2009 A's WAR

Above is for hitters, this is for pitchers. I got about 87 wins, add a SS and SP acquisition to boost it to 90 and the A's would be favorites in the current incarnation of the AL West.

[Sky's note: I like how these WAR projections are available in a Google Doc and will be updated throughout the off-season based on changing personnel and 2009 expectations. Again, this should be a community project for every team.]

about 3 years ago iamawesomer 4 comments 0 recs |

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Note that I haven't looked at these WAR projections...

But I have a hunch if we took every team’s estimate, the average win total would be at least a few games above 81. Even from people who are intentionally being conservative, I’m guessing it’s not enough.

Not that this isn’t worth doing. I love this analysis, as I’ve mentioned before.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 23, 2008 3:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

I am not sure we should be changing the wOBA from Marcels. PA, we should change. IP, we should change but the projected FIP and wOBA we should keep the same. We have no idea if a player is going to regress, improve, or get better. Yeah we have hunches, but Marcel’s projections are the closest thing we have.

by drabidea on Dec 23, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

CHONE

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 24, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions

Right.

I agree with the point of using objective projections and manually adjusting playing time, but there are better systems out there than Marcel. It’s especially poor with rookies.

With bUZR now available, I’d love to see a defensive projection system that uses it, too.

Also, there IS room for a totally subjective wisdom of the crowds projection project, like community projections. Each team could have fans project the rate stats of players and compare to each other and the objective projections.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 24, 2008 8:40 AM EST up reply actions