2008 LF Defense By PMR

Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMRRAA | 3B: PMRRAAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions.  PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo).  More information can be found in this post.

Today, we look at left fielders  - first on the team level and then for individuals.

 

Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Outs Delta Runs Delta Runs / 4000 RAA / 4000
Royals 4413 368 353.21 14.79 12.296406 11.15 10.77
Rays 4264 344 331.81 12.19 10.134766 9.51 9.13
Indians 4513 302 290.89 11.11 9.236854 8.19 7.81
Nationals 4417 350 339.72 10.28 8.546792 7.74 7.36
Mets 4335 308 299.09 8.91 7.407774 6.84 6.46
Diamondbacks 4224 306 298.79 7.21 5.994394 5.68 5.3
Orioles 4540 362 355.59 6.41 5.329274 4.7 4.32
Brewers 4354 305 299.07 5.93 4.930202 4.53 4.15
Braves 4383 279 273.49 5.51 4.581014 4.18 3.8
Rangers 4667 323 317.21 5.79 4.813806 4.13 3.75
White Sox 4409 293 287.74 5.26 4.373164 3.97 3.59
Athletics 4285 333 328.28 4.72 3.924208 3.66 3.28
Padres 4419 310 306.42 3.58 2.976412 2.69 2.31
Astros 4292 282 278.71 3.29 2.735306 2.55 2.17
Cardinals 4597 312 308.84 3.16 2.627224 2.29 1.91
Red Sox 4232 292 291.37 0.63 0.523782 0.5 0.12
Dodgers 4265 286 285.62 0.38 0.315932 0.3 -0.08
Tigers 4536 356 355.77 0.23 0.191222 0.17 -0.21
Giants 4232 308 308.26 -0.26 -0.216164 -0.2 -0.58
Yankees 4349 316 316.76 -0.76 -0.631864 -0.58 -0.96
Angels 4374 285 286.29 -1.29 -1.072506 -0.98 -1.36
Cubs 4156 302 304.23 -2.23 -1.854022 -1.78 -2.16
Blue Jays 4215 270 272.75 -2.75 -2.28635 -2.17 -2.55
Pirates 4683 293 299.34 -6.34 -5.271076 -4.5 -4.88
Reds 4299 280 288.41 -8.41 -6.992074 -6.51 -6.89
Rockies 4535 282 290.95 -8.95 -7.44103 -6.56 -6.94
Marlins 4338 289 299.06 -10.06 -8.363884 -7.71 -8.09
Mariners 4512 324 336.18 -12.18 -10.126452 -8.98 -9.36
Phillies 4396 260 279.09 -19.09 -15.871426 -14.44 -14.82
Twins 4607 306 327.83 -21.83 -18.149462 -15.76 -16.14

 

Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Outs Delta Runs Delta Runs / 4000

RAA

/ 4000

Skip Schumaker 1085 85 73.79 11.21 9.319994 34.36 33.98
David DeJesus 1522 136 121.91 14.09 11.714426 30.79 30.41
Matt Joyce 1249 94 84.77 9.23 7.673822 24.58 24.2
Brandon Boggs 1818 131 118.1 12.9 10.72506 23.6 23.22
Ben Francisco 2021 150 138.34 11.66 9.694124 19.19 18.81
Willie Harris 1685 145 135.55 9.45 7.85673 18.65 18.27
Carl Crawford 2715 231 217.97 13.03 10.833142 15.96 15.58
Juan Pierre 1816 125 116.83 8.17 6.792538 14.96 14.58
Jay Payton 1293 132 126.31 5.69 4.730666 14.63 14.25
Conor Jackson 1944 146 139.06 6.94 5.769916 11.87 11.49
Gregor Blanco 1547 86 82.08 3.92 3.259088 8.43 8.05
Johnny Damon 1998 155 152 3 2.4942 4.99 4.61
Luke Scott 2668 200 196.08 3.92 3.259088 4.89 4.51
Wily Mo Pena 1260 99 97.68 1.32 1.097448 3.48 3.1
Ryan Braun 3919 275 270.93 4.07 3.383798 3.45 3.07
Carlos Lee 2840 187 185.42 1.58 1.313612 1.85 1.47
Adam Dunn 2942 210 209.06 0.94 0.781516 1.06 0.68
David Dellucci 1164 75 74.64 0.36 0.299304 1.03 0.65
Alfonso Soriano 2653 186 185.23 0.77 0.640178 0.97 0.59
Fred Lewis 2622 178 177.57 0.43 0.357502 0.55 0.17
Carlos Quentin 3465 228 228.42 -0.42 -0.349188 -0.4 -0.78
Jack Cust 1753 129 129.74 -0.74 -0.615236 -1.4 -1.78
Emil Brown 1229 89 89.7 -0.7 -0.58198 -1.89 -2.27
Chase Headley 2159 156 157.62 -1.62 -1.346868 -2.5 -2.88
Matt Holliday 3850 240 243.2 -3.2 -2.66048 -2.76 -3.14
Manny Ramirez 2894 190 193.4 -3.4 -2.82676 -3.91 -4.29
Adam Lind 1712 113 115.52 -2.52 -2.095128 -4.9 -5.28
Xavier Nady 1212 87 89.04 -2.04 -1.696056 -5.6 -5.98
Chris Duncan 1012 73 74.8 -1.8 -1.49652 -5.92 -6.3
Garret Anderson 2113 144 148.53 -4.53 -3.766242 -7.13 -7.51
Raul Ibanez 4203 303 312.07 -9.07 -7.540798 -7.18 -7.56
Jose Guillen 1098 83 85.62 -2.62 -2.178268 -7.94 -8.32
David Murphy 1317 86 89.62 -3.62 -3.009668 -9.14 -9.52
Luis Gonzalez 1547 105 109.32 -4.32 -3.591648 -9.29 -9.67
Josh Willingham 2551 166 173.8 -7.8 -6.48492 -10.17 -10.55
Jason Bay 4215 254 268.19 -14.19 -11.797566 -11.2 -11.58
Eric Byrnes 1209 76 80.12 -4.12 -3.425368 -11.33 -11.71
Delmon Young 4209 282 301.19 -19.19 -15.954566 -15.16 -15.54
Marcus Thames 1537 120 127.42 -7.42 -6.168988 -16.05 -16.43
Pat Burrell 3646 202 223.39 -21.39 -17.783646 -19.51 -19.89

Two of the worst center fielders, Skip Schumaker and David DeJesus show up as the best left fielders.  There aren't a whole lot of full-time left fielders, as the highest rated player with more than 3000 BIP is Ryan Braun at number 15.  Big improvement for the Brew Crew in moving him from 3B.

The 16th and 17th rated left fielders are a surprise as well.  Neither Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn are thought of as good fielders, yet they both scored between 3 and 4 runs above average.  If this number is correct for Dunn, and he can maintain this level of fielding ability for another few years, he could be quite a steal this offseason.  The other major non-Manny free agent from the left field crop, Pat Burrell, probably should be looking for an AL team to DH for, since he was by far the worst left fielder this season.

Extremely surprising is the relative placement of Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay.  Manny has always been considered a pretty terrible outfielder by the play-by-play metrics.  While many of those have had problems dealing with Fenway, even his road numbers were nothing to write home about.  Jason Bay, at least to my memory, has been a pretty good fielder - even getting some games in CF (although the last of those was in 2005).  Still, Manny finished 8 runs above Bay.  I wonder how much of this is a Fenway factor, and how much of it is the conventional wisdom being wrong.  Of course the Red Sox as a whole were basically average in left field, so Bay was likely pretty bad in Pittsburgh.

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