2008 SS Defense by PMR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 8, 2008 11:57 AM EST in Stat-Colored Glasses Comment 23 comments

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.

Today, we look at shortstop fielding - first on the team level and then for individuals.

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Brewers	4354	551	526	25	18.85075	17.32	17.65
Giants	4232	492	469.81	22.19	16.7319257	15.81	16.14
Marlins	4338	517	501	16	12.06448	11.12	11.45
Angels	4374	524	510.64	13.36	10.0738408	9.21	9.54
Cardinals	4597	580	566.37	13.63	10.2774289	8.94	9.27
Red Sox	4232	480	472.55	7.45	5.6175235	5.31	5.64
Phillies	4396	557	551.85	5.15	3.8832545	3.53	3.86
Braves	4383	566	561.4	4.6	3.468538	3.17	3.5
Diamondbacks	4224	469	465.74	3.26	2.4581378	2.33	2.66
Cubs	4156	498	495.33	2.67	2.0132601	1.94	2.27
Astros	4292	500	497.32	2.68	2.0208004	1.88	2.21
Athletics	4285	477	474.54	2.46	1.8549138	1.73	2.06
Rangers	4667	538	536.31	1.69	1.2743107	1.09	1.42
Dodgers	4265	546	544.65	1.35	1.0179405	0.95	1.28
Indians	4513	542	540.73	1.27	0.9576181	0.85	1.18
White Sox	4409	548	546.97	1.03	0.7766509	0.7	1.03
Royals	4413	508	507.3	0.7	0.527821	0.48	0.81
Rays	4264	490	490.56	-0.56	-0.4222568	-0.4	-0.07
Orioles	4540	537	539.06	-2.06	-1.5533018	-1.37	-1.04
Rockies	4535	587	589.61	-2.61	-1.9680183	-1.74	-1.41
Pirates	4683	577	580.37	-3.37	-2.5410811	-2.17	-1.84
Blue Jays	4215	476	479.71	-3.71	-2.7974513	-2.65	-2.32
Twins	4607	578	584.7	-6.7	-5.052001	-4.39	-4.06
Yankees	4349	491	499	-8	-6.03224	-5.55	-5.22
Nationals	4417	526	538.02	-12.02	-9.0634406	-8.21	-7.88
Mariners	4512	480	493.64	-13.64	-10.284969	-9.12	-8.79
Padres	4419	520	536.39	-16.39	-12.358552	-11.19	-10.86
Reds	4299	468	485.83	-17.83	-13.444355	-12.51	-12.18
Tigers	4536	519	544.4	-25.4	-19.152362	-16.89	-16.56
Mets	4335	498	524.64	-26.64	-20.087359	-18.54	-18.21

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Marco Scutaro	1352	173	157.04	15.96	12.0343188	35.6	35.93
Omar Vizquel	1863	210	193.6	16.4	12.366092	26.55	26.88
Mike Aviles	2277	271	252.42	18.58	14.0098774	24.61	24.94
Macier Izturis	1307	151	144.8	6.2	4.674986	14.31	14.64
Jed Lowrie	1142	123	118.01	4.99	3.7626097	13.18	13.51
J.J. Hardy	3804	477	460.72	16.28	12.2756084	12.91	13.24
Erick Aybar	2437	305	295.72	9.28	6.9973984	11.49	11.82
Alex Cora	1137	140	135.75	4.25	3.2046275	11.27	11.6
Cesar Izturis	3136	408	396.19	11.81	8.9050943	11.36	11.69
Jack Wilson	2231	285	278.88	6.12	4.6146636	8.27	8.6
Bobby Crosby	3740	423	411.71	11.29	8.5129987	9.1	9.43
Jason Bartlett	3208	380	372.71	7.29	5.4968787	6.85	7.18
Hanley Ramirez	3986	472	462.98	9.02	6.8013506	6.83	7.16
Juan Castro	1331	153	150.32	2.68	2.0208004	6.07	6.4
Jimmy Rollins	3537	451	443.43	7.57	5.7080071	6.46	6.79
Luis Rodriguez	1191	143	140.93	2.07	1.5608421	5.24	5.57
Yunel Escobar	3344	440	434.04	5.96	4.4940188	5.38	5.71
Nick Punto	1646	227	224.05	2.95	2.2243885	5.41	5.74
Orlando Cabrera	4218	527	521.06	5.94	4.4789382	4.25	4.58
Adam Everett	1183	156	154.33	1.67	1.2592301	4.26	4.59
Miguel Tejada	4062	472	469.63	2.37	1.7870511	1.76	2.09
Jhonny Peralta	3963	469	467.52	1.48	1.1159644	1.13	1.46
Michael Young	4165	489	487.98	1.02	0.7691106	0.74	1.07
Ryan Theriot	3615	425	424.27	0.73	0.5504419	0.61	0.94
Julio Lugo	1947	216	217.95	-1.95	-1.4703585	-3.02	-2.69
Angel Berroa	1730	225	227.09	-2.09	-1.5759227	-3.64	-3.31
Derek Jeter	3815	429	433.24	-4.24	-3.1970872	-3.35	-3.02
Stephen Drew	3820	422	429.34	-7.34	-5.5345802	-5.8	-5.47
Cristian Guzman	3640	441	449.15	-8.15	-6.1453445	-6.75	-6.42
John McDonald	1387	150	154.82	-4.82	-3.6344246	-10.48	-10.15
Yuniesky Betancourt	4173	446	460.45	-14.45	-10.895734	-10.44	-10.11
Troy Tulowitzki	2730	354	365.56	-11.56	-8.7165868	-12.77	-12.44
Edgar Renteria	3696	428	449.4	-21.4	-16.136242	-17.46	-17.13
Jose Reyes	4196	480	504.15	-24.15	-18.209825	-17.36	-17.03
Khalil Greene	2841	327	345.54	-18.54	-13.979716	-19.68	-19.35
Tony F Pena	1808	199	211.52	-12.52	-9.4404556	-20.89	-20.56
Brendan Harris	1480	159	170.68	-11.68	-8.8070704	-23.8	-23.47
Jeff Keppinger	2636	274	296.5	-22.5	-16.965675	-25.74	-25.41
David Eckstein	1445	149	163.53	-14.53	-10.956056	-30.33	-30

The most surprising thing here was how poorly both the Mets and Jose Reyes rated. Jeter was below average but not badly so. Hanley Ramirez somehow showed up +7, which is shocking considering his reputation as a butcher. Other reports seem to indicate Ramirez was better this year, but still below average. Considering how well the Blue Jays rated as a team, it's somewhat surprising to see their SSs this low (-2.3).

Rollins, who won the NL Glove, had a good season, but J.J. Hardy was much more deserving. In the AL, the best you can about Michael Young was that he was above average, and that there weren't a whole of outstanding SS performances. Bobby Crosby and Jason Bartlett would have been better bets who had at least 3/4 of a season at the position, but they were only rated about 5 runs better than Young.

Last year's rookie phenom, Troy Tulowitzki struggled with injuries this season, and his PMR reflected it. He was 33 runs above average last year, and 12 below this season (some of that may be due to how the run value is calculated, LABHoW used 490 expected outs last year, and I'm using 4000 BIP). It will be very interesting to see whether he can regain his fielding prowess next season.

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Comments

So, Michael Young winning a Gold Glove is still funny.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2008 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting that the Jeter and Han-Ram improvements are confirmed here, as well

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I found it more interesting that Aviles rated third best.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, over at RR we've been following that story

since he came up. The scouting reports all said he was a hack at SS… then after he had come up for a while, and the stats all said he was doing great, the scouts were suddenly saying “he’s no better than average to above average.” Funny how that works out.

It is a small sample size, especially for defense. We’ll see what he does next year. I posted about this on RR already.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chone Smith apparently ran some minor league fielding numbers and Aviles was amongst the best defenders.

Along with Longoria and a few others.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really? I haven't seen that

That’s pretty cool. Is that incorporated into his 2009 projections, or is it somewhere else?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here.

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2008/11/minor-league-fielding-stats.html

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome stuff, Dan. Great resource

Are the last two columns correct in the player table? For every player the numbers are extremely similar, regardless of how many chances each player actually had. For players well under 4000 chances, the Runs/4000 should be much more extreme than the RAA, right? Or am I misinterpreting those columns?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 8, 2008 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's RAA / 4000 BIP

Average in PMR isn’t exactly 0, so I’m taking the Runs/4000 and subtracting the average.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 8, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still confused

For example, Maicer Izturis is listed at with a RAA of 14.64 in 1307 balls in play. Over 4000 balls in play, wouldn’t that be something like 14×14.64 = 42 runs?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 8, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll change the column header – that column is runs above average for 4000 BIP.

For Izturis, if he’s 14.64 RAA/4000 then he’s really about 4.8 runs in his actual playing time.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 8, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I got it now, thanks.

The “runs delta” column is the unadjusted-for-playing-time number.

How about a column on a per-4000 basis, but that includes some regression? I realize it would probably be extreme given only one season, and even more extreme for the guys with 1500 BIP, but it would also probably be more accurate than thinking Scutaro was +36 runs over a full season and Eckstein is -30. I guess instead of a value measure, it would be a one-season true-talent estimation.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 9, 2008 9:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and I wonder who gets J.J. Hardy, if anyone.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2008 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

MGL mentioned at his blog that he's running UZR with BIS data in addition to the usual STATS data

That should be REALLY interesting.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 8, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is there any subscription service where one can obtain UZR for each year?

(I have the 2003- mid-2007 spreadsheet)… do we just have to wait for stuff to leak out at the Book BLog?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No.

I’m not exactly sure why MGL doesn’t release it all. Maybe something to do with commitments to teams he’s worked for and/or works with now…? He pays out of pocket for the play-by-play data, which isn’t cheap.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 8, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess Jed Lowrie can really play SS

At the beginning of the year, we all thought he couldn’t handle SS.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 8, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Totally Indictave Sample SIze

by Omar Little on Nov 10, 2008 2:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Omar Vizquel..

Robbed of Gold Glove.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 8, 2008 5:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not in 1/4 of a season

He was really good when he was out there, he just wasn’t out there enough.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 8, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know here, Dan.

He and Aviles might not have played a ton, but they still managed to save the most runs relative to average in their respective leagues at +12 and +14 runs. Given that replacement-level fielding is league-average fielding, can’t you assume that the rest of the playing time went to league-average fielders, meaning they were the most valuable fielders at their positions?

Any different argument would probably require a “true-talent” approach and some regression based on playing time. And I guess I’m not against that.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 9, 2008 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs