2008 1B Defense By PMR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 17, 2008 12:00 PM EST in Positional Reviews

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.

This entry, we look at first basemen - first on the team level and then for individuals.

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Cardinals	4597	363	330.17	32.83	26.1999815	22.8	22.63
Rays	4264	337	309.47	27.53	21.9703165	20.61	20.44
Astros	4292	352	334.44	17.56	14.013758	13.06	12.89
Angels	4374	348	332.57	15.43	12.3139115	11.26	11.09
Reds	4299	340	326.62	13.38	10.677909	9.94	9.77
Orioles	4540	330	317.28	12.72	10.151196	8.94	8.77
Giants	4232	306	298.46	7.54	6.017297	5.69	5.52
Braves	4383	309	301.26	7.74	6.176907	5.64	5.47
Mariners	4512	312	305.65	6.35	5.0676175	4.49	4.32
Padres	4419	314	308.13	5.87	4.6845535	4.24	4.07
Cubs	4156	339	334.4	4.6	3.67103	3.53	3.36
Athletics	4285	287	282.84	4.16	3.319888	3.1	2.93
Mets	4335	323	319.48	3.52	2.809136	2.59	2.42
Pirates	4683	293	290.12	2.88	2.298384	1.96	1.79
White Sox	4409	295	292.85	2.15	1.7158075	1.56	1.39
Red Sox	4232	300	298.07	1.93	1.5402365	1.46	1.29
Blue Jays	4215	346	345.24	0.76	0.606518	0.58	0.41
Rangers	4667	292	292.72	-0.72	-0.574596	-0.49	-0.66
Dodgers	4265	288	290	-2	-1.5961	-1.5	-1.67
Rockies	4535	311	318.74	-7.74	-6.176907	-5.45	-5.62
Tigers	4536	258	267.9	-9.9	-7.900695	-6.97	-7.14
Phillies	4396	335	345.93	-10.93	-8.7226865	-7.94	-8.11
Royals	4413	270	282.47	-12.47	-9.9516835	-9.02	-9.19
Brewers	4354	299	311.39	-12.39	-9.8878395	-9.08	-9.25
Nationals	4417	279	292.73	-13.73	-10.957227	-9.92	-10.09
Indians	4513	276	290.25	-14.25	-11.372213	-10.08	-10.25
Yankees	4349	270	286.22	-16.22	-12.944371	-11.91	-12.08
Marlins	4338	296	314.6	-18.6	-14.84373	-13.69	-13.86
Diamondbacks	4224	292	311.45	-19.45	-15.522073	-14.7	-14.87
Twins	4607	262	283.33	-21.33	-17.022407	-14.78	-14.95

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Albert Pujols	3833	310	275.7	34.3	27.373115	28.57	28.4
Carlos Pena	3428	272	250.39	21.61	17.2458605	20.12	19.95
Lance Berkman	3899	329	309.21	19.79	15.7934095	16.2	16.03
Mark Teixeira	4009	322	302.91	19.09	15.2347745	15.2	15.03
Rich Aurillia	1398	94	88.21	5.79	4.6207095	13.22	13.05
Joey Votto	3686	300	285.79	14.21	11.3402905	12.31	12.14
Kevin Millar	3607	264	250.96	13.04	10.406572	11.54	11.37
Todd Helton	2272	165	158.79	6.21	4.9558905	8.73	8.56
Casey Kotchman	3659	268	259.14	8.86	7.070723	7.73	7.56
Kevin Youkilis	2835	212	206.26	5.74	4.580807	6.46	6.29
Paul Konerko	3069	214	207.95	6.05	4.8282025	6.29	6.12
Derrek Lee	3848	322	315.59	6.41	5.1155005	5.32	5.15
Adrian Gonzalez	4302	307	300.33	6.67	5.3229935	4.95	4.78
Daric Barton	3322	211	207.92	3.08	2.457994	2.96	2.79
Carlos Delgado	4088	306	305.6	0.4	0.31922	0.31	0.14
Lyle Overbay	3919	330	329.98	0.02	0.015961	0.02	-0.15
James Loney	4023	267	267.57	-0.57	-0.4548885	-0.45	-0.62
Chris Davis	1295	81	81.23	-0.23	-0.1835515	-0.57	-0.74
Adam LaRoche	3647	224	226.6	-2.6	-2.07493	-2.28	-2.45
Miguel Cairo	1223	84	84.91	-0.91	-0.7262255	-2.38	-2.55
Aaron Boone	1040	61	62.74	-1.74	-1.388607	-5.34	-5.51
Richie Sexson	2103	133	137.24	-4.24	-3.383732	-6.44	-6.61
Nick Swisher	1340	81	84.91	-3.91	-3.1203755	-9.31	-9.48
Ross Gload	2727	163	171.75	-8.75	-6.9829375	-10.24	-10.41
Prince Fielder	4133	280	293.92	-13.92	-11.108856	-10.75	-10.92
Ryan Howard	4254	322	336.79	-14.79	-11.80316	-11.1	-11.27
Miguel Cabrera	3772	220	234.22	-14.22	-11.348271	-12.03	-12.2
Chad Tracy	1496	110	115.89	-5.89	-4.7005145	-12.57	-12.74
Ryan Garko	3323	198	211.16	-13.16	-10.502338	-12.64	-12.81
John Bowker	1607	104	110.6	-6.6	-5.26713	-13.11	-13.28
Jason Giambi	2795	164	177.51	-13.51	-10.781656	-15.43	-15.6
Sean Casey	1042	65	70.15	-5.15	-4.1099575	-15.78	-15.95
Conor Jackson	1696	109	117.4	-8.4	-6.70362	-15.81	-15.98
Justin Morneau	4289	242	264.41	-22.41	-17.884301	-16.68	-16.85
Garrett Atkins	1638	101	110.77	-9.77	-7.7969485	-19.04	-19.21
Mike Jacobs	2860	175	194.95	-19.95	-15.921098	-22.27	-22.44

Is there any thing Albert Pujols can't do? Cure cancer? Acheive world peace? Just wait till he puts his mind to those tasks. Not content with being the best offensive player in the league, he's also one of the top defensive players relative to position in the majors. Actually, the top 4 first basemen in fielding are also quite good offensively. That probably speaks to the relative defensive ease of first base, but it's a very different situation from any other position.

While Justin Morneau might have a good case offensively for his second MVP, his defensive performance should disqualify him from consideration. Yet again, a Pujols versus Howard duel for MVP awaits in the NL. This one really should be a blowout for Pujols since there was close to a 4 win difference just on defense, but I'm not holding my breath for the BBWAA to take that into consideration.

Even though Nick Swisher was almost 10 runs below average, the Yankees would still have gained .6 wins on defense had he been their first baseman instead of Jason Giambi. I'm surprised Sean Casey ranked so poorly. Hopefully he's not done at 33, since he's reportedly one of the nicest guys in the game. And the Royals better be considering Mike Jacobs a DH, not a first baseman, since he makes Ross Gload look like a Gold Glover.

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