In Case You Needed Proof That Defense Makes a Difference

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 15, 2008 10:02 PM EST Comment 23 comments

The 2007 BABIPs for Rays pitchers with 120+ outs (see: 40 innings):

Player	BABIP
Camp	0.4179
Seo	0.3862
Howell	0.3742
Stokes	0.3591
Fossum	0.3574
Jackson	0.3411
Kazmir	0.3333
Hammel	0.3308
Sonny	0.326
Glover	0.3086
Shields	0.2825
Reyes	0.2432

Okay, and now the 2008 BABIPs for Rays pitchers with 120 outs.

Player	BABIP
Miller	0.3162
Jackson	0.3024
Sonny	0.3022
Shields	0.2871
Hammel	0.2835
Garza	0.2696
Kazmir	0.2646
Howell	0.2445
Balfour	0.2174
Wheeler	0.1899
Percival	0.1681

Defense: it matters. It's undervalued. It's sexy.

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Also worth noting: Camp's BABIP was the second highest since 1900.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 15, 2008 10:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Defense matters

But chicks dig the long ball.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 15, 2008 10:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and the diving catch in CF.

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Nov 15, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Being able to expect a regression for Grant Ball4 makes me very happy

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 15, 2008 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Peter covered this a bit more last month.

Note sure if you saw it though.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/27/647106/assessing-the-2009-tampa-b

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 15, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I saw it

That’s truly Tampa’s biggest weakness. The pen is not nearly as deep as it was in 2008 and Friedman should do something about it me thinks.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 16, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He should definitely bolster the bullpen, but

it will heavily depend on his ability to move Edwin Jackson, since he is arbitration eligible, and holding out a prayer that Percival retires. And, of course, what the Rays do about their RF/DH hole (one should probably be filled). Although, as you said, the pen is the biggest priority.

I foresee a lot of F.A.T. being added to the pen. Abnormal amounts, even. The big-name FA reliever I could see the Rays targeting is probably Jeremy Affeldt.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 16, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen depth is overrated.

What really matters is the top few guys being lights out. Balfour’s closer quality, even with a more normal BABIP. Howell and Wheeler are better than the typical 2nd and 3rd guys, and then you’ve got Bradford and possibly Jackson/Niemann. If I was in charge, I’d seriously think about returning Howell to the rotation, trading Jackson and Kazmir, and finding a second real bullpen ace would be worthwhile.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 16, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I get that bullpen depth is overrated

However I think a good pen must have 3 good relievers. Other than Howell, who might not even be actually that good, the Rays have no great arms in the pen. The bullpen had a good season and all, but, come on, B4 is not a closer and he will never be. Wheeler is not better than the 3rd guy.

Trading Kazmir would be silly. He had a bad season and is likely to rebound next year. E-Jax doesn’t have lots of value as well, but this might be the best point to trade him. I wouldn’t hope for a big return unless someone screws it up.

The Rays doesn’t have many holes. But that bullpen is not wonderful.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 16, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Balfour

I certainly understand that Balfour’s BABIP will regress and that since he’s never had a season like this before, we are less confident in his skills.

But his 2008 tRA* ranked 10th in the majors among relievers, sandwiched between Lidge and Marmol. And his 2008 tRA also ranked tenth, .05 point behind Papelbon.

I see Balfour as a true-talent 3.00 ERA guy and Howell as a 3.50 ERA guy. I’m as down on Wheeler as anyone you’ll find, so no argument there.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 17, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Grant BB had a very nice season, a career year

I think he should be a solid setup man, but I don’t see him as a closer. He walks too many guys and next season guys will know his stuff better. He’s a FB thrower, and his FB is great and all but it isn’t up there with Papelbon or Rivera. To explain this better, I remember Grant striking out Jason Bay in the ALCS with a 3-2 FB right down the middle. If he ever ever throws that again against Bay, odds are it will be launched 500 ft. Paps is starting to suffer a bit because of this as well.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 17, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you think that trading Kazmir now

is a good idea?

Howell in the rotation is a wild card. I’d rather keep him in the pen as a solid ace behind Balfour. I do agree that another relief ace is a good idea.

Wheeler needs to be traded; there are several signs that he probably won’t put up his 2008 numbers in 2009. Jackson traded is also a good idea IMO.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 17, 2008 1:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trading Kazmir

Yes, he’s coming off a down year, which is a point against trading him. But just as we see his past performance and expect him to rebound, so should smart teams.

Then you’ve got his contract, which is now in the significant rage: $6MM this year, then $8MM, $12MM and a $13.5MM/2.5MM option year. To other teams, that’s a STEAL. To the Rays, 2009 is certainly worth it, but they need to start reigning in the pay increases going forward somewhere. I’d advocate trading Shields or Garza, too, but they won’t start earning real money until 2012 and 2011, respectively.

Think about what Scott Kazmir compared to this off-season’s FA crop of starters. He’s just as good as most of them, and a whole lot cheaper. He would command AT LEAST Ethier. And given the Rays ability to plug young starters into the rotation, the drop from Kazmir to whoever isn’t as large as it normally would be.

In other words, the trade becomes…
Give up Kazmir
Receive Davis/whoever in rotation, Ethier in RF, and $8-10MM available cash over each of the next three years (Milton Bradley?)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 17, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Victor Zambrano available?

seriously, though, I see the point in trading Kazmir. It’s not like the Rays don’t have Wade Davis et al. waiting anyway.

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" --Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on Nov 17, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The thing is

Kazmir is proven in the majors, and is a very good pitcher who had a down season. He has shit for value right now (comparing to the value he would have coming from a strong season).

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 17, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I posted my Kazmir explanation above

But I really don’t think Kazmir has “shit value” right now. Teams realize he’s much better than his 2008 season peripherals. And he even had 3.49 ERA this year. And he’s making peanuts compared to comparable players over the next four years.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 17, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't have 'shit value', that's not what I said

But he had a down season. His FIP was a not so sexy 4.37, he’s turning into a flyball pitcher and walking more guys. He should rebound, like you said he’s much better than he was this year. He then could net a bigger return than the one he would if you traded him right now.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 17, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention an 82 LOB%

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And a low-ish BABIP

He had a crappy season, but he’s still young. I wouldn’t trade 2 guys on the Tampa rotation: Kazmir, because he’s cheap and more valuable to the team than he would be in a trade; and Sonnanstine, because I just like that guy. :)

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 17, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But how cheap is Kazmir compared to Shields, Garza, or any other starter?

Listen, you either think he has shit for trade value right now (like you wrote and then argued you didn’t) or you think he’s tradeable. I disagree he has poor trade value. To smart teams, he’s paid relatively cheaply and should rebound with his peripherals. To dumb teams, he’s paid relatively cheaply and had an ERA in line with the rest of his career.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 18, 2008 7:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He has shit for value when you compare to the value he'd have coming from a strong season

Is this really hard to understand? He would net a good return, but he could net a bigger return after a better year. Like, uh, Texas is asking for Buchholz for Salty straight up. You think they’d even think about asking this after his last season? Or that the Red Sox should do it just to fill a hole? You hold onto guys who could be top of rotation starters, unless you’re rebuilding.

Kazmir has more value staying in the Rays rotation, because he’s likely to rebound and the Rays don’t have anyone right now who could give them his production (Price gets E-Jax spot).

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 18, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You and I are both assuming he will rebound in 2009.

So why wouldn’t a smart team assume the same thing and grab an extra year of Kazmir for only $6MM?

If it’s unlikely he rebounds, they why would the Rays want to hold on to him? So he can post the same peripherals as 2008 but a worse ERA, thereby hurting his trade value (and the Rays in 2009)?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 18, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A smart team wants a steal, man

They’d only trade for Kazmir if they thought they wouldn’t be giving up anything of much value, or something they can lose. Like Texas asking for Buch. So Kazmir could be traded right now, but the return wouldn’t likely match his own production. The Rays doesn’t need to trade him.

If he hurts his value even further then there’s nothing the Rays can do.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 18, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs