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Length of M.L. of High School vs. College Pitchers

Question: Does the amount of pitches a pitcher throws in college effect how long he will throw in in the majors?

 

Why I asked the question: Good college pitchers seem to throw a lot of innings in college. The college team doesn't care if the pitcher injures himself for the future, only that they can get the most out of him while he is there and does this abuse carry onto the majors.

Star-divide

Analysis: I wanted to look at pitchers that made it to the majors recently and while there actually pitched a decent amount in at least one season. I looked at all the pitchers that reached 160 innings any year between 1985 and 2007 and have retired. Here are the results when comparing players drafted out of high school and all colleges.

School Draft From Number Age of M.L. Debut Age of Last Game G GS IP Years in M.L. G per year GS per year IP per year
High School 62 22.03 33.6 317.44 236.48 1621.81 11.6 27.4 20.4 140.2
College 162 23.73 34.11 301.98 220.68 1517.83 10.4 29.1 21.3 146.2

From this analysis I found that where the pitcher was drafted from does make a difference once they make it to the majors. Even though college pitchers are older when the retire, that have sent over 1 year less in the majors leading to less games, games started and innings pitched over their careers. Once in the majors, both were somewhat comparable in the game number of games, games started and innings pitched per year with college pitchers getting the the slight nod. Pitchers from college also were about a half a year older when they retired.

Next, I divided the college players into ones drafted from a 4 year college and the ones drafted from a 2 year community college. Here are the results:

 

School Draft From Number Age of M.L. Debut Age of Last Game G GS IP Years in M.L. G per year GS per year IP per year
High School 62 22.0 33.6 317.4 236.5 1621.8 11.6 27.4 20.4 140.2
Community College 35 23.1 34.9 360.7 253.8 1798.5 11.9 30.4 21.4 151.8
4 Year College 127 23.9 33.9 286.1 211.7 1442.1 10.0 28.7 21.2 144.5

Once the community college pitchers are removed, the difference between 4 year college players and hight school are more dramatic with high school pitchers being in the majors ~1.5 years longer, but both were out of the majors by their 34th birthday. The big surprise here was how the community college pitchers performed. They averaged 2 more years as a pro compared to players that went to a 4 year college and had 2 more starts per year along with ~7 more innings per season. This accounted for ~32 more starts in their careers and ~350 more innings pitched.

It looks for sure that college pitchers don't last for as many seasons once they are in the majors compared to pitchers drafted out of high school, but both are done pitching at about the same age. The anomaly of the group seems to be pitchers from community college that have a longer career than the other two groups.

 

 

 

Comment 6 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Cool,

good news for Derek Holland.

" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.

by Kinslerhomer on Dec 15, 2008 9:29 PM EST reply actions  

Pitching overload

I wonder if teams tell the high school pitchers they draft this concept.

by therayspartyleader on Dec 16, 2008 9:29 AM EST reply actions  

It looks for sure that college pitchers don’t last for as many seasons once they are in the majors compared to pitchers drafted out of high school, but both are done pitching at about the same age.

But they don’t last as many seasons in the majors because they reach the majors at a later age, not because they are worn down by pitching in college. The question was does college wear down a pitcher – and the answer is NO. 4-year and HS pitchers last the same length of time.

Weird result with CC pitchers. I wouldn’t expect the best talent to come from CC. Maybe they are better skilled – better understanding of HOW to pitch that give them longevity?

by David Howards Legacy on Dec 17, 2008 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

I should have been more clear on that

Some articles I read stated that HS pitchers last the same amount of time in the majors, not their age.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 17, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Community College

Small sample size could attribute alot of that. I know that one of the Community College guys is Curt Schilling, if you took his sample out of the data it would change drastically I am sure.

I like the piece though.

by drabidea on Dec 18, 2008 3:24 PM EST reply actions  

Schilling is doesn't cause the biggest change ...

… Nolan Ryan does

I didn’t want to really remove anyone if I removed Nolan Ryan (~1/30 th of the values). I would have roved the 4 top college players and 2 high school players. Removing the community college numbers are still better than HS and college pitchers:

Age of M.L. Debut – Age of Last Game – G – GS – IP – Years in M.L -G per year – GS per year
23.21 - 34.61 – 347.18 – 238.09- 1689.79 – 11.4 - 30.5 - 20.9

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 18, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

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