2008 P Defense By PMR

Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMRRAA | 3B: PMRRAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA | C: PMR / RAA | P: PMR / RAA

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions.  PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo).  More information can be found in this post.

This entry, we look at pitchers - first on the team level and then for individuals.

 

Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Outs Delta Runs Delta Runs / 4000 RAA / 4000
Blue Jays 4215 181 161.32 19.68 14.76 14.01 14.1
Tigers 4536 187 171.99 15.01 11.2575 9.93 10.02
Padres 4419 217 202.55 14.45 10.8375 9.81 9.9
Royals 4413 170 161.9 8.1 6.075 5.51 5.6
Dodgers 4265 217 209.44 7.56 5.67 5.32 5.41
Mets 4335 200 192.92 7.08 5.31 4.9 4.99
Nationals 4417 193 186.24 6.76 5.07 4.59 4.68
Mariners 4512 161 154.23 6.77 5.0775 4.5 4.59
Twins 4607 190 183.22 6.78 5.085 4.42 4.51
Phillies 4396 198 193.35 4.65 3.4875 3.17 3.26
Cubs 4156 179 174.74 4.26 3.195 3.08 3.17
Rockies 4535 204 201.22 2.78 2.085 1.84 1.93
Braves 4383 213 211.93 1.07 0.8025 0.73 0.82
Cardinals 4597 205 203.96 1.04 0.78 0.68 0.77
Indians 4513 169 168.95 0.05 0.0375 0.03 0.12
Astros 4292 159 160.96 -1.96 -1.47 -1.37 -1.28
Marlins 4338 162 164.14 -2.14 -1.605 -1.48 -1.39
Red Sox 4232 154 156.88 -2.88 -2.16 -2.04 -1.95
Diamondbacks 4224 193 196.62 -3.62 -2.715 -2.57 -2.48
Pirates 4683 211 215.78 -4.78 -3.585 -3.06 -2.97
White Sox 4409 190 194.51 -4.51 -3.3825 -3.07 -2.98
Rangers 4667 178 184.54 -6.54 -4.905 -4.2 -4.11
Angels 4374 148 154.21 -6.21 -4.6575 -4.26 -4.17
Orioles 4540 152 158.73 -6.73 -5.0475 -4.45 -4.36
Reds 4299 174 181.34 -7.34 -5.505 -5.12 -5.03
Athletics 4285 142 149.52 -7.52 -5.64 -5.26 -5.17
Yankees 4349 186 194.41 -8.41 -6.3075 -5.8 -5.71
Rays 4264 114 124.63 -10.63 -7.9725 -7.48 -7.39
Giants 4232 142 156.07 -14.07 -10.5525 -9.97 -9.88
Brewers 4354 183 205.85 -22.85 -17.1375 -15.74 -15.65

 

Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Outs Delta Runs Delta Runs / 4000

RAA /

4000

Greg Maddux 649 59 39.59 19.41 14.5575 89.72 89.81
Kenny Rogers 598 56 38.39 17.61 13.2075 88.34 88.43
Jesse Litsch 569 39 24.2 14.8 11.1 78.03 78.12
Felix Hernandez 577 32 24.02 7.98 5.985 41.49 41.58
Livan Hernandez 674 31 22.4 8.6 6.45 38.28 38.37
Javier Vazquez 598 29 21.39 7.61 5.7075 38.18 38.27
Kyle Kendrick 560 32 26.17 5.83 4.3725 31.23 31.32
Jon Garland 684 31 24.42 6.58 4.935 28.86 28.95
Gil Meche 611 28 22.5 5.5 4.125 27 27.09
Jeremy Guthrie 587 23 17.74 5.26 3.945 26.88 26.97
Jason Marquis 554 35 30.06 4.94 3.705 26.75 26.84
Brandon Webb 671 54 48.1 5.9 4.425 26.38 26.47
Ryan Dempster 572 36 31.12 4.88 3.66 25.59 25.68
Cole Hamels 635 35 29.59 5.41 4.0575 25.56 25.65
Joel Pineiro 505 28 23.71 4.29 3.2175 25.49 25.58
Bronson Arroyo 605 32 26.95 5.05 3.7875 25.04 25.13
Justin Verlander 598 23 18.21 4.79 3.5925 24.03 24.12
Zack Greinke 587 26 21.34 4.66 3.495 23.82 23.91
Joe Saunders 623 31 27.14 3.86 2.895 18.59 18.68
Roy Oswalt 617 31 27.46 3.54 2.655 17.21 17.3
Tim Redding 572 22 18.86 3.14 2.355 16.47 16.56
Glen Perkins 520 23 20.25 2.75 2.0625 15.87 15.96
Aaron Cook 725 44 40.31 3.69 2.7675 15.27 15.36
Tim Wakefield 539 16 13.55 2.45 1.8375 13.64 13.73
Vicente Padilla 524 20 17.7 2.3 1.725 13.17 13.26
Jair Jurrjens 589 37 34.69 2.31 1.7325 11.77 11.86
Jeff Suppan 589 28 25.91 2.09 1.5675 10.65 10.74
Zach Duke 669 37 35.21 1.79 1.3425 8.03 8.12
Gavin Floyd 625 26 24.44 1.56 1.17 7.49 7.58
Scott Olsen 640 20 18.55 1.45 1.0875 6.8 6.89
Hiroki Kuroda 598 39 37.92 1.08 0.81 5.42 5.51
Paul Maholm 621 31 29.9 1.1 0.825 5.31 5.4
Oliver Perez 527 17 16.28 0.72 0.54 4.1 4.19
Matt Cain 630 27 26.14 0.86 0.645 4.1 4.19
Barry Zito 576 20 19.28 0.72 0.54 3.75 3.84
Andy Sonnanstine 632 20 19.44 0.56 0.42 2.66 2.75
Jon Lester 632 21 20.46 0.54 0.405 2.56 2.65
Kevin Millwood 569 25 24.56 0.44 0.33 2.32 2.41
Greg Smith 578 16 15.75 0.25 0.1875 1.3 1.39
Brett Myers 554 23 22.85 0.15 0.1125 0.81 0.9
Ted Lilly 574 15 15.03 -0.03 -0.0225 -0.16 -0.07
Brian Bannister 603 30 30.11 -0.11 -0.0825 -0.55 -0.46
Jamie Moyer 625 20 20.19 -0.19 -0.1425 -0.91 -0.82
John Danks 569 24 24.25 -0.25 -0.1875 -1.32 -1.23
Jarrod Washburn 512 20 20.39 -0.39 -0.2925 -2.29 -2.2
Paul Byrd 608 17 17.52 -0.52 -0.39 -2.57 -2.48
Edinson Volquez 511 24 24.49 -0.49 -0.3675 -2.88 -2.79
Mike Pelfrey 652 29 29.63 -0.63 -0.4725 -2.9 -2.81
CC Sabathia 687 27 27.67 -0.67 -0.5025 -2.93 -2.84
Kyle Lohse 650 30 30.67 -0.67 -0.5025 -3.09 -3
Ubaldo Jimenez 572 35 35.69 -0.69 -0.5175 -3.62 -3.53
Roy Halladay 713 31 32.28 -1.28 -0.96 -5.39 -5.3
Dana Eveland 519 17 17.94 -0.94 -0.705 -5.43 -5.34
Chad Billingsley 556 21 22.07 -1.07 -0.8025 -5.77 -5.68
Joe Blanton 652 25 26.28 -1.28 -0.96 -5.89 -5.8
Armando Galarraga 525 13 14.04 -1.04 -0.78 -5.94 -5.85
Jered Weaver 513 10 11.02 -1.02 -0.765 -5.96 -5.87
Odalis Perez 507 23 24.23 -1.23 -0.9225 -7.28 -7.19
Derek Lowe 644 39 40.83 -1.83 -1.3725 -8.52 -8.43
John Lannan 560 29 30.68 -1.68 -1.26 -9 -8.91
Todd Wellemeyer 579 15 16.95 -1.95 -1.4625 -10.1 -10.01
Brandon Backe 512 16 18.01 -2.01 -1.5075 -11.78 -11.69
Johan Santana 668 30 32.68 -2.68 -2.01 -12.04 -11.95
Mike Mussina 613 28 30.47 -2.47 -1.8525 -12.09 -12
Edwin Jackson 582 12 14.35 -2.35 -1.7625 -12.11 -12.02
Ian Snell 522 21 23.11 -2.11 -1.5825 -12.13 -12.04
Carlos Silva 564 14 16.4 -2.4 -1.8 -12.77 -12.68
James Shields 641 19 21.96 -2.96 -2.22 -13.85 -13.76
Matt Garza 560 15 17.82 -2.82 -2.115 -15.11 -15.02
Nick Blackburn 658 24 27.47 -3.47 -2.6025 -15.82 -15.73
Mark Buehrle 699 27 31.03 -4.03 -3.0225 -17.3 -17.21
Carlos Zambrano 570 23 26.3 -3.3 -2.475 -17.37 -17.28
A.J. Burnett 613 24 27.68 -3.68 -2.76 -18.01 -17.92
Ricky Nolasco 606 17 21.08 -4.08 -3.06 -20.2 -20.11
Ervin Santana 605 18 22.09 -4.09 -3.0675 -20.28 -20.19
Dan Haren 610 24 28.16 -4.16 -3.12 -20.46 -20.37
Brian Moehler 509 12 15.68 -3.68 -2.76 -21.69 -21.6
Johnny Cueto 500 18 21.67 -3.67 -2.7525 -22.02 -21.93
Tim Lincecum 562 17 21.44 -4.44 -3.33 -23.7 -23.61
Aaron Harang 552 13 17.37 -4.37 -3.2775 -23.75 -23.66
Braden Looper 653 20 25.71 -5.71 -4.2825 -26.23 -26.14
Nate Robertson 563 20 24.99 -4.99 -3.7425 -26.59 -26.5
Randy Johnson 531 12 16.86 -4.86 -3.645 -27.46 -27.37
Randy Wolf 557 25 31.51 -6.51 -4.8825 -35.06 -34.97
David Bush 567 18 24.87 -6.87 -5.1525 -36.35 -36.26
Daniel Cabrera 594 11 18.98 -7.98 -5.985 -40.3 -40.21
Andy Pettitte 641 22 30.94 -8.94 -6.705 -41.84 -41.75
Cliff Lee 670 17 28.39 -11.39 -8.5425 -51 -50.91
Ben Sheets 589 14 24.34 -10.34 -7.755 -52.67 -52.58

Of course these sample sizes are so small as to be meaningless.  And don't get too caught up in the runs/4000 numbers, since pitchers clearly aren't out there every day of the season.

Here's where the Blue Jays gain a lot of their defensive advantage - from the pitchers themselves. And the Brewers have a bunch of pretty horrendous fielding pitchers - over 5 runs worse than the next lowest team.

No real suprises in the individual ratings.  Maddux and Rogers are generally considered some of the better fielding pitchers.  I'm a little surprised Livan Hernandez is that highly rated since he's put on some weight (unless he's dropped it the last few years). 

Towards the bottom of the list, Mr. AL Cy Young might have been even better had he fielded his position better.  To a lesser extent the same is true for the NL winner.

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