Best Shortstops of 2008
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 10:32 AM EST
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PrintOther positions: 1B | 2B | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
Like I did last year, I'm going to spend the few two weeks discussing the top ten players at each position based on 2008 performances. This year I'm using Justin's stats, which have all the nice features of the home-brewed stats I calculated last year, but with the added benefit of making Justin do all the work:
- BaseRuns-derived offensive linear weights, with park adjustments.
- League-adjusted replacement-level, since AL pitching is stronger than NL pitching.
- Proper position adjustments using the CA - SS - 2B/3B/CF - LF/RF - 1B - DH spectrum.
- Combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs to measure fielding.
Players are listed at the position they played the most, but the defensive numbers from all positions are included, and players' contributions to multiple teams are combined. For the top ten players at each position, I've listed their offensive contribution above replacement level and their defensive contribution (position adjustment plus fielding relative to position) compared to average. Position and fielding are broken out in the table at the end. If you add offense plus position, you'll get a number with the same use as VORP, but better.
To help you put the Total Value number in perspective, here are some benchmarks given a full season of playing time:
- League-average is about 20 runs above replacement.
- The cut-off for true All-Stars is in the 40 run range.
- Top 5 MVP candidates are worth at least 70 runs above replacement.
- MVP winners have been in the 90-100 run range the past few years.
Without further ado, here are the top ten shortstops of 2008 (2007 numbers here):
10. Stephen Drew (29 off, -1 def, 28 tot) -- The only bad news on Drew's 2008 season is that his walk-rate took a huge hit from 2007. But a 50 point increase in batting average and a 100 point increase in isolated power are certainly worth that trade-off. I'm curious to see what his 2009 stat line looks like.
9. Derek Jeter (26 off, 3 def, 29 tot) -- Jeter significantly improved his fielding in 2008, although that's not saying much. So even with his bat taking a step down he was still a productive shortstop. The problem for the Yankees will come in a year or two when both his offense and defense take a hit in the same year. Moving him to first isn't really a good answer, especially if planning ahead for that occurrence prevents the signing of Mark Teixeira.
8. Yunel Escobar (16 off, 15 def, 30 tot) -- From the Braves' point of view, that Edgar Renteria deal must have seemed like a no-brainer, huh?
7. Marco Scutaro (11 off, 24 def, 35 tot) -- Who knew Marco was this good with the glove? JP Ricciardi, apparently. If there's a team that should pay market rate for a huge bat at DH, it's the Blue Jays. I'm guessing it won't be Adam Dunn, however.
6. Mike A Aviles (25 off, 10 def, 35 tot) -- Not only did Aviles play like one of the best shortstops in the majors, the upgrade from Tony Pena Jr. to him was worth a full five wins. There are two main worries about Aviles in 2009. One, he's old to have just made his MLB debut. Two, his .325/.354/.480 line was extremely batting-average-driven.
5. Cristian Guzman (27 off, 9 def, 36 tot) -- I honestly don't know what to say, so I'll go with a hearty congratulations. That four-year $16MM contract ended up not looking so bad.
4. J.J. Hardy (26 off, 13 def, 39 tot) -- There have been rumors floating around about trading Hardy or Prince Fielder for Matt Cain. If I'm the Brewers, I pick Fielder. And that's as much a compliment to Hardy as it is a knock against Fielder.
3. Jimmy Rollins (30 off, 18 def, 48 tot) -- Rollins totaled 54 runs above replacement last year, and once you account for the drop in league-wide offense, that's nearly as valuable as his 2007 level of production. So why no MVP discussion this year? Well, there's that whole 20-20-20-20 thing. Plus, Rollins traded in some offensive production for defensive production, and we all know which one of those gets more attention.
2. Jose Reyes (51 off, 1 def, 52 tot) -- If Reyes can revert back to 2006 form in the field, that will help the Mets win the NL East next year as much as upgrading their left field situation. Isn't it funny how this guy has gone from exciting and overrated to blah and underrated? I'm actually now a fan.
1. Hanley Ramirez (69 off, 10 def, 79 tot) -- Wow, just wow. The numbers and everyone's eyes all agree that HanRam took gigantic steps forward in the field this year. If that new level of performance is here to stay, there's nobody in baseball I'd want on my team more, other than Albert Pujols.
Here are the top twenty-five most productive shortstops in 2008:
| Rank | Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | 69 | 7 | 3 | 79 |
| 2 | Jose Reyes | 51 | 7 | -7 | 52 |
| 3 | Jimmy Rollins | 30 | 6 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | J.J. Hardy | 26 | 7 | 6 | 39 |
| 5 | Cristian Guzman | 27 | 6 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mike A Aviles | 25 | 4 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Marco Scutaro | 11 | 3 | 21 | 35 |
| 8 | Yunel Escobar | 16 | 6 | 9 | 30 |
| 9 | Derek Jeter | 26 | 7 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Stephen Drew | 29 | 7 | -8 | 28 |
| 11 | Jhonny Peralta | 28 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Jerry Hairston | 23 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 13 | Rafael Furcal | 21 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| 14 | Orlando Cabrera | 13 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| 15 | Miguel Tejada | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 |
| 16 | Ryan S Theriot | 19 | 7 | -5 | 20 |
| 17 | Cesar Izturis | 0 | 5 | 15 | 20 |
| 18 | Michael Young | 17 | 7 | -4 | 20 |
| 19 | Erick J Aybar | 9 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 20 | Jason A Bartlett | 10 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Jed Lowrie | 6 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 22 | Maicer E Izturis | 6 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 23 | Nick Punto | 11 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 24 | Ben T Zobrist | 14 | 1 | -4 | 12 |
| 25 | Jack Wilson | -1 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
And the least productive shortstops in 2008:
| Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
| Tony F Pena | -22 | 3 | 2 | -17 |
| Juan Castro | -11 | 2 | -4 | -12 |
| Jeff S Keppinger | -4 | 5 | -10 | -9 |
| Brian J Bixler | -10 | 1 | 0 | -8 |
| Luis Rivas | -8 | 2 | -1 | -8 |
| Ivan G Ochoa | -8 | 1 | -1 | -8 |
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Note to Billy Beane: we want Scutaro back
kick Bobby Crosby to the curb, NOW!
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
How many would buy that Scutaro was 20 runs above replacement in the field?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
How many would know what "above replacement" meant?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Point being: he's projected for a -1 by Chone in 2009.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
welcome to the vagaries of defensive metrics, eh.
i don’t watch that many jays games but i can’t say i’ve been that impressed with scutaro’s defense. this one is right up there with learning that willie harris suddenly is like the best defender in all of baseball. he sure fooled us for four years.
"i wasn't sure who to vote for. but then his grandmother died. they're pulling out all the stops to get those undecided voters. damn, these guys are fucking good."
good thing JRE isn't here
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
jre?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
you don't know him. don't worry about it.
"i wasn't sure who to vote for. but then his grandmother died. they're pulling out all the stops to get those undecided voters. damn, these guys are fucking good."
SSSer
famous in our parts for his complete distrust of D stats
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
and utter disdain for orlando cabrera, as well. he'd hate this whole thing.
"i wasn't sure who to vote for. but then his grandmother died. they're pulling out all the stops to get those undecided voters. damn, these guys are fucking good."
Isn't that 20 runs above average in the field?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
is it? i was guessing...
that seems even more unlikely.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
yeah... the offensive numbers are above replacement
but replacement players are assumed to be league average when it comes to defense. At least that’s what I remember reading.
Scutaro = the new Adam Everett out of nowhere.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
that's what i remember too re: defense.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Everett was posting fielding numbers twice that of Scutaro
according to some metrics during his peak. Like on the order of 50 runs with the glove. Scutaro has a way to go before becoming the next Everett.
Hyperbolic humor
obviously
Then again, Everett would have a long way to go before posting a .691 OPS in the AL, like Scutaro did. So touche, I guess
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Of course Scutaro played less than half a season's worth of games at SS to get that +21 number.
Had he played a full slate at SS he might have approached Everettian heights.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
Great point.
Scutaro played about 350 innings each at 2B and 3B, with about 500 at SS. Here are his fielding totals relative to each position:
2B: +2
3B: +11
SS: +6
(and a +1 in some time at 1B)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Another nice pickup by J. P. Ricciardi
I wish he would decide whether he’s smart or not
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
O-Cab's got blue Jays, 3/20 written all over him
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
True
J. P. follows his own drummer, though. He likes getting guys too soon or too late.
Interesting question for a lot of teams, but especially this years Jays: if they had signed Barry Bonds in the offseason, would they have made the playoffs?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe.
They were top five in the AL in BaseRuns (as were three other ALE teams though).
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
you think so?
they’ve got quite the glut of infielders.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Angel Sanchez is a John MacDonald clone
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
For us with defensive fetishes this is a very tantalizing thing to say.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
How does it feel if I rephrase it as "he's got the ceiling to be Tony Pena, Jr."
MacDonald is TPJ without this years bad BABIP luck — great fielder some years, but it comes out of nowhere, and not near good enough to play every day
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Tony Pena Jr. had a perfect FIP and ERA though.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
true that
The Bravest Way to select a shortstop
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Ha, I have "Scout's Honor", I haven't read it in full, but...
For all the mudslinging done towards Moneyball for its draft, the Braves’ draft features Scott Thorman and Blaine Boyer. It’s almost like no matter your method the draft is still a pretty big crapshoot after the first round.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
I've not read it, but I hear Dayton Moore features prominently
Notice how the team he put together over there has been just dominating the last three years… that’s what Royals fans can look forward to
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
It's been about a year since I touched it, so I can't tell you whether he's heavily mentioned or not.
Perhaps I’ll give it a quick read in the next few days.
It’s so odd that almost all of the former Braves AGM weren’t very good at GMing: Wren, LaMar, Taylor, and Moore is creeping towards that.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Not that odd
When Scheurholz was in KC, he’s the one who traded David Cone for Ed Hearn..
Kidding. Obviously, he was great. But think about it: how successful have the Braves really been since Billionaire Ted sold the team? Who’s the last stud position player prospect they really produced? Brian McCann is awesome, but show else?
When’s the last time they produced a great pitcher?
They’re living off the glory of the mid-1990s, and haven’t done anything special since then, other than get a bunch of mediocrities who sat at the feet of the King a bunch of jobs that are over their heads, from the looks of things.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, point taken
I still think that organization is overrated and living off the glory days. I mean, Chuck LaMar pretty much says it all.
Dayton Moore talks about “improving OBP” as if it’s something he’s just decided was important (and if that’s true, the Royals are truly screwed), and then trades for Mike Jacobs and picks up Miguel Olivo’s option…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
They seem to understand the whole "fielding matters" thing
Which is a good sign.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Ouch!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, is that about the Braves or the Royals?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
IIRC
wasn’t that one of the results (Hanley’s defensive numbers) that made Justin raise his eyebrows?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
i'm of the impression that we should take one year of D-metric
the way we take one year of batting average. BA is a skill, but it stabilizes after far more PA than a season can offer.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Yeah
I think the accepted idea is that at least three consecutive years of stats are needed.
Did Justin regress to the FSR on the defensive numbers this year?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
not to my knowledge, but Chone obviously did
since Justin came out in serious praise (as did Tango), I’ve been using the Chone numbers for true talent.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
I would
except that Chone had Ross Gload at -1. I can’t believe the fans are as smart as Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman, who probably (if they owned computers) would have Gload at about +16.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
His bat is still awesome.
But yeah, I’m not sold on Hanley being plus all of the sudden either.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Cantu +24!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Cantu fields like a penguin!
