Dodgers Projected 2009 WAR

Could more team blogs do something like this? You can use real projections, your own personal estimates, or get readers to come to a consensus. Thanks.

about 3 years ago Sky Kalkman 19 comments 0 recs |

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I did this for Milwaukee last month.

Batters and Pitchers.

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by Jack Moore on Dec 21, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for sharing.

I agree that Marcel PA and IP numbers aren’t very useful. That’s one area of forecasting I trust an intelligent fan to beat an algorithm. Just be conservative.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 21, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

How did you come to the 10 defRAA for Kendall?

I’m trying to come up with a number for Kurt Suzuki (one of the better defensive catchers I believe) and was wondering how you arrived at 10. Thanks.

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by iamawesomer on Dec 21, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions

It was a random estimation

Catcher defense is so hard to quantify, but everybody said he was so awesome, and he was +5 according to Pinto’s PMR that I just assumed he was a win above average.

I guess if you wanted something a little more concrete, you could try runs saved from SBs (I don’t remember the run values for SBs and CSs offhand) plus PMR for catchers, which is on this site if you search.

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by Jack Moore on Dec 21, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

Justin's stats have a decent catcher defense portion

SB/CS, error rates on fielding balls, and PB/WP rates. Kendall and Suzuki both rated very well in 2008.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 22, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

I've got a spreadsheet going for the Mets

I hesitate to post it until the offseason is over. What Leverage Factor would you suggest for Putz?

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Dec 21, 2008 11:02 PM EST reply actions

Yeah I haven't put my A's one up yet as I think there's still a FA signing or two likely

But I guess I could always update it when it does occur.

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by iamawesomer on Dec 22, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

Cool, let me know when they go live, although I understand waiting.

Or, you could post them as a nicely formatted Google Doc and continuously update them throughout the off-season…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 22, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

That's a great idea...

I’m gonna get on that right now.

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Juuuust a bit outside!!
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by Jack Moore on Dec 23, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

I go 1.8 for closers and 1.3 for a main setup guy.

You can interchange KRod and Putz and not lose much, which is why I like holding individuals accountable for the leverage they deserve based on FIP, and only assigning LIs based on bullpen usage when forecasting a team’s performance (like you’re doing in this case).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 22, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

for the shout out! It will take some very creative puzzle building for Colletti to get the Dodgers into the 85+ WAR area. I doubt they sign Sheets, Manny and a top relief pitcher. It can be done, but I have my doubts with Colletti.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 21, 2008 11:27 PM EST reply actions

85+ WAR is like 130 wins.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 22, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

50+35=85

is what I meant. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 22, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

i do this for sss

i actually have this for all of the AL position players on a google doc with CHONE projections.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 4:14 AM EST reply actions

Here's the A's position players WAR

http://www.oaktownas.com/2009-war-position-players/

Pitchers to come tomorrow.

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by iamawesomer on Dec 22, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions

The A's don't have a single below average defender?

That seems a little crazy, but amazing if true.

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http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Dec 22, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

There's a reason team ERA remains so low with so many pitchers coming through here.

The A’s were 2nd only to the Rays in team BABIP allowed, not the best defensive metric but a decent one I figure.

The ones who could be questionable in my evaluation would be Crosby, Sweeney, and Pennington, who I don’t really like and would replace with Gregorio Pettit, who by all accounts is very good with the glove. The rest are all definitely + defenders (at least I think Chavez still would be, better be looking at his hitting projection).

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by iamawesomer on Dec 22, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

FIP

Where did you get your FIP numbers? Broxton? Marcels has him at 3.04, you have 2.58. Same with other pitchers like Kuo (3.36/2.92)? Maybe I am just not calculating it right.

by drabidea on Dec 23, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions