2008 P Defense By PMR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 25, 2008 8:00 AM EST in Positional Reviews

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.

This entry, we look at pitchers - first on the team level and then for individuals.

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Blue Jays	4215	181	161.32	19.68	14.76	14.01	14.1
Tigers	4536	187	171.99	15.01	11.2575	9.93	10.02
Padres	4419	217	202.55	14.45	10.8375	9.81	9.9
Royals	4413	170	161.9	8.1	6.075	5.51	5.6
Dodgers	4265	217	209.44	7.56	5.67	5.32	5.41
Mets	4335	200	192.92	7.08	5.31	4.9	4.99
Nationals	4417	193	186.24	6.76	5.07	4.59	4.68
Mariners	4512	161	154.23	6.77	5.0775	4.5	4.59
Twins	4607	190	183.22	6.78	5.085	4.42	4.51
Phillies	4396	198	193.35	4.65	3.4875	3.17	3.26
Cubs	4156	179	174.74	4.26	3.195	3.08	3.17
Rockies	4535	204	201.22	2.78	2.085	1.84	1.93
Braves	4383	213	211.93	1.07	0.8025	0.73	0.82
Cardinals	4597	205	203.96	1.04	0.78	0.68	0.77
Indians	4513	169	168.95	0.05	0.0375	0.03	0.12
Astros	4292	159	160.96	-1.96	-1.47	-1.37	-1.28
Marlins	4338	162	164.14	-2.14	-1.605	-1.48	-1.39
Red Sox	4232	154	156.88	-2.88	-2.16	-2.04	-1.95
Diamondbacks	4224	193	196.62	-3.62	-2.715	-2.57	-2.48
Pirates	4683	211	215.78	-4.78	-3.585	-3.06	-2.97
White Sox	4409	190	194.51	-4.51	-3.3825	-3.07	-2.98
Rangers	4667	178	184.54	-6.54	-4.905	-4.2	-4.11
Angels	4374	148	154.21	-6.21	-4.6575	-4.26	-4.17
Orioles	4540	152	158.73	-6.73	-5.0475	-4.45	-4.36
Reds	4299	174	181.34	-7.34	-5.505	-5.12	-5.03
Athletics	4285	142	149.52	-7.52	-5.64	-5.26	-5.17
Yankees	4349	186	194.41	-8.41	-6.3075	-5.8	-5.71
Rays	4264	114	124.63	-10.63	-7.9725	-7.48	-7.39
Giants	4232	142	156.07	-14.07	-10.5525	-9.97	-9.88
Brewers	4354	183	205.85	-22.85	-17.1375	-15.74	-15.65

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Greg Maddux	649	59	39.59	19.41	14.5575	89.72	89.81
Kenny Rogers	598	56	38.39	17.61	13.2075	88.34	88.43
Jesse Litsch	569	39	24.2	14.8	11.1	78.03	78.12
Felix Hernandez	577	32	24.02	7.98	5.985	41.49	41.58
Livan Hernandez	674	31	22.4	8.6	6.45	38.28	38.37
Javier Vazquez	598	29	21.39	7.61	5.7075	38.18	38.27
Kyle Kendrick	560	32	26.17	5.83	4.3725	31.23	31.32
Jon Garland	684	31	24.42	6.58	4.935	28.86	28.95
Gil Meche	611	28	22.5	5.5	4.125	27	27.09
Jeremy Guthrie	587	23	17.74	5.26	3.945	26.88	26.97
Jason Marquis	554	35	30.06	4.94	3.705	26.75	26.84
Brandon Webb	671	54	48.1	5.9	4.425	26.38	26.47
Ryan Dempster	572	36	31.12	4.88	3.66	25.59	25.68
Cole Hamels	635	35	29.59	5.41	4.0575	25.56	25.65
Joel Pineiro	505	28	23.71	4.29	3.2175	25.49	25.58
Bronson Arroyo	605	32	26.95	5.05	3.7875	25.04	25.13
Justin Verlander	598	23	18.21	4.79	3.5925	24.03	24.12
Zack Greinke	587	26	21.34	4.66	3.495	23.82	23.91
Joe Saunders	623	31	27.14	3.86	2.895	18.59	18.68
Roy Oswalt	617	31	27.46	3.54	2.655	17.21	17.3
Tim Redding	572	22	18.86	3.14	2.355	16.47	16.56
Glen Perkins	520	23	20.25	2.75	2.0625	15.87	15.96
Aaron Cook	725	44	40.31	3.69	2.7675	15.27	15.36
Tim Wakefield	539	16	13.55	2.45	1.8375	13.64	13.73
Vicente Padilla	524	20	17.7	2.3	1.725	13.17	13.26
Jair Jurrjens	589	37	34.69	2.31	1.7325	11.77	11.86
Jeff Suppan	589	28	25.91	2.09	1.5675	10.65	10.74
Zach Duke	669	37	35.21	1.79	1.3425	8.03	8.12
Gavin Floyd	625	26	24.44	1.56	1.17	7.49	7.58
Scott Olsen	640	20	18.55	1.45	1.0875	6.8	6.89
Hiroki Kuroda	598	39	37.92	1.08	0.81	5.42	5.51
Paul Maholm	621	31	29.9	1.1	0.825	5.31	5.4
Oliver Perez	527	17	16.28	0.72	0.54	4.1	4.19
Matt Cain	630	27	26.14	0.86	0.645	4.1	4.19
Barry Zito	576	20	19.28	0.72	0.54	3.75	3.84
Andy Sonnanstine	632	20	19.44	0.56	0.42	2.66	2.75
Jon Lester	632	21	20.46	0.54	0.405	2.56	2.65
Kevin Millwood	569	25	24.56	0.44	0.33	2.32	2.41
Greg Smith	578	16	15.75	0.25	0.1875	1.3	1.39
Brett Myers	554	23	22.85	0.15	0.1125	0.81	0.9
Ted Lilly	574	15	15.03	-0.03	-0.0225	-0.16	-0.07
Brian Bannister	603	30	30.11	-0.11	-0.0825	-0.55	-0.46
Jamie Moyer	625	20	20.19	-0.19	-0.1425	-0.91	-0.82
John Danks	569	24	24.25	-0.25	-0.1875	-1.32	-1.23
Jarrod Washburn	512	20	20.39	-0.39	-0.2925	-2.29	-2.2
Paul Byrd	608	17	17.52	-0.52	-0.39	-2.57	-2.48
Edinson Volquez	511	24	24.49	-0.49	-0.3675	-2.88	-2.79
Mike Pelfrey	652	29	29.63	-0.63	-0.4725	-2.9	-2.81
CC Sabathia	687	27	27.67	-0.67	-0.5025	-2.93	-2.84
Kyle Lohse	650	30	30.67	-0.67	-0.5025	-3.09	-3
Ubaldo Jimenez	572	35	35.69	-0.69	-0.5175	-3.62	-3.53
Roy Halladay	713	31	32.28	-1.28	-0.96	-5.39	-5.3
Dana Eveland	519	17	17.94	-0.94	-0.705	-5.43	-5.34
Chad Billingsley	556	21	22.07	-1.07	-0.8025	-5.77	-5.68
Joe Blanton	652	25	26.28	-1.28	-0.96	-5.89	-5.8
Armando Galarraga	525	13	14.04	-1.04	-0.78	-5.94	-5.85
Jered Weaver	513	10	11.02	-1.02	-0.765	-5.96	-5.87
Odalis Perez	507	23	24.23	-1.23	-0.9225	-7.28	-7.19
Derek Lowe	644	39	40.83	-1.83	-1.3725	-8.52	-8.43
John Lannan	560	29	30.68	-1.68	-1.26	-9	-8.91
Todd Wellemeyer	579	15	16.95	-1.95	-1.4625	-10.1	-10.01
Brandon Backe	512	16	18.01	-2.01	-1.5075	-11.78	-11.69
Johan Santana	668	30	32.68	-2.68	-2.01	-12.04	-11.95
Mike Mussina	613	28	30.47	-2.47	-1.8525	-12.09	-12
Edwin Jackson	582	12	14.35	-2.35	-1.7625	-12.11	-12.02
Ian Snell	522	21	23.11	-2.11	-1.5825	-12.13	-12.04
Carlos Silva	564	14	16.4	-2.4	-1.8	-12.77	-12.68
James Shields	641	19	21.96	-2.96	-2.22	-13.85	-13.76
Matt Garza	560	15	17.82	-2.82	-2.115	-15.11	-15.02
Nick Blackburn	658	24	27.47	-3.47	-2.6025	-15.82	-15.73
Mark Buehrle	699	27	31.03	-4.03	-3.0225	-17.3	-17.21
Carlos Zambrano	570	23	26.3	-3.3	-2.475	-17.37	-17.28
A.J. Burnett	613	24	27.68	-3.68	-2.76	-18.01	-17.92
Ricky Nolasco	606	17	21.08	-4.08	-3.06	-20.2	-20.11
Ervin Santana	605	18	22.09	-4.09	-3.0675	-20.28	-20.19
Dan Haren	610	24	28.16	-4.16	-3.12	-20.46	-20.37
Brian Moehler	509	12	15.68	-3.68	-2.76	-21.69	-21.6
Johnny Cueto	500	18	21.67	-3.67	-2.7525	-22.02	-21.93
Tim Lincecum	562	17	21.44	-4.44	-3.33	-23.7	-23.61
Aaron Harang	552	13	17.37	-4.37	-3.2775	-23.75	-23.66
Braden Looper	653	20	25.71	-5.71	-4.2825	-26.23	-26.14
Nate Robertson	563	20	24.99	-4.99	-3.7425	-26.59	-26.5
Randy Johnson	531	12	16.86	-4.86	-3.645	-27.46	-27.37
Randy Wolf	557	25	31.51	-6.51	-4.8825	-35.06	-34.97
David Bush	567	18	24.87	-6.87	-5.1525	-36.35	-36.26
Daniel Cabrera	594	11	18.98	-7.98	-5.985	-40.3	-40.21
Andy Pettitte	641	22	30.94	-8.94	-6.705	-41.84	-41.75
Cliff Lee	670	17	28.39	-11.39	-8.5425	-51	-50.91
Ben Sheets	589	14	24.34	-10.34	-7.755	-52.67	-52.58

Of course these sample sizes are so small as to be meaningless. And don't get too caught up in the runs/4000 numbers, since pitchers clearly aren't out there every day of the season.

Here's where the Blue Jays gain a lot of their defensive advantage - from the pitchers themselves. And the Brewers have a bunch of pretty horrendous fielding pitchers - over 5 runs worse than the next lowest team.

No real suprises in the individual ratings. Maddux and Rogers are generally considered some of the better fielding pitchers. I'm a little surprised Livan Hernandez is that highly rated since he's put on some weight (unless he's dropped it the last few years).

Towards the bottom of the list, Mr. AL Cy Young might have been even better had he fielded his position better. To a lesser extent the same is true for the NL winner.

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