(my favorite BTB comment that I can recall)
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
never heard that one -- good stuff. But scary
over at RR, we (and by “we” I mean those of us who take defensive metrics seriously) are all holding our breath and hoping that Alex Gordon’s +4 from last year is closer to his true talent than his near-Cantu minus 14-18 (depending on who you go by) fro this year.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
the fact that he hasn't taken off is depressing
even despite the fact that i’ve got no royal love.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
His peripherals were good
great walk rate. Hittracker suggests a bit of bad luck. His main offensive problem is actually lefties. He hit RHPs well this year. Disaster against LHPs, although he improved in the second half. .888 OPS after the break, whatever that’s worth.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I will cream myself when HitFX comes out
mmmm…bat plane modeling…
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Honestly
I really don’t know what HitFX will do… Seriously. Is it just going to tell us which pitches from which pitchers each batter hits for GBs/liners/Flies, etc? When is it coming?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
We all ready know which pitch.
HitFx, which I assume will be public, is going to tell us how hard the ball was hit, amongst other things.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Hit Trackers says that Gordon's HRs, at least
were hit REALLY HARD
yay
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
how hard, what trajectory, what location
Yeah, nothing you can do with that.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
???
Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not. I was just being hopeful, but wryly so. That’s another half-done post I have saved, one on who was lucky/unlucky with the home runs on the Royals
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
epically bad to very good?
do we have any other jumps like that that we buy?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Not that I know of.
Although Sky/Justin would know better.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
That we buy? Huh, sounds like an interesting study.
Justin’s fielding spreadsheet will auto-fill with data, so maybe I could go back over a few years and see which players showed the largest single-year jumps/declines and then see which ones “stuck”.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
wouldn't take that long
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
you have a to do list?
you must not be a college student.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
I actually thikn Jeter's -4 from -28 was pretty impressive
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
You're not sold on Hanley despite what the numbers say, but you are sold Alexei being a poor defender despite what the scouts say?
How do we evaluate numbers?
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
One point is that we have additional years of data for Hanley that thinks he's well below average
But “sold” is a little strong of a position to have on Alexei, sure.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
At Royals Review
we’re all pretty realistic about Avilanche. See the impressive study of KC BABIP rates by ZeppelinDZ, as well as his later, shorter post about Aviles and PrOPS (yes, I’m aware that The Book crowed has raised important objections to PrOPS). Aviles may have put up superstar numbers (if he had played a whole season at that rate this year), but we’re not expecting anything like a repeat.
Nonetheless, I think it’s important to note that
1) Justin’s numbers only reflect 441 PAs from Aviles — even a considerable regression offensively to “just” average is still a a huge improvement over TPJ, etc., and especially at league minimum; and more importantly
2) Aviles defense was much better than expected (albeit in a small sample size). Quick, back of the envelope calculations show that even if Aviles regresses all the way down to around a .710 OPS (his PrOPS was .737) and slightly belowaverage defense, he’s still around a league average shortstop. We’ll see. It’s nice to have someone who’s actually quite likely to be worth more than they’re paid (Cf. Guillen, Jose; Gload, Ross; perhaps Jacobs, Mike)
The Jeter-bashing thing has gotten a bit old. “Ooooo… We’re so much smarter than everyone else. That is not Pepsi, that is Diet Mr. Pibb…” He sucks in the field, we get it. Still, I have to say I was just as surprised by Jeter being as “high” as -4 as I was by Hanley Ramirez being positive. So I guess I shouldn’t turn in my Star Trek utility belt yet.
+10 on Fielder vs. Hardy… Fielder looks like another guy (along with Mike Jacobs) who might need fielding lessons from Billy Butler.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
I'm surprised by Aviles, after his hot start I figured he'd die down. His recent minor league #s never suggested he'd be this good.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
yeah...
I fell pretty safe saying he’ll never be near this good again. I’m sure, since he’s a guy from the previous admin, that DMGM will give him half the leash he gave TPJ and Ross Gload
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
i think you guys should probably be using some kind of regression for the D numbers
or just substitute Chone’s projection + age adjustment? whatever, you’re using someone else’s numbers for a reason and i imagine you guys don’t think this is the final word.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
I think that's important for true talent
but if they’re measuring last years actual peformance, I think the way Justin did it is fine. Jeter may not “really” be a -4 fielder, but if he pulled it off one year, that’s what these numbers are meant to reflect.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
the "if" is the problem
if we could measure D better, we could assume Jeter did in fact manage a -4. i’m under the impression that we can’t, even using BIS and STATS combined.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
I also don't think Aviles is a 122 OPS+ hitter, but we're using unregressed offensive numbers
I totally agree that one year of fielding data is more suspect than one year of hitting data (although it obviously depends which metrics you’re using). So I feel less confident in the fielding data, but hey, that’s what we have. Some regression might be appropriate, I suppose.
I hope people aren’t taking these numbers and basing 2009 decisions off of them. All performance deserves a proper projection.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Regression of even 50% towards average wouldn't change all that much, by the way
“Only” a ten-run swing between players rated +10 and -10. I guess the guys at +20 or -20 would move a bunch of spots. And guys like HanRam, Jeter, and Hudson (more average than in the past) wouldn’t be any different.
Regressing towards career norms might be better. I see these ratings as interesting retrospective on the 2008 season, and not really worth looking at once we have good 2009 projections.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Jed Lowrie behind Bartlett
I don’t buy it. Jed is God, and everyone knows it.
Even so, Marco Scutaro ahead of Jeter? I never thought I’d see that happening, regardless of how bad Jeter is with the glove. His batting sort of made up for that.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
But when the bat goes...
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
But it was just too many seasons waiting for his batting to take a ‘hit’ (no pun intended). After 2006, I just thought he could carry that on. He can’t, it seems. Thank God.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Don't get too confident
He picked it up in the second half.
if they were smart, the Yankees would look into Furcal and move Jeter to the OF. They won’t of course.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, if they didn't move Jeter when A-Rod came around
They’ll never do it. Unless Derek asks for it.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Nice sig by the way
fight the power
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
Love the song.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 4, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
how many runs would he be worth as a corner OF?
i doubt he could be better than average. he’s old and never had the range for short or second. i’m thinking he posts in the neighborhood of about 20 wins above average offense. apply the position penalty and he’s pretty shortly in the 1 win above average category.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
3-3.5 WAR is as good or better than he did this year
when he seemingly had a career year in the field
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
i dn, it all seems kind of convoluted to me.
finding a new shortstop is hard.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Cano for Scutaro
+ 5/86 for O-Dog
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry. Joke
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yup, and the Yankees seem to have enough corner outfielders
Nady
Damon (unless they wise up and put him in center)
Matsui (might DH depending where Posada/Tex end up playing)
Furcal wouldn’t be a bad signing, though, probably.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I think Matsui is slated to be the DH
and can Damon still handle CF? He was above average last year for Justin, slightly below (in both CF and LF) this year. That changes things.
They’re assuming Posada at C
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
He's probably -5 runs in center
Which hurts, surely, but his bat makes him a better overall player than Melky or Gardner.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
yeah
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Also
my (perhaps faulty) impression is that his fielding problems have to do with his lateral range, not his speed
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
run a speed score on him?
that apparently correlates really well with OF defense (unsurprisingly).
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
Really?
seriously, I don’t know much about this stuff. If he could play even slightly below average CF, that would be a really great move for the Yankees.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, but he can't to my knowledge.
i really doubt he can, anyway.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
maybe not
then again, Bryan Braun went from being a -20 3B to a +5 LF
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
but i'm pretty sure that whatever it is that prevents him from rapidly moving toward the baseball
will impede him in the outfield too.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
I dunno
I guess I figure the quick side-to-side movements of a SS are different from speed need to make read in the OF, but who knows. Overall (OF + DF), he might as good or better than Abreu in RF.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I tend to agree that switching positions is often overrated
Ryan Braun and other specific examples notwithstanding.
But Jeter has always seemed to track down flyballs pretty well.
I’m proud that BtB has a full-fledged “where should Derek Jeter play” debate. Can’t be long until we start ripping on Joe Morgan or making sure people understand Bille Beane didn’t actually write Moneyball.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Wow, I'm definitely on the wrong side of everything today
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Miguel Tejada is the 4th best defensive shortstop in the game?
I thought most people were saying that he should be moved to third base because he is getting to heavy and slow to play short everyday. I never knew him as being a phenomenal shortstop even when he was younger. Does anyone have an explanation for his +10?
B-12 injections
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Fluke? Hard work? Statistical anomaly? There are plenty, although I don't know which one is most accurate.
I thought he was pretty decent in the field back in the day, though, no?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Miguel Tejada UZR
2003: -9
2004: +8
2005: -5
2006: -3
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Slow infield at Minute Maid?
Years of crappy Oriole pitching launching a constant stream of unfieldable rockets to SS?
Rapid progress due to rapid aging?
Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.
Good point...
Has anyone done a statistical analysis that looks at the speed of infields around the league. I know according the announcers and baseball insiders that some infields (Texas) are significantly faster than others (Wrigley) but have not seen a stat that attempts to adjust defensive metrics accordingly. Especially the simple defensive metrics like Range factor.
I haven't seen anything like this done.
There’s talk of the Coors infield being pretty long, helping Tulo and others…
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Check out Furcal's numbers.
That was, what, 100 ab’s?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Just for laughs:
Where’s Lugo? Too far off the charts?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
2.6 runs above replacement
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 4, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
How is Yuniesky Betancourt not on the least productive list?
He’s a 19 on the +/ and pretty worthless with the stick. A lot of us in the NW regard him as the worst all around starting shortstop in baseball.
two dashes create a strikethrough of what's between them. sorry.
BIS zone rating has him at -20 runs at shortstop, but STATS zone rating only has him at -4 runs. so that’s an average of -12. with +7ish runs for playing SS, he doesn’t quite crack the bottom of the list overall. still not a good season, though.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Where's Bobby Crosby?
I was under the impression he was horrible in the field as well as at the plate this year…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Crosby
-2 RAR, -3 field, +7 position, +2 total
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I look forward to watching him go to the Royals for Billy Butler
that is, if DMGM can’t pull of a trade for Yuniesky Betancourt
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 5, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
2 runs above replacement?
Pathetic, yet, somehow, predictable.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Bartlett's fielding
You have the Tampa sportswriter-declared (right?) “MVP of the Rays” at a 0 for fielding, this after praise was heaped upon him for helping their pitching improve to some of the best in the AL in 08. I didn’t watch him all that much but am just surprised to see that you have him at 0. At a minimum, he has amazing range. Perhaps he had a bad defensive year in spite of the Rays great pitching? Just looking for an explanation.
I think Dewan's had him at "-1"
the best explanation is that he simply didn’t play exceptional defense this year.
Of course, another obvious sub-explanation is that BBWAA (??) members in general are, um, less that enlightened. Good thing they aren’t paid to know about baseball or anything.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 5, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
It was my understanding
that all, or at least many, of the stat-heads out there had Bartlett as a + fielder around the time of the trade to TB too, though. I mean, I remember people talking about how the change from Harris to Bartlett would do wonders for the TB pitching staff. And, well, it kinda looks like it did, along with much improved/already good OF, 3B, and 1B defense. Of course, the pitching itself improved in Tampa also.
Point is, I remember Bartlett being viewed (by the traditional and modern statsy methods) as a great defensive SS, mostly due to his exceptional range, who was not properly valued as such in MIN when traded. Sorry I don’t have anything to back it up. I’m sure Sky can dig something up.
Oh, I agree
that he was better in previous years, and that he was certainly on overall upgrade from Harris. Defense matters… he just wasn’t a whiz this year. Still a big improvement, though.
I guess we were in agreement… just arguing different points.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Bartlett suffered a knee injury about halfway through the season.
I’m not positive, but I think that plays into his numbers being down from his traditional good ranks.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, Bartlett's statgeeky reputation is as a very good defensive shortstop.
Maybe he had a down year this year or maybe the data just missed on him. Either way, his projection for 2009 is +9 runs over a full season.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
And no matter what, the Rays' chapter of the BBWAA is dumb.
I get that Bartlett is a symbol of how the Rays improved from 2007 to 2008, but that’s, well, pretty irrelevant to the award.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I think Carlos Pena or Akinori Iwamura would be better symbols anyway
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
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