Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: The 2009-2010 Card Chronicle Big East basketball preview

Fun With Math and Mariners

On the last day of the 2008 season, the Seattle Mariners sent Raul Ibanez, Wladimir Balentien, and Ichiro to man the outfield. Two months later, their outfield appears to be drastically improved, adding Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez last night in a huge deal that saw a dozen players change organizations. How much of an upgrade? Take a look at each outfielders' production in 2008 and projected defensive production in 2009.

2008 M's

Player FLD BAT WAR
Ibanez -1.3 1.63 1.83
Reed 0.6 -0.84 1.26
Balentien -0.5 -1.54 -0.54

2009 M's

Player FLD BAT WAR
Chavez 2 -1.09 2.41
Gutierrez 1.9 -0.8 3.6

One of the new M's will have to play center, I chose Gutierrez, but Chavez is just as capable.

We're not going to count Balentien against either year, but reduced playing time will help the Mariners overall. Plus, for now he's slated in as the M's fourth outfielder, who knows what could change in another month. Combine those totals and we get 3.09 for 2008 and 6.01 for 2009, or a difference of 2.92 WAR. That could swing up or down depending on a few variables. Most importantly, can Gutierrez improve offensively? And whether Endy Chavez is still as good as projected defensively. I'm inclined to answer yes to both. Here's a look at what Marcels projects:


wRAA
Gutierrez -4.7
Chavez             -7.6

That's with the projected PA, here's their RV/600 compared to last year:

2008 2009 Delta
-0.03658 -0.02077 0.015812
   -0.01818    -0.01044 0.007737

The Mariners new front office is showing a competence long forgotten in Seattle. Jack Zduriencik's next challenge will be whether to trade Adrian Beltre or hold onto him for compensatory picks.

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Beyond the Box Score

The JJ Putz Three-Way Trade

Dec 2008 by Peter Bendix - 19 comments

Comments

Display:

I like it better when other teams have crappy front offices

This guy is old enough to be Dayton Moore’s uncle, has an even more “old-school” background, and in less than a month or whatever has already GMed cirlces around him.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 11, 2008 11:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He should trade Beltre

There aren’t that many good 3Bman out there waiting to be traded, so the return should be good…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 12, 2008 5:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006

Recent FanPosts

Small
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly
Redcap_small
Ricky Nolasco: 4 WAR or 1 WAR?
Redcap_small
Apparently I can't do park adjustments
Small
Which tells us more: The last 7 at bats or 7 at bats against this pitcher?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

The Mistake Lottery
On the Field, the Yankees Are The Team of the Decade. Off It? The Red Sox.
Tigers' all-time WAR leaders
Primer on Runs Created
How to improve basketball
LB Keith Bulluck uses a sabermetric analogy to explain the Titans' quarterback situation.
Alcides Escobar "abandoned his daughter before she was born"
UZR, Scouting, and the Fans
Not-So-Lousy Lineup Optimizer, Playoff Edition: New York Yankees

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Most Commented

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright