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Valuing The Free Agent Hitters

There's plenty of speculation floating around the web about how much the current class of free agents will sign for, but there's not as much discussion about what they should sign for.  I come to remedy that situation.

Below are listed all the hitters from Tim Dierkes' list of the Top 50 Free Agents, for whom I've attempted to project their true talent objectively.  For offense, I eye-balled a weighted average of their Batting Wins from Baseball-Reference.  For position, I used Tom Tango's position adjustments.  And for fielding, I used Sean Smith's fielding projections (which you really should check out if you haven't already).

To convert to replacement-level, I added in 2.25 wins.  And then to come up with a dollar value for each player, I multiplied the total WAR (wins-above-replacement) by $4.84MM (a 10% increase over last off-season's $4.4MM per marginal win) and added in the $400K minimum salary.

To be clear, I don't claim that these numbers are accurate to the nearest million dollars or should be accepted by all of you reading this article.  The beauty of having this list is that we now have a starting point.  If you think Manny Ramirez is going to totally fall off a cliff, simply adjust his offensive number down.  If you think Orlando Hudson's glove will rebound to Mark Ellis territory, simply adjust his fielding number up.  Every half-win is worth $2.4MM.  Go crazy.

Here's the data, sorted from the most- to the least-valuable players:

Pos Player Hit Field Pos WAR $MM
1B Mark Teixeira 3.5 0.6 -1.25 5.1 $25
LF Milton Bradley 2.5 0.5 -0.75 4.5 $22
LF Manny Ramirez 3.5 -1.5 -0.75 3.5 $17
2B Orlando Hudson 0.5 0.3 0.25 3.3 $16
SS Rafael Furcal 0.0 0.2 0.75 3.2 $16
3B Joe Crede -0.5 1.0 0.25 3.0 $15
DH Milton Bradley 2.5 -1.75 3.0 $15
LF Adam Dunn 2.5 -1.3 -0.75 2.7 $13
SS Edgar Renteria 0.0 -0.6 0.75 2.4 $12
CF Jim Edmonds 0.5 -0.6 0.25 2.4 $12
2B Mark Grudzielanek -0.5 0.3 0.25 2.3 $12
LF Raul Ibanez 2.0 -1.3 -0.75 2.2 $11
1B Jason Giambi 2.0 -0.8 -1.25 2.2 $11
LF Pat Burrell 2.0 -1.4 -0.75 2.1 $11
SS Orlando Cabrera -1.0 0.1 0.75 2.1 $11
CA Ivan Rodriguez -1.0 1.25 2.0 $10
CA Jason Varitek -1.0 1.25 2.0 $10
RF Casey Blake 0.5 -0.75 2.0 $10
RF Bobby Abreu 1.5 -1.1 -0.75 1.9 $10
2B Ray Durham 0.5 -1.1 0.25 1.9 $10
LF Garret Anderson 0.0 -0.3 -0.75 1.2 $6
  • Note that I reduced the catchers' production by 20% to account for lower expected playing time.  I also didn't include a fielding rating for any of them.
  • Sean's fielding projections didn't have an outfield projection for Casey Blake.  I think he's pretty average out there.
  • Milton Bradley is listed as both a right fielder and a designated hitter, since some people don't think he's a good injury risk in the field, even though he's a good fielder.  On the other hand, guys like Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn are almost exactly as valuable in the field as compared to designated hitter.
  • Mark Teixeira is clearly the cream of the free agent crop.  Not only does he deserve the most money, he should get the longest contract, due to his age.
  • Keep in mind these players' dollar values are being compared to other free agent salaries.  Spending money on free agents is usually a waste of money, and really is only a smart idea when used to plug holes on teams expecting to contend for the playoffs.
  • Free agent starters can be found here.

Which values do you most disagree with?  Which players will actually be paid much more or much less than their listed salaries?  Which other free agent position players are worth analyzing?

0 recs  |  Comment 60 comments |

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Let's say Raul Ibanez is a DH.

Am I doing it right by following these steps:
A) Adding 2.25 to HIT (4.25)
B) Dumping the fielding numbers.
C) Changing “POS” to -1.75
D) 4.25 – 1.75 =
E) 2.5*4.84

Therefore, MM = 12.1?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 3:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

You numbers geek, you. Actually, make sure to add in the $400K minimum salary, too. Because it makes a huge difference.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, i think the position adjustment for future DHs should be -2.25

If considering guys who were DHs in the past, use -1.75. Why? Because moving from a position to DH tend to make hitters about .5 wins worse with the bat. (Reference: The Book)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 9, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cool job

I thought about doing something like this using bRAA(wOBA* version)/10.5 for wins, but I’m glad someone else did, as it was “on my list.” Did you prorate hitting and fielding for PAs and innings played in the field? That would be important, of course, especially for guys like Milton Bradley, who is one of the best hitters on the market when he’s healthy.

I hope you do one for “lower level” hitters too, like Eric Hinske and Russ Branyan, who are clearly on a lower level, but still might offer good utility on the cheap…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

bRAA might even be more accurate than Batting Wins

But the trick is doing a proper projection.

There’s no playing time adjustment, except for the catchers. I just didn’t know how to do that objectively. And Milton should be able to come pretty close to playing DH full time.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Milton still had trouble this year

but it was a lot better, yes. But it makes a big difference for his OF projection, right? Because if they’re based on the same playing time, then that’s about a $5M/year difference between a defensivelly average corner OF (granted Bradley may still be above average) and a DH who have the same offensive value, as you know.

Was your weighted average 5-4-3 or 5-3-2 or what?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wish ZiPS and/or CHONE would hurry up

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lovely, just lovely.

Thanks a lot, Colin.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 10:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No problem.

Note that those are ones I did, not Tango. From our discussions I think I’ve got everything set up pretty close to what he does, but when his come out I’d probably go with those. (I also don’t have the “official” year-end numbers yet, but I don’t think that’ll change much.)

by cwyers on Nov 5, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, I saw those. Nice work.

the Alex Gordon one was too depressing. I can’t handle the truth.

I’ve never quiet understood the methodology. Is it just 5-4-3, adjusted for age and regressed to league average?

I guess I could do it. YOu know, if I knew how to adjust for age or do any statistical regression at all.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Close.

5/4/3/2, where “2” is two seasons of the league average player at 650 PAs per season ( I think; I’d have to double-check to be sure on that.) Age adjustment is modest. Here’s how Tango explains it.

by cwyers on Nov 5, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

I’ve seen it before, but it makes more sense now.

How is the projected league average generated?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also

are b-r’s batting wins based on batting runs (say, batting runs/10.5)? Because according to the site, batting runs are park- and league-adjusted, but it’s not clear to me whether battings wins are.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yea..

I’d like to see not only the top dogs but also the small signings. I guess it could be something to do later towards spring when some players have signed small deals with a club.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 4, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Joe Crede should make more money than Adam Dunn?

Really? I mean, I’m sure the numbers are right, but he played like 10 games the last couple of seasons and is a career .306 OBPer.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's part of the problem with not being able to project playing time

on the other hand, Adam Dunn is such a bad defender that his best position is DH, and Joe Crede is about +15-20 runs a season at 3B.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure Crede would be very valuable if he could stay healthy

Like you said, there’s no way to project playing time. When you consider a full season of Dunn DHing vs. half a season by Crede, I think Dunn has much more value.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree Crede isn't a full-time player

You can do that mentally, though. Consider these for 650 PAs and pro-rate accordingly. For players with significantly less playing time than that over the past few years, I mentally pro-rated their batting-wins up to a full season. And the position adjustments and fielding adjustments are all on a full-season basis. So just take the WAR numbers or $MM numbers and cut by 30% or 50% or whatever.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I see

It’s just odd to see Crede with this value, because he can’t play full-time. It’s just hard for me to think about Crede as a nice player he’d be if he could stay healthy.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like this

but I’d really be interested if you could do the parts bin too.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 4, 2008 4:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

basically yeah

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 4, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

for Hinske, basically imagine Ross Gload

except with a touch more defensive versatility, and the ability to hit a baseball better than the average player

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He can play 3B as well as Melvin Mora, LF as well as Pat Burell, and RF almost as well as Jose Guillen!

He’s about average at first, hits righties like Mike Jacobs with a bit less power and a lot more walks, an hits lefties almost exactly like Jacobs

VERSATILITY, BABY!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He looks goofy

All fat players seem like such great guys…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Helped Kirby Puckett come off as a "great guy" for years...

(ahem)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but he looked funny

Fat players should not be assholes, it’s just wrong.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the full FA list:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

Let’s start a list of worthwhile players, that (i.e. not Josh Bard). Worthwhile probably means players who are still capable of starting a full season.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, Josh Bard isn't a bad idea

I mean, he’s no Javier Valentin…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Starting a full season"

That’s a problem. Guys like Hinske SHOULDN’T start a full season, but rather platoon. I’d include Kevin Mench.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lefty sides of a platoon are worth evaluating, true.

Righty sides just aren’t worth more than a couple million bucks, so nobody’s going to disagree that much on their value

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

(insert Jose Guillen joke here)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

$35 million dollar check for next year, coming right up.

Welcome to the team, Mr. Texeira. Mr. Varitek will be more than happy to show you to your locker, as it is next to his.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2008 5:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh look.

22 million for a type B free agent.

:(

by philkid3 on Nov 4, 2008 5:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

A few agreements/disagreements

I see Dunn as more of a 2.25 WAR player, 2.5 at most. So more of a 10.6M-12.1M first year of contract. Burrell’s a bit hower than that — really a league average player if you “cap” his defensive + pos penalty a -2.25 wins (as I’ve done for everyone). Then Ibanez is a bit under that.

Maybe because I’m using bRAA/10.5 rather than batting wins (and the -2.25 cap helps a lot here), I have Bobby Abreu projected better than any of those similar (good hit, terrible field OFers) guys… even taking off half a win for age he’s almost as good as Dunn.

I have O-Dog a bit higher, but not much. My defensive numbers might be a bit high, and I’m not sure how to take his injury into account. Furcal about the same as you — just a bit less than O-Dog, although his injury is a lot scarier.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 5:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

sorry...

It’s just basically bRAA from statcorner from the last three years, weighted 5-3-2 or 5-4-3 then guesstimated. It doesn’t exactly take playing time into account, although since bRAA is ((wOBA*-lgwOBA)/PA)*PA I guess it does sort of weight playing time.

Do you want the exact numbers here? I’m not trying to start a debate or anything, just how I see things.

Going 2008, 2007, 2006, here’s the bRAA from some of the players listed above:

Dunn: 25.1, 32.9, 12.6 (weighted 5-3-2, pos+def = -22.5, divide by 10.5, + 2 wins for NL = 2.23 WAR

Abreu 26.1, 18.8, 26.8 (all the same except +2.5 wins for AL) = 2.65, subtract .5 for age 2.15 WAR

Burrell 20.1, 28.4, 22.8 (all the same, +2 wins for NL) = 2.5, subtract .5 for age = 2 WAR

Ibanez 18.1, 17, 18.8 (same, +2.5 wins for AL) = 2.1, subtract .5 for age = 1.6 WAR ( which I guess means more like between $7-8M)

That’s just how I did some of it, those are the easy ones to push out there. I wasn’t trying to criticize you, just throw some other numbers out there. I certainly concede your greater skill in these matters. If you want more, I can post it later.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i just wanted the runs-above-average you used, so i can compare it to the runs above average that i used

not saying either one is better or worse, just trying to see where they differ.

when you list the three braa numbers, tell me what you used as their weighted average

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 8:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was weighting them in the order I typed them

sorry…

I think it was 5-3-2 (2008-2007-2006). I can’t remember why I decided on that one, it was a while back.

Also, I don’t think I figured in the $400,000 minimum per year… D’oh, although Tango’s original salary chart didn’t include it, either…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i know that. i just wanted to see the actual number that popped out of each calculation

For example, I “projected” Dunn as +2.5 wins above average offensively in the chart. Using your weighting of bRAA, what number did you come up with for just that piece?

I ask, because going piece by piece can keep the discussion a bit more organized. So you say, “I have Dunn as +1.5 wins instead, by using such and such methodology” (which you’ve already explained. I say, “ok, hmm, interesting” and we figure out why one would be better than the other.

On an unrelated note, I believe the Marcels use 5-4-3 for hitters and 5-3-2 for pitchers, with regression weighted 2 as well.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, as per above, I have no idea who to do a regression

is it just factoring in a “2” weight for league average?

I guess the 5-4-3 for hitters should change how I do things…

Is my post above along the lines you’re thinking?

btw, I hope the Royals bring back Grudz at a bargain price of $8M!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh, I think I'm being clear, maybe someone else can help us connect here...

My question: “What is the batting runs above average number you are using in your calculation of Dunn’s projecte WAR?” And then, what is that number for each player?

And yes, the regression is just averaging in two seasons (600 PAs? 650 PAs?) of league-average performance.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry... I think I get it now

Projected runs above average, without regression league to average, weight 5-4-3, rounded to the nearest tenth of a run:

Dunn: +24.6

Burrell: +23.5 (I took the half-win off after converting to wins and adding in defense, so I guess about +18.3 or something if you want to adjust just offense for age)

Ibanez: +17.9 (cf. Burrell, maybe +12.7 or something like that adjusted for age)

Abreu: 23.8 (18.3)

Sorry about my thick head.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oops, Abreu more like +23.8 (18.5)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff.

I seem to randomly have a disconnects with people on topics and I’m always curious what’s causing it…

Your offensive numbers are all within half a win of what I projected in the article, except for Abreu, who you have almost .9 wins better. I’ll take a closer look at him.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 8:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, but sorry I'm such a dumbass

I appreciate the flattery, but word of warning: any alleged analysis-like substance in my posts is likely worthless, and might be hazardous to your ability to think clearly.

Any particular reason to prefer either bRAA or Batting Wins/Runs?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

advantages

BtWins includes SB/CS.

bRAA probably (although I’m not sure) includes better park factors.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 6, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe on Abreu

the difference is baserunning. I don’t account for it at all, and he was 22-33 (I think, off the top of my head) this year. I guess I thought that would hurt him more.

His fielding was horrible, of course but I think his value as a hitter, while down, gets a bit lost. Sure he “only” slugged .470 (certain teams [ahem] would have killed for that this year), but a .370 OBP is always nice. He also came to the plate a LOT… that really helps.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bRAA doesn't include stolen bases

althoughI think I saw that you could add +.25 runs for SB, and -.50 for a CS.

I suspect bRAA’s main advantage is that of wOBA’s: fixing the relative weights of HRs and BBs. I think.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 4, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

batting wins is is based on linear weights, which should have the weights pretty correct

I find B-Ref’s park factors a bit suspect, though.

The +.25 and -.50 numbers are for wOBA. You want to use something more like +.17 and -.33 (I forget, just look up linear weights) if altering the bRAA number.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why the motivation to switch to bRAA/wOBA, then?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Readjusting the totals via 5-4-3 on the defenseless hitters (-2.25 def (approx))

Dunn: 2.2 WAR, $10.6M first year (a bit lower)

Abreu: Almost exactly the same (lower)

Burrell: Almost exactly the same (lower)

Ibanez: Almost exactly the same

Well, that was a waste of time.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't understand why you aren't capping the defensive penalties of these guys.

Adam Dunn is losing significant ground relative to him just being a DH. Ditto Manny, Ibanez, Burrell, Abreu, Giambi, the whole DH crew.

This is applicable if you’re an NL team but it’s not applicable if you’re an AL team with an even marginally competent defensive player (eg Jack Cust, Garret Anderson, Jim Thome) filling your DH slot.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 4, 2008 9:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The cap is -2.25 wins defensively for the DH penalty. Nobody hits that number.

Well, Manny does exactly. But nobody’s over it.

There’s actually a typo for Milton Bradley’s DH line. He should be a half win worse (I’ve got him at -1.75 for defense instead of -2.25).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 5, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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