Just How Much of an Upgrade Are CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett?
by Peter Bendix on Dec 16, 2008 5:00 AM EST
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PrintIn 2008, the Yankees were 7th in the AL in runs scored, 8th in ERA, and 25th in baseball in defensive efficiency. So how do the Yankees choose to solve these problems? By throwing $250 million at the top two free agent starters on the market.
Don’t get me wrong: Sabathia and Burnett are excellent pitchers, and as lucrative as their two deals are, I don’t necessarily think they’re terrible deals for the Yankees. Unlike just about every other team, the Yankees can afford to overpay players, both in terms of AAV and years. If Burnett or Sabathia get hurt, the Yankees will still be able to make other moves to improve their teams, so neither contract is likely to be crippling. And if healthy, both men are excellent pitchers. The thing is, the Yankees pitching was already pretty good, and the Burnett/Sabathia combo may not be quite the upgrade that many Yankee fans think.
In 2008, the Yankees received 448 innings from the trio of Mike Mussina, Darrell Rasner, and Sidney Ponson, none of whom will return in 2009. These three combined to give up 219 runs, good for a 4.39 ERA. Let’s charitably assume that Sabathia and Burnett can cover these 448 innings between the two of them next season (let’s give 248 innings to Sabathia and 200 innings to Burnett). Obviously, this is somewhat optimistic, as it’s likely that both pitchers won’t quite reach these innings totals, but let’s run with it.
Marcel predicts Sabathia to have a 3.22 ERA next season, and Burnett to have a 3.97 ERA. If this holds true, that means that Sabathia would allow 89 runs over 248 innings and Burnett would allow 88 runs over 200 innings. Thus, in the 448 innings between them, Burnett and Sabathia would allow 177 runs combined.
As you recall, Mussina, Rasner, and Ponson allowed 219 runs in the same amount of innings last season. Thus, Sabathia and Burnett would qualify as a 42-run upgrade, or approximately four wins. Remember, we’re assuming that Sabathia and Burnett are able to total 448 innings between them, an unlikely assumption.
Rather, it’s more likely that some of those innings will have to go to the bullpen, which is collectively as not as good as Burnett and Sabathia. However, even a charitable assumption nets the Yankees only four marginal wins over Mussina/Rasner/Ponson.
Of course, this is somewhat unfair: Mussina will not return in 2009 no matter what, and if they Yankees didn’t sign Sabathia or Burnett, they would likely have to give his innings to an inferior pitcher. But the point remains: as good as Burnett and Sabathia are, they’re only a four-win upgrade over the pitchers they’re replacing, because the Yankees pitching staff in 2008 wasn’t that bad. Four wins is no small amount – especially for a team like the Yankees that will probably be fighting for their playoff lives – but it’s probably less of an upgrade than many Yankee fans, and perhaps the front office themselves, believe.
The Yankees pitching should be even better thanks to a full season from Chien-Ming Wang and perhaps Joba Chamberlain. However, none of this changes the fact that their offense is average and their defense is awful. If anything, we can expect their offense to be worse next season: yes, Posada will be back, they’ve acquired Swisher, and we can expect some improvement from Robinson Cano. However, losing Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi will be a big blow, Johnny Damon is probably going to regress, and Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter will be a year older. Furthermore, their team defense is still in shambles (although adding Mike Cameron would be a huge boost).
If only there was a free agent available who could improve the Yankees offense and defense at the same time. Ideally, this guy would be a switch-hitter with patience and power, as well as an established track record of excellence. It would be nice if he was relatively young – say, 28 or so – and be athletic enough so as to probably age well. Alas, there is no one like that available.
Oh wait – yes there is. Even with the additions of Sabathia and Burnett, the Yankees should sign Mark Teixeira. Adding him to this team would take them from contenders to favorites, now and in the future. Their offense and defense would both be a lot better right away, and the Yankees would have, on paper, the very best team in baseball. Adding Sabathia and Burnett is a nice start to the offseason, but it won’t be complete unless they add Teixeira as well.
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agreed
I wonder if they wouldn’t have been better signing the lower-priced Lowe, then either Sabathia or Burnett, then using the “savings” to sign Teixeira.
THey need nim, though. I like Swisher a great deal, but he’s only really an above average player in the corner OF (and that’s even before considering how bad Rally and bUZR see his 1B defense). A Damon-Cameron-Swisher OF would be good defensively and underrated offensively. But it depends on them getting a guy better than Swisher at first.
I personally think Teixeira should have been their #1 priority this offseason. This smells a bit like the year they opted for Randy Johnson over Carlos Beltran.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
Swisher-Cameron-Nady
would be an even better OF, offensively and defensively. I agree with you though, they NEED good defensive players.
platoon
Damon and Nady, Damon’s still most likely the better player, but Nady can crush lefty .
O RLY
So opting for a 28 year old ace that just came off two years where he was likely the best pitcher in baseball, while still succeeding in the AL, over a first basemen smells like trading for a 40+ year old pitcher from the NL west over a five tool CF. Jesus Christ.
by Omar Little on Dec 16, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Two pieces of optimism
"the Yankees pitching staff in 2008 wasn’t that bad. " – Look at them only against good teams (e.g., playoff-making or over-.500.)
"The Yankees pitching should be even better thanks to a full season from Chien-Ming Wang and perhaps Joba Chamberlain. "
I suspect I know why you picked the Reds to contend next year. Do you think of pitchers the same way Dusty does, elements to be broken? If Joba starts for a full season, he’s dead meat within two years after. (Wang for a whole season will be Wang for a whole season—basically a #5 starter in a #4 role.)
Huh?
I understand the Joba part, and agree with you. They have to limit is innings or he will fall apart. The Wang part I don’t get, are you saying he is only as good as a #5 starter? The same guy to pitched a complete game shutout against the red sox?
Joba, Wang and the Reds...
Joba is an extreme injury risk, I agree. In fact, I suspect that it was because of this injury risk that the Yankees chose to sign both CC and AJ – they don’t expect Joba to be healthy for 200 innings, nor should they. But even 100-120 innings from Joba would be a huge help, as when he’s healthy he’s dominant.
Wang has is not more likely to be hurt next year than most pitchers. And I think you’re underselling him – he’s much better than a #5 starter, even with his lack of strikeouts, because he keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. His tRA+ in 2006 and 2007 was 116 and 107, respectively.
As for the Reds, I hardly “expect” them to be contenders. The point of my piece was that the Reds have the opportunity to surprise some people if they can improve their defense, since their D was so terrible last season that it made their pitchers look worse than they were.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 16, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
Joba's innings
I’m pretty sure they at least want to get him 130 or 150 innings. I don’t think he’s a “huge” injury risk considering how he is able to get low PCs in games and the way the Yankees will manage him.
by Omar Little on Dec 16, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
Pitch counts...
Joba strikes out a lot of batters and walks a lot as well. He doesn’t easily have low pitch counts…
by Peter Bendix on Dec 17, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Why?
They’re the Yankees. Do they really need to skimp on Teixeira for Manny?
by Peter Bendix on Dec 16, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Because
it looks like Boston just offered him a contract for 200 million. I believe it’s nothing more than a rumor as of now, but I doubt the Yankees will top that offer.
by Toneystarks on Dec 16, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Abreu and Giambi
I agree that loosing them will hurt their offense, but it also leaves their defense to go no where but up.
This is a very good point.
Unfortunately, their offense without Abreu and Giambi isn’t much above average (if that), so they can’t look for defense-only replacements. And there just aren’t many guys available who can add both defense and offense (I’m thinking Manny, Burrell, Dunn…).
by Peter Bendix on Dec 16, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure about that...
CA: could be awful or above-average (whoever vs. Posada)
1B: average to above-average (Swisher)
2B: average (really anywhere from crappy to really good, both versions being Cano)
SS: above-average (Jeter)
3B: awesome (ARod)
LF: average (Damon)
CF: not good at all (Melky) to below-average (Gardner) to above-average (Cameron)
RF: average (Nady)
DH: above-average (Matsui)
I count many average to above-average players with one stud and the potential for three holes (2B, CA, CF). I doubt more than one of the positions turns out to be below-average, however. Seems like a good offense, although maybe not top five in MLB.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Your comments
I really think you’re being awfully optimistic here on some players…I don’t think Nady’s an average RF nor do I think Matsui is an above average DH. Matsui’s got crappy knees and really can’t stay healthy, that and he seemed to have lost a bit of power last season. That being said, I expect huge rebounds from Cano and Swisher.
by Omar Little on Dec 16, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I might grant the point on Nady, although he's not much below average if so.
