tRA Votes For The 2008 Cy Youngs
If you're not familiar with tRA, get familiar. Here's the full explanation and there's also a no-numbers version. Basically, it's the next generation of DIPS. Pitchers receive park-adjusted credit or blame based on eight categories of outcomes (strikeouts, homeruns, walks, ground balls, etc) but aren't held responsible for whether the balls put in play are turned into outs or not. And instead of actual innings pitched, there's an expected IP total based on the same principles.
Some of you may wonder why I'm using tRA and not tRA*. The first is better at measuring past value (because it uses actual batted ball percentages) while the latter is regressed and a better representation of the true talent demonstrated by a pitcher (and thus a better sign of what's to come). As an example, a pitcher with a 0% line drive rate might not be able to sustain it going forward (so says tRA*), but that 0% sure was valuable in 2008 (so says tRA).
Anyway, by using tRA, xIP, and our trusty 5.75 estimate of replacement level ERA, we can compute each pitcher's contribution in runs above replacement. I've only tackled the starters, because I didn't want to deal with reliever leverage. And I've translated tRA onto the ERA scale by multiplying by .92. The ERA scale is just more intuitive to most people. (Thanks to Colin for suggesting the multiplication method instead of simply subtracting .40 runs.) And I've added in .30 runs for NL pitchers because of the lack of DH.
On to the numbers. Here's what the American League leader board looks like for 2008:
| Rank | Pitcher | xIP | tERA | RAR |
| 1 | Cliff Lee | 222.0 | 2.65 | 80 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | 239.7 | 2.97 | 76 |
| 3 | Ervin Santana | 221.3 | 3.11 | 67 |
| 4 | Javier Vazquez | 216.7 | 3.25 | 62 |
| 5 | A.J. Burnett | 224.7 | 3.39 | 60 |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | 208.3 | 3.46 | 55 |
| 7 | James Shields | 212.7 | 3.54 | 53 |
| 8 | Jon Lester | 208.3 | 3.58 | 51 |
| 9 | Mark Buehrle | 221.0 | 3.71 | 51 |
| 10 | Josh Beckett | 179.0 | 3.24 | 51 |
- No surprise who the top two finishers are. Halladay probably deserves a bit more respect than he got, though. And when you consider he pitched against tougher hitters...
- Ervin Santana's a great example of a pitcher who figured something out. His career ERAs haven't been that great, and his peripherals always supported that fact. But then this year he goes and sets career bests for K-rate (8.8 per game), BB-rate (1.9 per game) and GB-rate (39%). The question headed into 2009 isn't whether or not his 2008 ERA was a fluke, it's which skillset will show up.
- Ah yes, then you've got Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett, two pitchers with histories of posting ERAs worse than their peripherals would predict. These two pitchers might very well be examples of guys who give up batted balls that are harder to catch than the average pitcher's batted balls. One season of data certainly isn't enough to make conclusions about individual pitchers, but five seasons should be. Someone should tackle that study. Or we can just wait and hope for Hit f/x.
- Here's the next ten guys in the AL: Andy Sonnanstine, Gil Meche, John Danks, Scott Baker, Mike Mussina, Kevin Slowey, Andy Pettitte, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Matt Garza. That's three Rays in the top twenty, and none of them Scott Kazmimr. Three for the White Sox, too.
Let's switch over to the National League:
| Rank | Pitcher | xIP | tERA | RAR |
| 1 | Tim Lincecum | 223.0 | 2.90 | 71 |
| 2 | Brandon Webb | 231.3 | 3.09 | 68 |
| 3 | Dan Haren | 219.3 | 3.21 | 62 |
| 4 | Derek Lowe | 207.7 | 3.29 | 57 |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | 222.0 | 3.66 | 52 |
| 6 | Johan Santana | 232.3 | 3.76 | 52 |
| 7 | Randy Johnson | 193.3 | 3.34 | 51 |
| 8 | Ryan Dempster | 204.0 | 3.51 | 51 |
| 9 | Ben Sheets | 197.0 | 3.49 | 50 |
| 10 | CC Sabathia | 129.0 | 2.48 | 47 |
- Once again we see the "obvious" Cy Young choice leading the pack, but only by a nose over the number two pitcher. Brandon Webb deserves more attention, mostly because his home ballpark doesn't get enough recognition as an extreme hitters' park.
- Looking at Dan Haren's 2008 numbers, one has to wonder if Billy Beane regrets that trade at all. Sure would be nice to have him for the 2009 playoff push, no?
