Marcel Projects The 2009 Leader Boards

Colin Wyers has posted a set of Marcel projections, and well, I just had to slice and dice them.  Marcel is Tom Tango's extremely basic forecasting system named after the monkey from Friends.  It sets the bar for what other, more professional forecasting systems should strive to surpass.  The system consists of:

  • A weighted average of the past three seasons stats.
  • An age adjustment.
  • Some regression.

That's it.  No park-adjustments.  No similarity scores.  No DIPS analysis.  No lineup analysis.  No nothing.  Even so, Marcel doesn't finish far behind more advanced systems like CHONE and PECOTA in year-end analyses.

Now on to the fun.  Here's how Colin's Marcels foresee the 2009 MLB leader boards in a number of popular hitting and pitching categories:

Player HR
Howard 37
Dunn 30
Arod 29
Pujols 29
Fielder 29
Braun 29
Pena 28
Dye 27
Thome 27
Teixeira 26
Delgado 26
Manny 26

 

Player SB
Reyes 47
Taveras 35
HanRam 32
Ellsbury 32
Bourne 31
Figgins 31
Pierre 31
Roberts 29
Crawford 29
Suzuki 28

 

Player wOBA
Pujols .438
Jones .412
Ortiz .407
Arod .407
Holliday .403
Manny .401
Wright .400
Cabrera .400
Berkman .399
Howard .396

Player PA
Reyes 581
Suzuki 574
Sizemore 572
Wright 567
Cabrera 565
Pedroia 563
Morneau 556
Young 554
Beltran 553
Utley 553
Iwamura 553
Ibanez 553

 

Player AVG
Pujos .342
Jones .322
Holliday .320
Mauer .320
Cabrera .319
Guerrero .316
Suzuki .315
Wright .312
Ordonez .311
HanRam .311
Pedroia .311

 

Player OBP
Bonds .470
Pujols .467
Jones .428
Helton .426
Manny .419
Mauer .419
Njohnson .418
Berkman .417
Ortiz .413
Cabrera .410

 

Player SLG
Pujols .625
Howard .582
Ortiz .572
Arod .564
Braun .562
Cabrera .555
Holliday .552
Jones .551
Manny .548
Fielder .544

 

Player ISO
Howard .301
Pujols .283
Ortiz .279
Dunn .268
Arod .265
Braun .261
Pena .258
Fielder .255
Soriano .249

 

Player RAA
Pujols 33
Cabrera 18
Howard 18
Holliday 18
Utley 17
Arod 17
HanRam 17
Jones 16
Wright 16
Fielder 15
Manny 15
Braun 15

 

Pitcher IP
Sabathia 187
Halladay 182
Johan 177
Hamels 174
Webb 173
Lincecum 172
Lee 172
Burnett 170
Ervin 170

 

Pitcher ERA
Lincecum 3.61
Harden 3.70
Halladay 3.78
Sabathia 3.79
Peavy 3.80
Webb 3.81
Johan 3.82
Hamels 3.91
Cain 3.94
Haren 3.97

 

Pitcher SO
Lincecum 165
Sabathia 160
Johan 154
Burnett 150
Hamels 148
Ervin 141
Cain 139
Haren 139
Vazquez 139
Billingsley 137
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