But Matsui I don’t agree with. DHs hit surprisingly poorly. In 2008, AL DHs hit .256/.339/.435. Matsui’s Marcel from Fangraphs is .277/.356/.443. That includes an age adjustment, but no injury knowledge. Average would be a disappointment, although maybe he’s not WAY above average.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Agreed
In a perfect world, they sign Tex, move Swisher to RF, trade for Cameron and get rid of Nady. However such a scenario is not probable.
A-Rod’s age doesn’t worry me since players of his caliber don’t see a big decline at the age of 34, while Jeter’s age does.
Hopefully the benching of Cano lights a fire under his ass, and he learns to walk.
Whether or not the Yankees make the playoffs may depend on whether or not they sign Tex or Manny.
I agree…I look at that offense and I think they still need another bat. I like your scenario quite well…that being said if Nady doesn’t fetch much (an average starter, Marlon Byrd, etc) I’m okay with Siwsher in center Damon in left and Nady in right.
by Omar Little on Dec 16, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I look at it differently. The problem with the Yankees over the past five or so years is that they were well-built to excel in the regular season but poorly constructed for the playoffs. They won by having rotation depth and a great offense. Come playoff time, when they were facing great teams with great 1-2 starters, they didn’t match up that well. These moves were as much about fixing that flaw as improving their regular season record.
As far as offense and defense goes, I’d like more but who wouldn’t. The defense should be improved with Swisher and Nady as upgrades and Cameron or Gardner having more range than Cabrera. They will miss Abreu and Giambi’s offense but not defense. Outside of Nady and possibly Damon, I don’t see anyone who I’d expect to have worse offensive years this year and both those guys are on contract years so they’ll be well motivated to repeat. Cano, Matsui and Posada should all have better years and I’d be willing to bet that Jeter (struggling with hand injuries much of last year) and A-Rod (off year for him) will both be a little better too. I worry about Matsui and Posada both being healthy but don’t worry about the offense being enough if they are.
I think Tex would make fantastic sense if you ignore the contract he’s going to require but I don’t see how anyone could really argue he’s worth giving an 8-10 year contract to. Even if he ages well, how many of those years is he really going to be an elite 1Bman? Its pretty easy to get strong production from that spot without overpaying for it. I think over half of the 1Bmen last year hit .290, hit 20 HRs, and/or had .800+ OPS. Anyone who gives Tex an 8-10 contract is going to be overpaying him for about half the contract. I think the Yankees recognize that and are only staying involved to up the price for Boston or the Angels.
What I’d like to see them do is re-sign Abreu for another two years and install him as the DH and then trade Matsui even if it means not getting much back and possibly picking up a little of his salary.
I don't think it's fair...
…to compare Sabathia and Burnett in 2009 to the 2008 production of Mussina, Rasner, and Ponson. One, none of those guys are back, so you really need to compare Sabathia/Burnett to the other 2009 options if you want to critique the decision to sign them. Two, using Mussina’s ERA is misleading as his 2008 tRA was much much higher than his ERA. (Even having Mussina back for 2009 would likely be a downgrade in expected runs allowed.)
Totally agree on the Teixeira decision, however. It should have been priority number one. And while I like Lowe and think he’s a steal at 3 years $14MM each, the Yanks don’t need him:
Sabathia
Burnett
Wang
Chamberlain
Hughes
IPK’s now a waste, unless he’s the #1 replacement option for Wang/Joba/Hughes missing time. Hughes is being overlooked big time.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I mostly agree, but...
I didn’t mean to use the comparison to critique the Yankees decision, but rather to gauge how much the team improved by signing these two. A lot of people seem to underestimate how good the Yankees pitching was last year, and assume that Sabathia and Burnett are a huge upgrade. They’re ~4-win upgrade. Big, yes, Huge, no.
But that doesn’t mean this was a bad decision, for the reason(s) you state: Mussina wasn’t coming back no matter what, and even if he was, he would’ve probably allowed more runs than he did in 2008. But that doesn’t change the fact that he DID allow so few runs in 08, and that’s the level that the new acquisitions should be compared to.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 16, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Ok. Let’s assume that what you say (not trying to sound condescending or anything of that matter) is true, That Burnett and Sabathia are actually a 4 win upgrade. You also then have a healthy Wang for a full season, which is probably worth 1-2 more wins (off the top of my head) 40-50 more IP out of Chamberlain probably worth another win. Then you have either Hughes or whoever they pick up. As of now, some of those wins will be negated since their offense will regress a bit by loosing Abreu and Giambi (even if the defense improves by default). They’re going to need another bat behind A-Rod imo.
I think I agree...
I’m not 100% sure what you’re saying, but I agree that the Yankees rotation was going to be upgraded thanks to a return to health from Wang, and the potential for a solid amount of innings from Joba and/or Hughes. In fact, this is part of my reasoning for why that $250 million might’ve been better spent on Teixeira.
Of course, it may not be an either/or – the Yankees are rich enough to still sign Tex as well. But signing Burnett and Sabathia INSTEAD of Teixeira is a mistake.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 17, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
We definitely agree that pitching wasn't as much of an issue as most people made it out to be.
I think a Burnett/Lowe or Sheets/Lowe combo would have been better (or just one, really), with the other money spent on Teix. Or another good way to spend money would be to take bad contracts from other teams in exchange or young talent OFs.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
well
08 was a pretty bad year for the Yankees in terms of projection vs reality
optimistically.
if Posada plays more than 120 game and hit near his career average, that’s already a 4 win ish upgrade over last year even accounting for defense. (yes , Jose Molina’s hitting was That BAD)
Wang for a full season instead of half is obviously a major upgrade.
guys like Derek Jeter (I.E, hall of fame talents) are usually more likely to beat the age decline curve than most players, and interestingly enough, most metrics this year agreed that Jeter took a mega step foward with the glove this year for some reason , from that perspective, it doesn’t seem like he’s in serious physical decline, just that his early season injury hampered his overall numbers (he hit .324 /.388/ .426 in the second half ) that’s one thing the the Yankee critics tend to overlook, yes old player decline but more talented onces usually do it a lot more gracefully, and the old players on the Yankees are usually at the very top of the talent curve.
Some good points.
Awesome players – like Jeter and Arod – tend to age more gracefully, especially players who are as athletic as those two. However, they are unlikely to get better, and they are not immune to age-related decline. Thus, I think it’s fair to say that odds are their production will drop, although probably not by too much.
I think you’re overstating Posada’s value – he may not be able to catch 120 games, and he’s certainly not going to hit like he did in 2007. And while Molina/I-Rod’s offense was terrible, their defense was very good, and certainly much better than Posada’s is likely to be.
Wang for a full season is a major upgrade (as is Joba, I’m somewhat optimsitic). Point is, those guys would be upgrades anyway, making the pitching better overall than it was last year. The Yankees need Tex more than they need CC or AJ.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 18, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Posada's value
Let’s assume 80 games at catcher, and nothing else. Marcel and Bill James have Posada with a .365 wOBA in 2009. That’s worth about 9 RAA over a half season. Catcher bonus is 6 runs. Replacement is 12 runs. That makes Posada a 2.7 WAR player, not bad for part time. Of course, that offensive projection might be a bit high, and Posada may not be a league-average defensive catcher (in fact, probably not). Still an upgrade over most other options.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 18, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
CHONE
is here, if you didn’t read my hyperventilaing posts from last night on royals review and driveline…
Chone has him at +10 off. lwts/150, although I don’t know about the park and leagye adjustments, or if he adjusts for carcher playing time. Oddly, he doesn’t project a wOBA on his own pages.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
Posada is definitely an upgrade over last season’s catching options, I didn’t mean to say/imply otherwise. But I don’t think he’ll be able to catch 120 games, and he’ll probably be well-below-average defensively in the games he does catch. While he’s an upgrade over Jose Molina, I think 2.7 WAR is a touch optimistic.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 18, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
I agree and made exactly those points when he signed his big deal before last season.
I’ll also point out that guys like Molina are surprisingly bad, even with the huge catcher adjustment. And the basic catcher defense metrics don’t show him as much better than average.
Career .270 wOBA translates to -40 runs over 700 PAs. That’s basically replacement level for a catcher.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
The analysis is appreciated
but I think there’s two issues that need to be more fully addressed. First the distribution of pitchers in the rotation. Second, why was it that the Yankees pitching was better in 2008 than many people think it was.
In this analysis you are essentially treating Ponson/Rasner as if they had occupied one rotation spot. Otherwise comparing 2 pitchers – CC and Burnett – to three pitchers is a stretch. CC lines up with replacing Mussina. But Ponson and Rasner were in the rotation at the same time for different stretches of the season. So of course AJ Burnett isn’t going to make up for their totals.
Mussina threw 200 innings last year. So you have Ponson and Rasner throwing 248 innings for their rotation slot. It seems unreasonable for one back end rotation slot to be accountable for so many innings. No 4th/5th starters do so.
To get a better sense of the impact of Sabathia and Burnett, you’d need to account for the fact that Burnett and Joba will effectively also be replacing the horrible innings that Hughes and Kennedy threw during the season. Hughes and Kennedy made 18 starts for the yankees – ponson made 16.
Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain (post bull pen – 76 innings as a starter), Rasner and Ponson essentially comprised two rotation slots for the yanks last season. This year those two slots will be replaced by Burnett and Chamberlain starting from the beginning of the year (assuming Pettitte is resigned).
The other issue is why the yankees pitching was better than expected. This wasn’t due to the starting rotation. It was largely due to the relative effectiveness of the bull pen and the inordinate number on innings the pen threw.
Last season the pen threw roughly 40% of the teams total innings. That’s just enormous. The starters gave them very few innings. I’d guess that might have been the highest proportion of innings thrown by a pen in the AL, perhaps in all of baseball.
The bullpen ERA was 3.58. The starters era was 4.58.
Under normal circumstances it would be close to unheard of for a teams bull pen to throw 40% of its innings and not collapse. Once you get past 35% or so bull pens get very taxed. For comparison Boston’s pen only threw 32% of the Sox innings. The Rays pen only threw 33% of its innings.
It’s even stranger to see a teams bull pen throw that many innings and not only not collapse – but to have a bull pen ERA a full run lower than the starters. They were only able to pull this off because the team had tremendous depth in middle relievers who threw decent, above average innings.
The only reason why the yankee’s pitching wasn’t terrible in 2008 was because of the bull pen – both its level of performance and the total number of innings it was able to throw.
Given the tremendous season to season variation in bull pen performance it’s reasonable to believe that the yankees pen was extremely unlikely to repeat its 2008 performance.
The yankees overall pitching was better than many people suppose. But the starting rotation as a whole was bad. Given the risk involved with variation in pen performance getting more innings from the starters this year was a priority and will likely save the team more games than the +4 this analysis suggests.
I agree and disagree.
Thanks for the response, it was particularly thoughtful and insightful. On one point, I agree wholeheartedly, while on another I think your line of reasoning is somewhat misleading.
You write that
In this analysis you are essentially treating Ponson/Rasner as if they had occupied one rotation spot.I understand what you mean, but this is misleading. It doesn’t matter how many roster spots a player occupied, the key is the amount of innings pitched. There is a (relatively) finite number of innings in a season that need to be accounted for…period. In this analysis, I granted that the 448 innings that were pitched by Mussina, Rasner, and Ponson in 2008 could reasonably be covered by Sabathia (who pitched 253 innings in 2008) and Burnett (who pitched 221). I think it’s unlikely that CC and AJ reach those innings plateaus once again, but it’s certainly possible that they combine for 448 innings, thereby accounting for the innings pitched by Mussina, Rasner, and Ponson.
To get a better sense of the impact of Sabathia and Burnett, you’d need to account for the fact that Burnett and Joba will effectively also be replacing the horrible innings that Hughes and Kennedy threw during the season. Hughes and Kennedy made 18 starts for the yankees – ponson made 16.
This is also misleading. The Yankees were due internal upgrades thanks to a return from Wang, perhaps more innings for Joba, and likely improvement from Hughes or Kennedy (if not both). The point of this article was that the Yankees’ need for CC and AJ is overstated – their pitching wasn’t that bad in 08, and was likely to be even better in 09 had they not signed ANY pitcher.
Last season the pen threw roughly 40% of the teams total innings. That’s just enormous. The starters gave them very few innings. I’d guess that might have been the highest proportion of innings thrown by a pen in the AL, perhaps in all of baseball.
The bullpen ERA was 3.58. The starters era was 4.58.
This is an excellent point, which I did not realize. You’re right that the Yankees overall team ERA was somewhat skewed by an above-average bullpen that accounted for a lot of innings. However, I think you somewhat overstate the variance of bullpens – yes, they are extremely volatile, but just because a team’s bullpen was good one year does not mean it’s likely to be bad the next year. However, I grant your point that the ’pen was probably pitching somewhat above its true ability in 08 (hmm, I said “somewhat” somewhat often in that paragraph…)
Given the risk involved with variation in pen performance getting more innings from the starters this year was a priority and will likely save the team more games than the +4 this analysis suggests.
Your fundamental point is quite correct: the Yankees overall pitching is probably going to be more than four wins better than it was in 08 (even granting regression in the bullpen). But again, this misses the point: the pitching was going to be better even without AJ and CC – so the Yankees should have made signing Teixeira their offseason priority.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 18, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
while I
generally agree, particularly in why they went after Burnett . I think your overly optimistic on some assumptions.
Hughes and Kennedy could be better in 09, or maybe not (or not enough to justify a rotation spot). there are inherently more question marks involved in younger pitchers and how they translate into the bigs, in reality, if we look back at the 08 projections, the two of them fell off a cliff in terms of projection probabilties, (I.E they were worth less than their worest projection) this isn’t particularly unheard of or even uncommon for youngesters, how fast and how well they translate to the majors always remains questionable until it happens. even a brief look back on the career of some of the HOF or better pitchers in baseball and how their minor / major corresponded should give a good idea of that, let alone the much more numerous failed once.
Chamberlain has most likely made the transition already, but injury is already hard to project.
So if you bring out a rotation of … say. Wang / Chamberlian / Hughes / Kennedy / Aceves in 09, while the projection might look like it’s able to repeat or improve on what the 08 rotation did, in reality the chances of it completely blowing up in your face is quiet high (higher than AJ Burnett getting significantly hurt, A LOT higher), and your alternatives by then is limited if not non-existent.
Signing CC is a no-brainer, the FOs have more info than we do so I guess I’d have to trust them on Burnett, though I thought signing Pettitte or some other lower years alternatives woulda been better and go after Teix.
the Teix situation isn’t done yet so we don’t know, but yeah, if the rumors are true, I’m mystified, Teix is worth it, they could make room on the payroll by trading Damon or Matsui or Nady or Marte or even Swisher again (ok Matsui may be a bit diffcult to trade right now but surely you can get someone into taking Damon for 1 year)
by RollingWave on Dec 18, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Hughes and Kennedy are definitely risky,
And the Yankees are right not to count on them for much. But in your “projected rotation” you omitted Pettitte, and I definitely thought it was a good idea for the Yankees to sign one free agent starter, giving them a rotation of FA, Wang, Joba, Pettitte, Hughes, with Kennedy as the first replacement. The second FA starter is a nice thing to have, but it’s bad if it comes at the expense of Teixeira.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 18, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Nice work, Peter.
Bottom line, any analysis of the projected upgrade to the Yankees rotation needs to account realistically for defensive issues — not only will the new guys not prevent as many runs as expected, but the guys who are being replaced also weren’t as bad as they looked, so you’re looking at a shrinking delta on both sides. Pettitte was 41st in the AL in ERA last season, but he was in the Top 10 in FIP and xFIP.
Sabathia and Burnett have better strikeout stuff, but they will not be immune to defensive issues. That’s not only going to inflate their projected ERAs, it’s also going to reduce their IP as a direct consequence. That means more innings for that perennially thin Yankee bullpen. The upgrade isn’t going to be $41 million worth of great, that’s for sure.
Thanks, Jay.
Nice to see you commenting over here :)
You make a great point about the Yankees defensive issues hurting not only Sabathia and Burnett’s ERAs, but their IP as well. This is even more true now that it appears that the Mike Cameron talks are dead.
by Peter Bendix on Dec 18, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
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