- Derek Lowe: stud. If he'll take a three year deal for $15MM per season, it's a steal for whoever signs him. And if Randy Johnson will take anything under that for a single season, that's another steal, even for a 45 year-old pitcher.
- If you combine CC Sabathia's stints in the AL and NL, he comes out at 81 RAR, number one in the majors.
- The next twenty in the NL: Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt, Edinson Volquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ricky Nolasco, Ted Lilly, Aaron Cook, Jair Jurrjens, and Carlos Zambrano.
Comments
good
I tend to group tRA and wOBA together since I learned about them at the same time on Statcorner. I thought with all the wOBA fanfare last week that tRA, which I like a little better and has been explained better, was getting the short shift.
by Aaron in Korea on
Dec 1, 2008 6:21 AM EST
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Billy Beane regretting the Haren trade?
Something in me highly doubts it. He traded two parts of it for Holliday, the would-be catalyst in any playoff-pushing this year, and he still has the other parts, including a fifth starter, a top pitching prospect, a cheap, right-handed outfielder who could be under-looked, and a dark horse power prospect to boot.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 1, 2008 8:46 AM EST
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You might call me a homer here
But there’s just no effing way Javier Vazquez had a better season than Jon Lester, or John Danks for that matter.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 1, 2008 11:10 AM EST
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WHY (not)?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Dec 1, 2008 2:47 PM EST
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Jon had Lower WHIP, lower FIP
Got more grounders, had a far higher WPA and so on. Also, you really have to split Lester’s season in 2. He was one pitcher before the no-hitter, and one after it. Kind of cherry picking, I get, but he was truly great after his game against the Royals.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 1, 2008 6:48 PM EST
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Why?
Compared to his previous comment, it was good. At least he gave some substance as to his conclusion.
I don’t necessarily agree though.
by R.J. Anderson on
Dec 1, 2008 6:57 PM EST
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Used WHIP, suggested that Vazquez was worse because you 'really have to split Lester's season in 2'
by Graham on
Dec 1, 2008 7:02 PM EST
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RJ's using the Carlos Delgado/Ryan Howard MVP argument.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Dec 1, 2008 7:04 PM EST
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Again, I disagree with his statements, but you do see the value in him explaining his viewpoint, right?
It’s easier to reason with than simply “There’s no way Vazquez was that good.”
by R.J. Anderson on
Dec 1, 2008 7:06 PM EST
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Glad to see all the love I'm getting
I’ve never said Javy was a bad pitcher. He’s a good pitcher that isn’t as good as his peripherals, but he’s still good. Also, what is wrong with WHIP? It’s not perfect, but it’s not all that bad. There’s no such thing as a ‘flawless’ stat. Even though in baseball you can tell better the individual contributions than in other team sports, it’s still a team sport. Don’t hate a stat only because it’s more traditional, or because you read it on SI or some shit like this.
Plus, feel free to disagree with me and even think I’m an ass. But at least read what I wrote in order to do so. I didn’t say Jon was better than Vazquez because of the split. I used it to make a point on how Lester improved as the season went on. He really matured, hey, he’s still young. He was pretty bad before his 8 IP shutout against the Jays, then he figured it out. Still, it doesn’t mean his season was better because of it, and it was never my point.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 1, 2008 7:46 PM EST
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"what is wrong with WHIP? It’s not perfect, but it’s not all that bad. "
I’ll write an essay.
“I used it to make a point on how Lester improved as the season went on.”
In an argument about how he was better than Vazquez over the course of this season.
by Graham on
Dec 2, 2008 11:15 AM EST
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That wasn't part of the argument
That was just to show how Lester improved during the season, you can see that. He was pretty ‘meh’ before the Blue Jays game.
My bad for not pointing it wasn’t part of the same argument.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 2, 2008 11:26 AM EST
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Good comment.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Dec 1, 2008 7:01 PM EST
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I should've said "better comment than your previous one."
Oh well.
by R.J. Anderson on
Dec 1, 2008 7:17 PM EST
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...it's not even possible?
We can argue in a bit whether or not it’s true – I haven’t spent more than 10 seconds considering the question until now so I don’t have a dog in the fight. But it seems a bit unseemly to argue that it isn’t even possible and then provide no evidence for the claim.
by cwyers on
Dec 1, 2008 6:19 PM EST
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It is possible
It isn’t very likely.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 1, 2008 6:49 PM EST
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I know
I need to stop being so lazy and post more stuff to back what I claim, he’s very much right.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 2, 2008 11:27 PM EST
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Great stuff as usual, Sky.
I particularly like the way you differentiated tRA and tRA* so succinctly.
by Peter Bendix on
Dec 1, 2008 2:29 PM EST
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