Astros WAR

First, I have to thank Sky for his assistance with this...I would have futzed around in Excel for days before I got anything done.

The offense comes from an average of Bill James and Marcels wOBA; the baserunning from BPro's baserunning metrics; the defense is an average and/or a gut estimate looking at each players UZR at each position for the last three years; SP ERA are their last year's tRA*, except for Roy Oswalt who got his ERA from Bill James' projection; relievers got their ERA from averaging together Bill James and Marcels FIP. When a player has an (O), it means I had to go to Oliver to get a wOBA for them.

These are rough, but I have them up at the Crawfishboxes so everyone can help polish them.

Enjoy...even if it's ugly.

about 3 years ago Stephen Higdon 5 comments 0 recs |

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Inconsistencies

Okay, not sure if I’m totally off here. I was comparing the Dodgers WAR and Astros WAR, mostly because I’m hoping the Dodgers WAR isn’t really 79. :-)

But it seems the Astros calculations and the Dodger ones aren’t consistent. For example, Clayton Kershaw is projected for 165 IP with a 4.17 ERA for 1.69 WAR. Meanwhile Wandy Rodriguez projects to 150 IP with a 4.16 ERA for 2.4 WAR. Either I’m missing something or one of these projections is off, because Kershaw should be more valuable than Wandy.

by Brendan Scolari on Dec 27, 2008 5:18 AM EST reply actions

Hmmmm

That is very true…I’m sure this will send Sky into action, but I’ll check under the hood too.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Dec 27, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not seeing a huge inconsistency...

Wandy’s actually a pretty underrated pitcher, who’s consistently posted quite good K/BB numbers. His HR numbers aren’t great, leading to tERA*’s of 4.16, 4.88, and 3.96 from 2006 through 2008. Seems like a low 4.00’s kind of guy to me.

Kershaw posted a 4.13 tERA* last year with the Dodgers and is a hotshot prospect. He certainly has the potential to be much better than that, but we’ve all seen pitching prospects struggle at first and/or flameout.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 27, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions