster now in Chris Dickerson that already provides good CF defense, projects to get on base more than Taveras, and actually offers a prayer of hitting extra base hits.
c) It blocks one of their top high minors prospects (Stubbs) that plays the same position and also will likely provide better overall production.

No matter what the specific terms are, this deal is a poor use of roster resources and cash, and I support it’s derision.

by jibs on Dec 28, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the approximate impact is dependent on the dollars expended

a couple mil is a couple mil; there’s no significant opportunity cost there. this is such a yawn. but whatever. ruffled feathers make the tubes what they are.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 28, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.

by acblue on Dec 29, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Forget the cash

If it has any effect at all (unless Taveras is actually paying the Reds), the cash can only hurt his trade value. The opportunity cost, if you prefer to look at it that way, is that Taveras is blocking significantly better options. It’s a waste of time, roster space, at bats, and uniform lettering.

by Brian B on Dec 29, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

are people arguing that dickerson is a "significantly better" option?

not sure i’d buy that. especially if we’re forgetting the cash.

the problem with this is far less that he was signed but that he was 1) signed to a two year deal and, perhaps most importantly, 2) will apparently be leading off.

by larry on Dec 29, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we're agreeing here.

it’s along the lines of the “will apparently be leading off” that bothers me here . . . but it means much more. It means that we’ll be seeing more of Willy Taveras at the plate more than we will be seeing anyone else. It means the 2009 Reds are committed to being a worse team than the pathetic 2008 Reds. It means we’re seeing WAY too much of Taveras and not near enough of the alternatives. Namely Dickerson, Stubbs, or even Votto in the OF.

Do I think Dickerson (or Stubbs) is significantly better than Taveras? Not necessarily. But going with Taveras is a step in the opposite direction of progress, which is a significant mistake that a team like the Reds can’t afford to make.

by Brian B on Dec 30, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs