Cardinals Production Compared to Salary

This is an analysis that needs to be done for every team. I would recommend using Justin's stats instead of Win Shares, but computing Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and the expected free agent cost of that production is a great way to see which players' contracts are most valuable to an organization.

On the Cards, Albert Pujols was nearly as cost-effective as Ryan Ludwick, even though he's earning $16MM more. And Jason Isringhausen provides yet another data point for the argument against paying big bucks for a closer.

about 1 year ago Sky Kalkman 8 comments 0 recs |

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Thanks for the feedback, Sky

you’re probably right, too, about Justin’s stats being more precise than WSAB. I knew I didn’t feel real comfortable using WARP since I prefer THT’s defensive numbers to BP’s.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff Chuck.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 2, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WARP has another problem, too

It’s replacement-level is way too low. Using it, marginal wins aren’t worth nearly $4.4MM, maybe something like $3.5MM. And that will overrate bad players and underrate great players (10×4.4 > 12×3.5)

Also, maybe I’m misunderstanding you, but WSAB doesn’t use THT’s RZR metric. It uses Bill James’ Win Shares fielding metric, which is on par with BPro’s fielding stat. That is, it’s not that great.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you have any interest in taking this to a league-wide analysis, we'd love to publish it here on BtB

Combining salary data with WAR data would be a pain in the butt on a wide scale, though. Maybe just do it for free agents signed in the past two years?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I may take you up on that

and I wasn’t aware of that distinction at THT. I guess I just assumed they used RZR. That does change things b/c, you’re right, there is a big difference in replacement-level between THT and BP, and a big difference in fielding metrics between the two.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs