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Matt Kemp's 2008 Was Pretty Special

Using my new SQL skills (thanks Colin!) I ran a few queries. The one I'm publishing today was simple: since 1900, I wanted the highest BABIPs for players with 450+ at-bats as well as 150+ strikeouts. The at-bats weren't really necessary, unless someone struck out more than 50% of the time, but whatever. I assumed players with high strikeout totals would have more extreme BABIPs because they're obviously putting less balls into play. Little did I know how extreme they would turn out.

Here's everyone with a BABIP over .350.

Player Team Year AB H HR BB SO BABIP
Jose Hernandez MIL 2002 525 151 24 52 188 0.405
B.J. Upton TBA 2007 474 142 24 65 154 0.393
Bobby Bonds SFN 1970 663 200 26 77 189 0.387
Mo Vaughn BOS 1997 527 166 35 86 154 0.384
Dick Allen PHI 1965 619 187 20 74 150 0.367
Mo Vaughn BOS 1996 635 207 44 95 154 0.366
Mark Bellhorn BOS 2004 523 138 17 88 177 0.365
Sammy Sosa CHN 2000 604 193 50 91 168 0.363
Matt Kemp LAN 2008 606 176 18 46 153 0.361
Andres Galarr. MON 1988 609 184 29 39 153 0.361
Ryan Howard PHI 2006 581 182 58 108 181 0.356
Preston Wilson FLO 1999 482 135 26 46 156 0.356
Jorge Posada NYA 2000 505 145 28 107 151 0.355
Jim Thome CLE 1999 494 137 33 127 171 0.354
Ben Grieve TBA 2001 542 143 11 87 159 0.353
Jim Thome CLE 2001 526 153 49 111 185 0.353
Ray Lankford SLN 1998 533 156 31 86 151 0.352

See, Jose Hernandez knew he was being highly successful when he put balls in play, so he figured he'd just swing at anything and watch it turn into a hit. Bobby Bonds proves that his family's name is on top of any stat report, ever. Mo Vaughn and Mark Bellhorn represent Boston well (I guess?) and then there's Matt Kemp. The 24 year old who-probably-should-not-play-center-but-had to-because-his-team-cannot-judge-defensive-talent Dodger who hit well enough for an OPS just a tick below .800. Not bad for only his second season with more than 300 plate appearances, even if he did go down on strikes 153 times this season.

For those wondering, Dave Kingman's 1981 season was the lowest with an average of .206. Jose Canseco appears to be the only other player on record with these restrictions and a BABIP below .250, although over the years Rob Deer and Jeff Burroughs gave it a legitimate run.

 

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The Big NL MVP Post

Sep 2008 by Sky Kalkman - 22 comments

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By the way...

This post serves as fair warning to all reader’s of RJ’s future abuse of slicing and dicing data. It’s going to get out of control quickly, folks. Not that that’s a bad thing.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 2:10 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also,

Kemp had a .411 BABIP last year. Has he simply been lucky for two seasons in a row?

by Peter Bendix on Nov 15, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he's prone to high strikeout totals...

Then not necessarily. Although at some point I would guess (no data to back this up) his BABIP will have a season of collapse, wouldn’t you?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 15, 2008 2:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe your new-fangled database skills can study this question.

What is the year-to-year correlation of hitters’ BABIP? How much should we regress one season’s worth? Two seasons’? What if you include multiple variables, like K-rate, HR-rate, LD%, etc? Once you get season data from your database, Excel can run the multi-variable regressions.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 2:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's very possible.

The big thing to learn is joins – I’ve gotten part of the tutorial on joins written up, but it’s a heavy topic to deal with.

To do a simple correlation, you don’t even need Excel. To correlate XR to RUNS (left over from my great run estimator test from a while back), you would use:

((SUM – (SUM * SUM / COUNT)) / sqrt((SUM – pow(SUM, 2.0) / COUNT) * (SUM – pow(SUM, 2.0) / COUNT))) AS R

It’s a bit mealymouthed but perfectly functional.

by cwyers on Nov 15, 2008 11:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

…or it would be, if SBN didn’t eat parts of it. Substitute asterisks for the x’s below:

((SUM – (SUM x SUM / COUNT)) / sqrt((SUM – pow(SUM, 2.0) / COUNT) x (SUM – pow(SUM, 2.0) / COUNT))) AS R

by cwyers on Nov 15, 2008 11:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just meant that I had the same question...

How much should we regress BABIP and/or batted ball data when making projections? To put it another way, how much of BABIP (and for that matter batting average) is skill, and how much is random variation/luck?

The guys at StatCorner said they’re working on it. I just find it curious how commonplace the acceptance of DIPS is among sabermatricians, yet nobody seems to have answered the question as to how luck impacts the other side of the ledger.

by Nick J on Nov 16, 2008 8:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually...

That’s not completely true. There HAS been a good amount of research into the luck side of hitting. But I don’t think we’ve really decided how to differentiate between luck and skill when it comes to LD% and BABIP.

In short, good question. I look forward to what people discover.

by Nick J on Nov 16, 2008 8:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's wrong with Kemp in center field?

Dewan’s Plus/Minus has him at -1 (16th) and Baseball Musings’ PMoR has him about average. All in all, I don’t see 1/10th of a win being so detrimental that he should be forced to move to a corner.

by kensai on Nov 16, 2008 6:21 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is it worth it?

Runs wise I mean.

He already has one of the best throwing arms in center, and if he can improve his range marginally to average, doesn’t his offensive production become much more valuable to the Dodgers from center than a corner? After all, it might allow them to field something like Ramirez-Kemp-Ethier or really Any High Priced Slugger-Kemp-Ethier.

I didn’t really look at his RF runs saved. :o

by kensai on Nov 17, 2008 8:51 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Matt Kemp

He has to raise his average a little. I don’t think that Man-Ram is going to be in L.A. next year to protect him in the line-up.

The Trade-Maker

by dasox313 on Nov 16, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He was fine

He also had his best month before Manny got there.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Nov 17, 2008 12:08 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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