AL Team By Team WAR

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 11:40 AM EST Comment 29 comments

The divisions are ordered by completeness. All have at least a starting 9, but some have bench and pitchers filled in too. They should all be the CHONE numbers. I propose that BTB head folks c/p and get volunteers to fill in the rest and then get a link in the sidebar to the google docs for reference.

Also, the CHONE pitcher projections supposedly account for team defense (see the Tango thread about the CHONE projections being available), so I believe I'm actually double counting atm. That's no good, obviously, so that should be changed. I'd also like to figure out the best way to do the bullpen. I think a good start would be looking at both total opportunities and per pitcher leverage stats, not to mention a team quality proxy. Bullpen replacement level is a lot lower for the worst teams. That is, if you expect a lot of low-leverage situations, the quality of the pitcher matters less. If you're already losing by a lot in the 6th, you don't sacrifice much tossing out some RHP with an 85 mph fastball.

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This is great

nice work

by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 24, 2008 12:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I understand that these are based on CHONE projections, but I do have a minor quibble;

Gutierrez will be playing CF for the M’s, and Chavez will likely be sharing playing time with Balentien. I don’t know enough about other teams to find similar discrepancies, but I’m sure they exist. So while this is truly excellent work, I think it’s important to take into account that lineup fluctuations and other comings-and-goings are going to alter this quite a bit going forward.

But with that being said, excellent work. Thanks.

by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

completely agree.

the whole point of this was quick and dirty; the c/ping was a chore.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 3:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also

come to think of it, i haven’t seen any work on exactly how good we are at projecting playing time.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 3:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really dislike algorithmic playing time estimates.

I mean, I realize why the CHONES or the Marcels would want to include a number that’s better than nothing, but we REALLY need intelligent, conservative fans of each team to estimate playing time.

I’m thinking about launching a community projection project where fans of each team collaborate on filling out a WAR spreadsheet. Should be interesting. And yes, I’m anticipating optimism, but I can make league-wide adjustments so that offensive WAR equals defensive WAR and teams average out to 81 wins.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 24, 2008 8:32 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd

Let me know when you get to the Red Sox. I have been putting together a WAR chart, but it isn’t complete. Good stuff. Thanks.

by drabidea on Dec 24, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I used Marcels

I tried to input the PT the best I could. If anyone has any input on that I’d love to hear it.

by JI on Dec 24, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you might consider asking Tango to leverage his readership a la the FSR

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd need one blog/discussion board for each team, I'm thinking.

I bet it would fill half way by volunteers and a quarter more by me prodding. The last five teams would take some networking, perhaps. Anyways, I’ll think about it over the next few days.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 24, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty bad

by Graham on Dec 24, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, holy crap the A's lineup is better than I thought.

by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Defense baby, defense

Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's

by iamawesomer on Dec 24, 2008 3:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

as long as they're healthy.

by Josh Deletchi on Dec 25, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who is this Murphy cat at short?

Not that it matters, Crosby is just as bad :)

by jeffro on Jan 2, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Way to make me look good Sky

I had to do edit this thing like 5 times already. It does say “editor” somewhere in your title, does it not? Damn son. Damn.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 3:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also, tangentially related;

Ichiro still breaks the projection systems and they should just put “awesome” in every field from here on out.

by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 3:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also:

if my proposal ends up getting followed, here’s a quick google doc CHONE wOBA calculator, copied from the excel one I dled from…Tango? i assume? plug und chug goodness.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 4:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

it doesn't include SB/CS though.

but it could be modified pretty rapidly. weights, iirc: safe = .09 runs out = -.27 runs. don’t take my word for it on that though. also, if you’re wondering what the conversion to bRAA is, it’s PA*(wOBA – .340)/1.15 where .340 is a rounded league average.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 24, 2008 4:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs