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Best Right Fielders Of 2008

Other positions:  1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | CA

Like I did last year, I'm going to spend the few two weeks discussing the top ten players at each position based on 2008 performances.  This year I'm using Justin's stats, which have all the nice features of the home-brewed stats I calculated last year, but with the added benefit of making Justin do all the work:

  • BaseRuns-derived offensive linear weights, with park adjustments.
  • League-adjusted replacement-level, since AL pitching is stronger than NL pitching.
  • Proper position adjustments using the CA - SS - 2B/3B/CF - LF/RF - 1B - DH spectrum.
  • Combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs to measure fielding.

Players are listed at the position they played the most, but the defensive numbers from all positions are included, and players' contributions to multiple teams are combined. For the top ten players at each position, I've listed their offensive contribution above replacement level and their defensive contribution (position adjustment plus fielding relative to position) compared to average.  Position and fielding are broken out in the table at the end.  If you add offense plus position, you'll get a number with the same use as VORP, but better.

To help you put the Total Value number in perspective, here are some benchmarks given a full season of playing time:

  • League-average is about 20 runs above replacement.
  • The cut-off for true All-Stars is in the 40 run range.
  • Top 5 MVP candidates are worth at least 70 runs above replacement.
  • MVP winners have been in the 90-100 run range the past few years.

Without further ado, here are the top ten left fielders of 2008 (2007 numbers here):

10. Shin-Soo Choo (36 off, -3 def, 33 tot) -- Adam Jones is a name that kills Mariners fans, but Choo's should be right up there, too.  He crushed the ball to the tune of a .309/.397/.549 line over 370 plate appearances this year and played above-average defense.  All for (next to) free.

9. Vladimir Guerrero (40 off, -7 def, 33 tot) -- I'm actually a bit surprised to see Vlad this high, as I was under the impression that he fell off a cliff this year.  Must have been fooled by the slow start.

8. Alex I Rios (31 off, 4 def, 35 tot) -- As much derision as JP Ricciardi deserves for his long-term extension of Vernon Wells, he deserves as much credit for locking up Rios, who has the talent to be an even better hitter than he showed this year.

7. Andre E Ethier (45 off, -9 def, 36 tot) -- Sometimes the young hitters just force you to play them no matter how much you don't want to.  Any chance the Dodgers let Ethier go in return for some young Rays pitching and/or Reid Brignac?

6. Ichiro Suzuki (39 off, -1 def, 38 tot) -- Cue the debate: do the advanced fielding metrics consistently underrate Ichiro or do the fans consistently overrate him?  And while we're beating dead-horse topics, does Bert Blyleven belong in the Hall of Fame?

Star-divide

5. Randy Winn (33 off, 5 def, 38 tot) -- Do the Giants even know what they have here?  If so, why is he still in San Francisco instead of already traded for younger pieces that will help the organization towards the playoffs in 2010?

4. Jayson Werth (32 off, 9 def, 41 tot) -- Last year the Phillies had two good-hit, good-glove right fielders splitting time.  This year, they were the starting center- and right-fielders.  And the team won the World Series.  Connect the dots.

3. Nick Markakis (59 off, -12 def, 48 tot) -- His defensive reputation is better than a -5 run guy, but hey, if I were to tweak things based on my subjective opinions, Mark Ellis would be the AL MVP.  Markakis is still an underrated beast.

2. Ryan Ludwick (57 off, -7 def, 51 tot) -- I recently had a long debate with a Cardinals fan that Yadier Molina was the second most valuable player on St. Louis this year.  My first counter-argument was that it was the fielders that made the pitchers look so not-horrible, not Molina.  My second was Ryan Ludwick.

1. Brian Giles (49 off, 7 def, 56 tot) -- Most underrated player in the game?  He posted a .400 OBP and slugged .450 in the cavernous dimensions of PETCO.  He was one of the best fielding corner outfielders in the majors.  And people are wondering if the Padres will pick up his $9MM option for 2009.  Uh, that sort of production is worth $27MM on the free agent market.

Here's the list of the top twenty-five most productive right fielders in 2008:

Rank Player Off Pos Field Total
1 Brian Giles 49 -7 13 56
2 Ryan Ludwick 57 -6 -1 51
3 Nick Markakis 59 -7 -4 48
4 Jayson Werth 32 -3 12 41
5 Randy Winn 33 -6 11 38
6 Ichiro Suzuki 39 -3 2 38
7 Andre E Ethier 45 -6 -3 36
8 Alex I Rios 31 -3 7 35
9 Vladimir Guerrero 40 -4 -2 33
10 Shin-Soo Choo 36 -3 0 33
11 J.D. Drew 37 -5 -2 31
12 Denard D Span 27 -3 5 29
13 Jermaine Dye 41 -7 -7 27
14 Bobby Abreu 45 -7 -28 26
15 Magglio Ordonez 40 -6 -10 24
16 Kosuke Fukudome 15 -6 15 24
17 Franklin R Gutierrez 6 -4 21 23
18 Elijah D Dukes 24 -3 2 22
19 Xavier Nady 29 -4 -4 22
20 Nelson R Cruz 15 -1 5 19
21 Ryan J Sweeney 15 -2 3 16
22 Gabe J Gross 13 -4 5 15
23 Brad B Hawpe 30 -6 -24 14
24 Ryan M Church 12 -4 6 14
25 Eric Hinske 20 -4 -3 13

Regarding Abreu and Hawpe, remember that these data are capping any player's defensive value on the low end at what he would have earned as a DH.  I go back and forth on whether that's a smart move (and it really depends on the specific question you're asking), but the nice thing is that all the numbers are there for you to make your own decision.  If you remove the cap, Abreu was a 10 RAR player and Hawpe was exactly replacement level.

By the way I sliced and diced Justin's data, Adam Dunn's numbers with the Reds and DBs were not combined, because he was a left fielder for the Reds and a right fielder for the DBs.  In total, he produced 31 runs more than replacement-level, which would have snuck him onto the left field top ten list.  Oh, well, sorry Adam.  His new paycheck should make up for my (unintentional) lack of respect.

Here's the bottom of the right field barrel:

Player Off Pos Field Total
Wladimir R Balentien -9 -1 -6 -17
Jeff B Francoeur -8 -7 0 -14
Jose Guillen 11 -5 -14 -7
Alexander R Romero -5 -1 1 -5
Gary Matthews Jr. 5 -3 -6 -5

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Comments

Display:

It’s exciting to think that the Royals are rumored to be considering acquiring Jeff Francoeur to bookend their outfield with Jose Guillen. Chuck Lamar, come back, all is forgiven.

Speaking of Ichiro and advanced metrics (sorry, I can’t resist)… what’s up with Justin having him +33 runs in CF last year, while he’s below average in (mostly) RF this year?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Markakis

Right Field Inn GS G PO A E DP .985 *2.15
—————-———-—-—————-—-——-+——-
NMarkakis 1367 155 156 327 17 3 3 .991 2.26

Led the majors IIRC in outfield assists, above average range factor and FP, rated #2 in +/-, and he gets a -4 fielding?!?

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 5, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

throwing arm is not considered in this analysis. I'm hoping John Walsh publishes his ratings over at THT soon.

If he rates well in +/-, I’m guessing the STATS zone rating kills him…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 2:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It must be

Giles made 7 errors with 70 less BIZ, has 30 points of RZR less than Markakis, but made 16 more OOZ.

I’m assuming that the two measures use different zones…I don’t know much about STATS data.

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 5, 2008 3:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Abreu

Wow, that’s some REALLY bad fielding.

by JoshNY on Nov 5, 2008 1:53 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

assists/throwing arm not counted

I just can’t get into the fielding metric used here when abreu rates this low because of his arm not being included. Abreu has a cannon arm and this has to be taken into affect, plus he’s very accurate.

by kdog on Nov 6, 2008 10:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

are u watchin the same games as me?

Abreu has a good arm acblue..bottom line

by kdog on Nov 7, 2008 1:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

by John Walsh's arm ratings over at THT, Abreu's arm has been worth between 0 and +4 runs over the past few years

2008 data not available yet. Arm are significant, but usually overrated.

I doubt Abreu’s -28 runs number is accurate, but he was still really bad, good arm or bad arm

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 7, 2008 1:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dewan's has him at -24 plays

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 1:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks for the stats from tht

It’s hard to believe because when u watch him he seems decent in the field. Maybe I’m overrating him.

by kdog on Nov 7, 2008 5:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cruz

Please let him play a full season…

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Nov 5, 2008 2:39 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're preaching to the converted here, brother.

Nelson Cruz needs at least 600 PA’s next season.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.

by thedirkatron on Nov 5, 2008 3:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Would you like him in a platoon, Dirk?

At least to start the season, with Murphy.

by philkid3 on Nov 5, 2008 3:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Absolutely not.

Murphy is at best an average ML COF’er.

I don’t want him stealing AB’s from a guy who’s better defensively right now (remember that these defensive ranking don’t take into account Cruz’s man-cannon and he’s still plussy-plus in RF) and has actual offensive ceiling.

I want Cruz playing every single day until he proves once and for all that last year’s two-level beastliness was a fluke.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.

by thedirkatron on Nov 5, 2008 3:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Murphy's really good defensively, too.

I think maybe you’re just higher on Cruz than I am.

by philkid3 on Nov 5, 2008 4:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is he?

I’d say he’s our 5th best defensive OF after Boggs, Hambone, Byrd and Cruz. Admitedly all those guys are really good, but Murphy just never struck me as particularly great out there. He’s okay in LF, but he doesn’t have the speed for center or the arm for right.

Even if I go along with you and say that Murphy is as good in LF as Cruz is in RF, then I’ll still take the really good defensive RF with upside in his bat over the really good defensive LF with a .320 OBP and a low power ceiling.

I mean, what is David Murphy’s upside at the plate? An .800 OPS? .850? I just don’t see it with the Mosquito. I really don’t.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.

by thedirkatron on Nov 5, 2008 4:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hambone wasn't too good.

But he projects well and improved as the season went along, particularly in the corner. Byrd I think is about average, but better in center than I think Murphy could be maybe.

Here were their +/- numbers. . .

Boggs: 10
Cruz: +5 (2 LF, 3 RF)
Byrd: 0 (0 CF, -3 LF, +3 RF)
Hamilton: -11 (-13 CF, +2 RF)
Murphy: -8 (10 RF, -9 LF, -9 CF)

I’m not sure what happened to Murphy in left, he got worse as the season went along there. But he was so good in right in just as much time, and he projected so well coming in, I think he’s a significantly above average corner outfielder defensively. I don’t know about him ever playing center, though.

Boggs is awesome.

Murphy outperformed his PECOTA this year by a pretty good margin. Before that, he was a still projected to be a 260/330/430 player for the next several years (in a neutral environment) with a regular .260 or higher EqA.

I don’t expect him to really be too much, if at all, better than that, but I’m also not ready to believe Cruz necessarily turned the corner based on his smallish Major League sample yet, either. Murphy was a three star prospect in BP last year and did nothing but increase his stock, if anything, this year. Cruz wasn’t in their radar.

I’m not saying I like Murphy to be great or anything, but I do like him in the field and against right handed bats unless Cruz can really make it stick and prove he’s no longer a AAAA player.

by philkid3 on Nov 5, 2008 6:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Holy crap!

I named Brian Giles the best right fielder in baseball elsewhere a few weeks ago and got laughed at!

by philkid3 on Nov 5, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Church

Nice to see him end on a positive note. Can’t help but wonder how much higher he’d be if not for the concussion…

by MatthewA on Nov 5, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Click through to last years' numbers. I'm pretty sure he was well inside the top ten.

Or take this year’s number and pro-rate from his actual PAs to 650 PAs…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 8:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

long but good

Ichiro I think has to be the best right fielder in the game defensively if he was one of the top center fielders. The dude is a stud with a rocket launcher attached to his shoulder who lives to play baseball.

by kdog on Nov 6, 2008 10:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In Kansas City

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 7:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Possible

But if it happens, it won’t be the superior defense that draws Dayton Moore to him, it’ll be that sporty .307 OBP.

by CapgrasDelusion on Nov 5, 2008 8:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

(head in hands)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 8:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm... JD's June carried him in the offensive category it seems.

I wish he could play up to the potential that the folks at Lowndes High still talk about. I wish I had been able to stay in Valdosta for the rest of my childhood… Oh well, my current high school is playing for their first ever district football title on Friday, so I’m happy!

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 5, 2008 9:32 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ethier for Brignac?

That’s not as silly as E-Jax for Butler/Pence, but it’s pretty close. He OBPed .299 this season in AAA and .328 the year before in AA.

And I thought we, Red Sox fans, were the ones that overrate our young prospects.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 6, 2008 1:00 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pretty sure everyone does

except Royals fans, who have conservatively penciled in Kila Ka’aihue for .270/.380/.530 with 28 home runs after his call-up next June.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 6, 2008 12:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I K ever getting a call-up?

Because the Royals have, like, 32 first-basemen.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 6, 2008 12:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We'll have to see how it shakes out after DMGM

trades Billy Butler for Yuniesky Betancourt. I mean “we’ll see if there isn’t mass suicide at Royals Review.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 6, 2008 1:59 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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