Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: The Boxing Bulletin for Boxing Fans!

Presented Without Comment

However, if you do vote, please explain why you chose that option. It's not a trick question either.

Poll
Is Mike Mussina a HOFer?
Yes
152 votes
No
113 votes

265 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 58 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I don't know.

But I’m looking forward to the truck load of arguments coming our way…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 6:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I voted yes, but I don’t have a great argument. JAWS, for whatever it’s worth, believes he’s worthy, and some of the metrics on B-R agree.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Nov 20, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I do think that he'll be underrated by the general public, because of all the inner-HOF pitchers that were his contemporaries

Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, Randy are all-time greats. If they were the standard by which entry to the HoF is judged, there would be like 10 pitchers in there.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 6:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What is there not to like about the guy?

I think the “traditionalist” view [wins (270), ERA, All-Star games (5), Gold Gloves(7), Cy Young consideration] is reasonably favorable to him. He’s fourth among active players in wins with Moyer being the only imminent threat to that total [and he’s 24 wins behind at 45 years old!]

For the more statistically inclined… Lots of top 10 finishes in SO9, BB9, SO/BB,WHIP, ERA+, WARP, etc…

And he’sbeen pretty durable… among the active leaders in GS, IP, CG, ShO…

by erosen on Nov 20, 2008 6:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Consistent solid performer

While he was never the best pitcher in baseball, he was always among them.

Also, I believe he should go in as an Oriole. Not only did he come up through their system, he had better numbers with them.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pge9a5vfulJhRARtiZSx8Vg&hl=en

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 20, 2008 6:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

And that, in short, is the reason I voted "No."

“Consistent, solid performer” is the “great personality” of baseball HoF arguments.

by klhoughton on Nov 21, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, he's got that too

But that has nothing to do with if he’s the guy you want taking the mound for your team. It’s all about fame here.

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 24, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hall of "FAME"

Just in case anyone goes uber-statty on us.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 6:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Just in case"?

I hope that’s all that happens here.

Does anyone really believe in the literal name of the Hall of Fame? If so, go look up Q ratings. I think the real question (at least the one I’m interested in) is how great of a pitcher did Mike Mussina prove himself to be over his career and how does he stack up to all other pitchers in history?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 7:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uber-statty meaning comparing miniscule stats with players from different eras.

I think it should be determined this way:
Right now there are 61 pitchers in the HOF. If he were up to vote this year, would you consider him one of the 62 best pitchers ever?

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's not a bad way to look at it, actually.

I hate when people use fringe players to argue FOR a player in the Hall. We all know there are some poor choices, and really should just ignore them. “Best 62” keeps the level of honor the same, but allows for us to decide who “should” be in.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn't matter with bs.uf15's method.

You’re not comparing Mussina against the 61 pitchers already in the HoF, you’re comparing him against the best 61 pitchers by whatever (hopefully) more intelligent method you come up with. We’re just using 61 because that’s how many happen to be in already.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 23, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I meant breaking down his pitching to the point of saying that he didn't get as many outs per batter or something.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's going to happen here.

Because that’s as good a way as any to decide who the 62 best pitchers in history are. If you don’t like the nitty-gritty stuff, you have two choices here:

  1. Present a logical argument why uber-analysis isn’t relevant.
  2. Go somewhere else. (This isn’t meant to be harsh, just pointing out that this is a website for people who like to do what you don’t want to do.)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like stats.

Just not when they get down to the point where you need a supercomputer and thousands of pages of stats to calculate them.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Arguements against uber-analysis:

From The Mike Mussina Hall of Fame Page: Stats:

7.11 K/9

(not all great pitchers throw a lot of strike outs)

Same site, but different topic:

1. [Mussina] pitched in the better hitting league [than Curt Schilling]
League ERA’s
1992: NL: 3.51, AL: 3.99; AL + 0.48
1993: NL: 3.97, AL: 4.47; AL + 0.50
1994: NL: 4.30, AL: 5.00; AL + 0.70
1995: NL: 4.23, AL: 4.77; AL + 0.44
1996: NL: 4.27, AL: 4.95; AL + 0.68
1997: NL: 4.25, AL: 4.39; AL + 0.14
1998: NL: 4.36, AL: 4.52; AL + 0.16
1999: NL: 4.80, AL: 4.68; NL + 0.12
2000: NL: 4.73, AL: 4.72; NL + 0.01
2001: NL: 4.67, AL: 4.48; NL + 0.19
2002: NL: 4.57, AL: 4.42; NL + 0.15
2003: NL: 4.67, AL: 4.39; NL + 0.28
Average: NL 4.36, AL: 4.56; AL + 0.20

So if a pitcher is crazy dominant, but played in a league a little worse, he’s worse?

There are many other sites that are comparing him with players from different eras or players who played and retired at different ages. And then there is this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#hof_standards

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So if a pitcher is crazy dominant, but played in a league a little worse, he’s worse?

Well, you need to adjust appropriately, yes.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Nov 20, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No

He only gets the nod because he plays for the Yankees

He just was never that good. see rafael palmeiro

by thoran85 on Nov 20, 2008 6:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

A few stats for you

Higest CYA: 2 (1999) he was 4th twice also
Last All Star Game: 1999
1, 20 win season
2, 19 win seasons
Wins: 270, 33rd best all time
Win %: .638, 38th best all time
Games started: 536, 32nd all time [wow i’m sure that didnt help the wins]

Adj. ERA +: 123, 85th all time

by thoran85 on Nov 20, 2008 7:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You think anyone cares?

Since when were HOFers decided using metrics? Here’s direct control: 3.58 K/BB ratio, less hits than innings pitched, while being 66th all-time for IP. Nothing’s really “directly controlled”, and it doesn’t become a big factor when determining a player of this level and track record’s value, anyway.

by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 20, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The point was

that I voted “yes”, was willing to represent this, and that there really is no factor that is “directly controlled” by a single player in the game.

by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 20, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Errors?

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If correctly called, that is.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, this isn't the hall of very good.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Nov 20, 2008 7:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

RJ, he used it.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No

Moose wasn’t quite there where, like Sky said, other pitchers in his generations were. He was pretty good, but never dominant.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 20, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

WHY?!?!?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You know

The more I look at his numbers, the more I realize he might have been quietly dominant.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 20, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I say yes

Looking at his 1995-2002 peak

1781 and 1/3 innings pitched, 1533/408 K/BB, 195 HR, and a 3.67 ERA compared to a league average of 4.62 over that same time. He notched less than 30 starts once over that period – 29 in 1998. This isn’t simply “very good”, this is clearly a great pitcher. I think that there is a great argument that Mussina was a better pitcher than Tom Glavine – anyone want to argue that Glavine isn’t a hall of famer? It’s easy to say that Moose was merely very good because of who he pitched with – Pedro, Maddux, Clemens, etc. Let’s not forget that those three are probably all top 10 all time pitchers. Moose has a good case for admission, even without all the milestones that the voters love.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 20, 2008 8:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think yes definately. Seventeen full seasons, was extremely durable (both in GS/season and IP/season), obviously had the preformance with a FIP of 3.57 for his career, 3.5:1 K/BB ratio, and for what it’s worth he exceeds BP.com’s JAWS standards comfortably. The combination of being a very good pitcher and being extremely durable makes him a hall of famer.

by 17843 on Nov 20, 2008 8:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm reminded that someone, and I think it may have been Stalin..

who said that “quantity has a quality all it’s own.” Having a very good season doesn’t make you a great pitcher, but a dozen of them put you in a very elite realm.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 20, 2008 8:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Correct quote source.

Although quoting commies might not make people see your point better.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you crazy?

Obviously, if he was a damn commie, he couldn’t have ever said anything intelligent or profound.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Nov 20, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just googled "pitcher runs above average all time"

And a BtB article by Cy Moron from 2006 was listed first.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2006/8/4/81713/24146

Using a .400 replacement-level baseline for pitchers (which might even be a bit low), Mussina ranks 54rd in WAR as of two years ago. If we give him three more for 2007 and 2008, he moves up about ten spots.

Personally, I prefer a much higher baseline for things like this to reward short-term greatness more than long-term competency, but it’s a start…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 20, 2008 9:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mussina for HOF

Pretty simple. Behind Maddux, he’s the 2nd best RHP of his generation.

by vendor71 on Nov 20, 2008 10:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Um... Pedro?

I’m not mentioning Clemens because he could possibly be considered not of Moose’s generation

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 20, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, so I voted no then ran some numbers

One of the complaints I hear is playoff numbers.
Regular Season FIP: 3.65
Playoff FIP: 3.601

Regular season K/BB: 3.58
Playoff K/BB: 4.39

This leads me to look a little further, and one reason people may think that he wasn’t as good in the playoffs is that his HR/IP went up compared to his regular season stats (thus the higher KK/BB ratio but approximately same FIP).

Players are measured, in part, by their post-season performances. He never dominated in the playoffs, and even though he was very good throughout his career, I don’t think he makes it into the level of “elite” pitchers.

Although, part of the perception comes from the other pitchers around him. Something is to be said about consistency too, and boy was he. last year was the first year he had over an ERA of 5 and he was pretty darned good throughout his career.

But I don’t think he’s elite or a HOF’er

see my sig

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Nov 21, 2008 12:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Definitely yes

He was remarkably consistent with his best years in his first full season and his last season. 270 wins is a very good number for this day and age. He might be the last person to come close to 300 wins.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2008 1:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

My initial reaction was no, but after really looking at his numbers I started to lean the other way.

I think Sky had it right here:

Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, Randy are all-time greats. If they were the standard by which entry to the HoF is judged, there would be like 10 pitchers in there.

And I think that a lot of people (and I was guilty of this at first myself) will say, “Well, he was never even the best pitcher in any given year, so how could he be HOF worthy?” So I’m not sure if he will actually get in. (For what it’s worth, he might have been the best pitcher in the AL in ‘01. Most people will see Clemens 20-3 record and dismiss the idea, but Mussina’s numbers are pretty ridiculous that year.)

He was significantly above average for 12 consecutive seasons. Between ‘97 and ’01 he was elite. As JI pointed out, his numbers are even more impressive when you look at them in the context of his home park and the era in which he played. I think he deserves to get in, but if he doesn’t I don’t think it would be a tremendous miscarriage of justice.

by acblue on Nov 21, 2008 4:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I dont know. Its a tough one. On one hand he pitched well but on the other hand when I think “elite” I dont think of Moose. I just think that once you get past the Pedro, Maddux, Clemens Johnson tier you run into a bunch of pitchers who are all very close.

Mussina, Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, even Kevin Brown.

No pitcher in history that has 100 more wins than losses is not in the HOF.

I ll say that he gets in. Not sure if I got to vote I would vote for him though.

by poodski on Nov 21, 2008 7:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Defensive Projections Take 2
The Baseball Nation Sim League has an opening
Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright