2009 F.A.T. Team

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 16, 2008 3:57 PM EST Comment 20 comments

I grabbed all of these numbers from the CAIRO projections. I defined replacement level as 1.28*LgAvg for starters and 1.07*LgAvg for relievers (or a 5.99 ERA for starters and a 5.01 ERA for relievers) Grabbing the number 5.81 IP/G for the average start, I calculated how many runs the replacement starters and replacement relievers would give up and subtracted the RAR from that (It was 905.8 RA, if you were wondering). Sean Smith's defensive numbers were used again. Using the RA and RS numbers, I used the Pythagenport (using .285) formula to determine the W-L record.

You may notice that the rotation has more than 162 games. The entire rotation, Corcoran, Lugo, and and Correia have all been projected as long reliever type pitchers who will make 15-30 starts. Between the 10 of them, you can probably squeak out 162 decent starts.

Rheinecker had a special calculation for his ERA. CAIRO has him defined as a swingman type reliever but I was looking more for a LOOGY role. To do this, I took a rough FIP of his splits and defined a LOOGY role as 52G 41IP (2004 Hardcore LOOGY) with half of the PAs facing RHB and the other half facing LHB. Using these numbers, gave 20.5IP for against RHB and LHB and using the FIP numbers calculated the numbers of runs given up. Using this runs number, I calculated the ERA.

Player	Pos	G	ERA	IP	RAR
Justin Germano	SP	29	4.60	159	24.56
Claudio Vargas	SP	27	4.72	133	18.77
Enrique Gonzalez	SP	33	4.54	117	18.86
Tomo Ohka	SP	19	5.26	110	8.93
Jack Cassel	SP	32	5.06	155	16.02
Adam Bernero	SP	21	4.94	77	8.99
Adam Bass	SP	34	5.21	104	9.02
Total:		195	5.01	855	105.15
Player	Pos	G	ERA	IP	RAR
R.J. Swindle	CL	37	2.79	49	12.07
Kevin Correia	SU	42	4.68	114	4.15
Tim Corcoran	RP	30	4.59	86	3.99
Chris Schroder	RP	55	4.09	68	6.93
Ruddy Lugo	RP	45	4.83	108	2.13
Chad Paronto	RP	55	4.10	67	6.76
John "Rheino" Rheinecker	RP	52	4.43	41	2.63
Total:		316	4.46	533	38.67

2008 ML Average:		162	4.68	1444.43	147.64
2009 Extrapolated:		162		1444.43	149.66

Player	Pos	PA	BR	RS
Chris Stewart	C	600	50.68	Good
Brian Myrow	1B	600	74.81
Ryan Roberts	2B	600	63.46	2
Morgan Ensberg	3B	600	68.8	-2
Adam Everett	SS	600	46.72	19
Jason Perry	LF	600	78.78	0
Ryan Langerhans	CF	600	64.97	9
John Rodriguez	RF	600	76.78	-1
Chris Shelton	DH	600	76.7	0
Starters Total		5400	601.7	27
Bench Total		1004	97	0
Positional Total:			698.7	27

	RA	RS	Wins	Losses
Team Total:	756	699	75.03	86.97

Observations: There are some good starters on the market but no good lefty starters.

There are also several good relievers on the market and some are lefty.

Overall, the pitching isn't that bad. You might be able to grab some bargain. If R.J. Swindle truly is practically a bullpen ace, he might be a very solid pickup.

Two other catchers on the market, J.R. House and Sandy Madera, are the anti-thesis of Chris Stewart -- great hitting but terrible fielding. It's hard to quantify how many runs defensively they are different because TINSTAAGCP (There is No Such Thing as a Good Catching Projection). All I can say is that J.R. House is one of the worst defensive catchers in the minor league and Chris Stewart is pretty good.

On the whole, you can find some good F.A.T. fielders but the hitting part is more difficult. Your best hitter looks like Jason Perry and he doesn't break 80 BR.

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So, for free*, a team could win 75 games?

There are a lot of fans of bad teams who won’t want to hear that.

By free, we mean about $10MM to $12MM.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 16, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It appears that way.

The Marginal $/Marginal Win for this team looks like something out of the late 70s.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 16, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is pretty close to what the Marlins have done for a couple years, "shocking" the experts.

Of course, they counted mostly on homegrown FAT as opposed to free agent FAT.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 16, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if there has ever been a playoff-level free agent FAT team in any year

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 16, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If that team could win 76 games...

there are a lot of overpaid regulars out there.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 16, 2008 9:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is assuming they reach their projections, though.

Not a sure bet by any case.
But they could win 76 games.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 16, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes and no.

Are there overpaid replacement level players? Yeah.

However, in paying a guy who’s not much better than one of Sanji’s listed F.A.T. guys, you can predict with a MUCH better degree of certainty what numbers he’ll be putting up as opposed to the numbers of one of the F.A.T. guys.

Most people would be MUCH more confident in how effective Brian Fuentes will be against lefties than how effective Rheino will be.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...continued...blech

Some of that money they pay is for the greater “guarantee” of future performance, so you don’t end up with a bunch of wild cards.

The F.A.T. could easily be a 100 loss team. Very easily.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Certainly could undershoot their projections

especially when injuries are taken into account and such. Still, I think a list like this is interesting when viewed with it’s inverse – the guys who, despite performing quite poorly, raked in the dough. Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Jose Guillen, Paul Konerko, etc. Just Andruw alone is probably making more money than the whole F.A.T team combined!

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 17, 2008 8:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The All-Overpaid team

<I’m going to leave off guys who had injury issues. So no Hampton/Pavano/Schmidt/Helton/Chavez/etc.>

LF: Jose Guillen
CF: Andruw Jones
RF: Juan Pierre
DH: Gary Sheffield
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: Help?
SS: Edgar Renteria

SP: Zito
SP: Jeff Suppan
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: Dontrelle Willis
SP: Nate Robertson

Pen (With some starters there as well)
RP: Eric Gagne
RP: Miguel Batista
RP: Jason Isringhausen
RP: Jason Marquis
RP: Joel Pineiro
RP:

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kyle Lohse!

3B: Mora?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mora works.

Kyle Lohse hasn’t proven his worthiness of this list since getting that big contract. Jarrod Washburn, maybe. Chan Ho Park from Texas, maybe?. Jon Garland made 12MM, although that was the last year of his deal. Percival, but he’s making 4MM, but he was below replacement level.

There’s too many candidates.

Who wins more games. This team or the F.A.T. team?

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

F.A.T Team

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 17, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A good projection can more or less be treated as a median.

These F.A.T. guys may undershoot their projections, but they may very well overshoot them. If you think, overall, that these guys are going to undershoot them, then you have a problem with the projections.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 17, 2008 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they overall are going to undershoot

its just that, IMO (this probably isn’t proven, IDK), the big drawback to free talent is that it generally is more of a wild-card how they will perform.

I think the productions are right on mark, a team that’s slightly under .500. I could see a 100 win team just as quickly as I could see a 100 loss team.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The other problem is that it assumes league-average batted-ball values for pitchers.

Which is less fair for proven MLB talent. DIPS theory holds for major leaguers, but it’s definitely a skill in the minors, and one reason why guys don’t transition into MLB. There’s a dynamic trade-off between HRs, Ks, BBs, and BABIP that we don’t understand well enough yet.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 18, 2008 7:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is awesome.

And, if you platooned some of these guys, you could get more production out of the individual “positions”, theoretically.

And, how often do relievers pitch 100++ Innings in a season? Relief ace system FTW. The usage of such a bullpen management model already helps in that win column (I would think so, although I haven’t seen any serious studies on this subject).

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 12:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If they break 100IP, CAIRO thinks they've split time as a starter and a reliever

This bullpen has a ton of swingmen.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 17, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mmm, that makes sense.

The team going through 9 SP in a season, another thing that makes sense when considering injuries and reality and stuff.

Although relief ace systems are awesome too.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs