Ibanez to Philly
3/30.
I guess the Phillies decided to stay with a no-field all-hit outfielder in left, but this one might not end too well. Ibanez is 36 (he'll turn 37 next June) and should all ready be dictated to first or DHing. Here's how the defensive metrics see Ibanez:
UZR/150: -11
Justin: -17.1
Chone: -13
PMR: -7.56
That's an average of -12.2. Ibanez has been solid offensively for a while. His past three seasons worth of wRAA are 16.7, 13.5, and last year 16.3. Unfortunately, age will eventually catch up to Ibanez, and when it does those offensive numbers will slide off a bit. This wouldn't be an issue if Ibanez provided defensive value, but as it stands he's just shy of being a 2 WAR outfielder.
If you assume Ibanez maintains a 1.9 WAR level in 2009 and then begins a 0.5 WAR decline at the end of his contract he will be worth 25.5 million. That's not too bad. The Phillies are high on the win curve so that checks out. It just seems a bit counter-productive to sign essentially the same style of player, only with a weaker bat, same awful glove, and a more pending decline. Maybe Burrell was demanding an outrageous sum, but if you're going to get an all-hit outfielder, you may as well get the better hitter.
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36 comments
Comments
let's not forget that they are also giving up their first round pick in this.
more value out the window.
willy taveras free?
by larry on Dec 12, 2008 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i guess they wanted a lefty?
this seems like such an odd move because the two are quite similar, except for handedness and age. and one might have thought burrell had the advantage in both of those.
willy taveras free?
by larry on Dec 12, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe.
But Utley and Howard are both lefties, and Victorino/Rollins switch hit.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if the answer to that question is even "maybe", let alone "yes"
the phillies are crazy. we better find out that burrell was having untoward relations with the underage daughter of a member of the phillies staff because this decision makes no baseball sense.
willy taveras free?
by larry on Dec 12, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, no. I meant maybe regarding the "I guess they wanted a lefty?" part.
Burrell has the advantage, I agree.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i know what you meant. and if the answer is that the phillies wanted another lefty for the middle of their order, they're crazy.
the value of LOOGYS just went up in the nl east.
willy taveras free?
by larry on Dec 12, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And the Mets just traded one.
And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic...
by Blicks on Dec 13, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He shares the runs with everybody.
And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic...
by Blicks on Dec 12, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dont understand...
…why would they choose him over Burrell? Did they not want Burrell so bad that they wouldnt offer him arb and then give 3years to a similar player? This doesnt make any sense to me. They were looking for RH bat and instead they got a LH bat while also giving away 1st round pick
by viktor06 on Dec 12, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burrell's agent could ask for 15 million/year with this kind of offer
Not that he’d deserve it.
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Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by Jack Moore on Dec 12, 2008 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Over at OTM, we were talking about Manny not getting too much love at FA market
And I said ‘maybe this means teams are valuing defense more’. Yeah right…
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 12, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it's just that poor management hasn't realized that defense is important
It’s pretty clear that certain organizations are at least giving it some value (especially Seattle, a trade like that would never have happened nor gotten any sort of credit from anybody that didn’t value defense).
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Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by Jack Moore on Dec 12, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like the Phillies, but . . .
http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/08teamsalaries.htm
To say that they’ve got “poor management” isn’t really fair. 6th in NL payroll, and behind three teams that didn’t make the playoffs.
That said, I don’t much care for this move.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on Dec 13, 2008 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Phillies have new management
so it is way too early to pass good/poor management labels on them.
And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic...
by Blicks on Dec 13, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, yes and no
gillick is gone, true, but . . .
GM (Amaro): “[Ruben] Amaro joined the Phillies front office immediately after his playing career ended in 1998, hired by then Phillies General Manager Ed Wade. He served as Assistant GM for the Phillies for 10 seasons before being named General Manager. His first seven were under Wade, followed by three seasons under Gillick.”
a large part of the staff is new, gillick is still a “consultant,” i believe.
kind of playing devil’s advocate here, sorry to both blicks and jhmoore, not trying to pick on you guys.
the key to good management is not just paying attention to fielding, but paying the right attention. i mean, Jack Wilson is making $7.25M and i dont think that’s for the .273/.316/.370 (OPS+ of 77) line he put up in 2006.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on Dec 15, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, that was more of a general statement, not so much one about the Phillies in particular.
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Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by Jack Moore on Dec 13, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
okay, i see what you mean
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on Dec 15, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's been said many places that teams think Ibanez is capable defensively, much more than Manny/Dunn/Burrell.
So this might not be a “the Phillies don’t value defense” issue. It might be a “the Phillies don’t know how to measure defense” issue. At least in this case. Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Werth, Victorino play quality D.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 14, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe one of the double secret metrics WIll Carroll can't tell us about
have Ibanez at +20 and this is the steal of the century
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 14, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obligatory "Raul Ibanez Takes Pride in His Defense" Image

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http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting
by Kyle Boddy on Dec 12, 2008 7:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like this one..

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
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by WalrusMan on Dec 12, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They're both pleasing for different reasons.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 14, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if i had a nickel for everytime i see this video posted...
"I'm on hold for now- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 12, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But it is awesome
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 13, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
huh...
I’m not sure what I think, but the monkeys see this as an overpayment by, oh, about $20M.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Even Bill James has his OPS under .800
…and I’m pretty sure .800 is replacement level in the James’ projection “system”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love this move
Of course, I’m a Mets fan, and aside from all the negatives you’ve all already stated, it also prevented Omar from signing him. I think I’m gonna enjoy the Amaro era…
by cjmulrain on Dec 13, 2008 12:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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