O's Sign Cesar Izturis

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 12:02 PM EST Comment 23 comments

Izturis is one of my favorite quick fixes at shortstop. It seems like he's always available and he provides some value for next to nothing. Marcels has him at -17 runs versus average next season, Rally/Chone at +7 defensively, throw in the 7.5 positional and 22.5 replacement level modifiers and you get a value of 2 WAR. Even if you assume he's not quite that defender anymore, Izturis is still an upgrade over Juan Castro, who somehow logged most of the innings at shortstop last season for Baltimore.

Salary details aren't out there yet, but I'm guessing he's a bargain.

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The monkeys peg his market value as 1/4.4 or 2/6.6.

I was wondering about him as a stopgap guy, too.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Monkeys are good

The Orioles have all but finalized a two-year contract with free agent shortstop Cesar Izturis (right) that is believed to be worth about $6 million

Link

by VictorW on Dec 10, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is huge for the O's

Since the SS by committee last year really didn’t work out. And with a staff of young arms, we need defense behind them.

That monkeys sheet is fascinating, thanks for the link. Now if I could only figure out why Gregg Zaun is the most expensive FA C…which is who/what the O’s are looking at now.

The Yankees get Sabathia, the Mets get K-rod, and the Orioles get Ryan Freel.

by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2008 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I agree with you that the sheet is very fascinating though there are some flaws. Namely that there is a lot of generic assumptions (0.5 WAR decrease each year, 85% Games Played, etc.). I think that’s where you’ll get some headscratchers like Zaun, Ibanez and especially OF Milton Bradley (I bet his agent would LOVE to see this information). But overall, it’s definitely helpful and intriguing.

by woodfeld on Dec 10, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's deliberately generic

it’s more of an experiment to see what happens. If you read around, you’ll find that I hesitated on doing catchers because of playing time and lack of good defensive projections for them.

Keep in mind that these aren’t my projections, iether, and that Marcels doesn’t know anything about injuries, park effects, etc.

Marcels playing time estimates can be problematic in m any cases, too, so I just used it to generate the rate stats then rounded everyone to 85% (70% for catchers).

If you use it with your own playing time projections, just look at the “WARfull” or whatever I called column, then take whatever percentage of that you think the dude will play out of 162. Take that WAR figure and look at the generic salary chart to see what the guys market value is according to your estimate.

glad you liked it.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i read more after i posted

and saw the notes on catchers. This is what happens when you post at w*rk.

Until we have the catcher defense metrics sorted out (including pitch calling and other intangibles) they will be especially hard to value generically.

And catchers may only play 70% of games, but they are involved in 100% of throws when they are behind the plate. I know that position adjustments and cERA try to take care of this, but I just feel it bears repeating. Has anyone looked into cERA deltas (comparing catchers with a given pitching staff)?

Zaun just got a salary increase in his last contract, a large one percentage-wise, maybe this is why he’s projected to be the most valuable catcher?

The Yankees get Sabathia, the Mets get K-rod, and the Orioles get Ryan Freel.

by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no, I don't use anything from past contracts

the monkeys just project rate above replacement, then I put in generic playing time for everyone, and set it up according to $4.84M per win above replacement + $0.4M replacement salary/yr of contract with a generic rate of decline (since most player in FA are in a decline phase) of -0.5 WAR a year and 10% market rate inflation.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shouldn't Batimore try to find more of a longterm fix?

Ben Sheets is only being offered two years? GO GO GO

by JI on Dec 10, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing they'll use one of their trade chips to do that.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah

But someone who qualifies as a major leager is a good start. Starting pitching is an issue, they are overrun with undeveloped/AAAA types. Oh, and currently zero catchers on the 40 man roster.

They did acquire two infielders in the Freel deal, and there’s always the draft.

The Yankees get Sabathia, the Mets get K-rod, and the Orioles get Ryan Freel.

by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who needs catchers

when you have Matt Wieters?

by Willl on Dec 11, 2008 6:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really wanted MY to move to third and the Rangers to sign Izturis.

Oh well.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Dec 10, 2008 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

But Gold Glove?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shoot, I forgot. He's a Gold Glover.

Nevermind, we’re set.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Dec 10, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Izturis is only -17 runs? Huh.

I think one thing I’m forgetting to do in these analyses is reduce projected playing time below 700 PAs. My best guess, being hopefully appropriately conservative, would put Izturis at 550 PAs next yeat, or 1.4 WAR instead of 2.0

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I used FanGraph's new WRAA for that presumption.

I think it’s based on the Marcels PA projections.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I prefer the generic Tango Calc War method of getting the RV/700, doing the calculation for overall value , then taking a percentage of that. Easier, and adjusts everything together, rather than having to prorate a defensive adjustment nebulouslu for a certain number of ABs.

Of course, Rally’s def. projections are for 150, so the monkeys are already a ittle off.

But given that they can do statistical regression and I can’t, who am I to criticize?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm quite impressed with the market analysis thus far though. Thanks for keeping that data together.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're nice to say that

I wish I could take credit, but the monkeys will poop in my raisin bran

we’ll see if I can avoid my usual indolence and actually update it

it will be hard to focus given my joy with the Royals signing of Horacio Ramirez

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Off Topic Quote

if they were add just some of that stuff for minor leaguers i would name my first born fangraphs

A girl said this. That’s win.

She reads this blog, though, so I can’t lie and say something like “she’s my girlfriend.” It still made me laugh.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Dec 10, 2008 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand the criticism of the catcher evaluations.

They are given enough credit as a group, via the position adjustment. Most DON’T play more than 70% playing time. So sure, while we might not be able to measure defense all that well, we’re still giving the group enough credit and money.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 11, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs