What effect on a teams run total does the ½ inning a home team doesn't play if it is ahead going into the bottom of the last inning?

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 13, 2008 3:47 PM EST Comment 6 comments

Question: What effect on a teams run total does the ½ inning a home team doesn't play if it is ahead going into the bottom of the last inning?

Why I asked the question: I have wondered where why teams were off on their Pythagorean record and wondered if the ½ inning that wasn't played made any difference.

I explain the Pythagorean theorem with respect to baseball records under the article:

http://jeffsqanda.blogspot.com/2008/10/can-1-run-games-and-blowout-wins-and.html

Analysis: The number of innings that a team pitched vice the number innings that a team batted were researched and compared. The innings pitched was easy to find as it is used in every pitching statistic under the sun, but I was not able to locate the innings batted or outs record. After trying to find a list of total outs, innings batted, etc., I had to go with the following formula to determine innings batted (basically Innings = Outs/3):

Innings batted =(TPA+DP+CS-H-BB-HBP-CI)/3 + 5.3

TPA = Total plate appearances

DP = Double play (out after getting on base)

CS = Caught Stealing (again out after getting on base)

H = Hit

BB = Base on Balls

HBP = Hit by pitch

CI = Catcher interference

5.3 = When I initially took the total innings pitched minus the innings batted there was an average discrepancy of 5 1/3 innings worth of outs not accounted for. These were cases when a runner was on base but was picked off the base pitcher, thrown out stretching a single to a double, etc.

Innings pitched minus innings batted were used to get the difference from one team to the next. The number show what I expected, teams with a winning record did not have as many innings batted compared to those that didn't win as often. For example the Cubs had 18 more innings pitched than batted while the Nationals hit in 31 more innings than they pitched.

After those calculations, the runs these innings would have created was calculated. The league average of 4.5 runs per games was used. Here is the formula:

Runs difference if extra inning played = Innings/9*4.5

The positive or negative runs were added to the team's total in runs scored for the season. The teams initial Pythagorean W-L record was calculated. Then the total number of games wons that the Pythagorean was off was added together. For the non adjusted values, it was off by a total of 103 games. Finally, I took the Pythagorean value using the new runs scored value, got the sum of the difference of the new Pythagorean wins and the actual number (98) and then compared the two sums. Here is the data:

MLB	W	L	RS	RA	W – Orig Py	L – Orig Py	Diff – Orig Py
Washington	59	102	641	825	61	100	2
Seattle	61	101	671	811	66	96	5
San Diego	63	99	637	764	66	96	3
Pittsburgh	67	95	735	884	66	96	1
Baltimore	68	93	782	869	72	89	4
San Francisco	72	90	640	759	67	95	5
Atlanta	72	90	753	778	78	84	6
Cincinnati	74	88	704	800	71	91	3
Detroit	74	88	821	857	78	84	4
Colorado	74	88	747	822	73	89	1
Oakland	75	86	646	690	75	86	0
Kansas City	75	87	691	781	71	91	4
Texas	79	83	901	967	75	87	4
Cleveland	81	81	805	761	86	76	5
Arizona	82	80	720	706	83	79	1
LA Dodgers	84	78	700	648	87	75	3
Florida	84	77	770	767	81	80	3
Toronto	86	76	714	610	94	68	8
Houston	86	75	712	743	77	84	9
St. Louis	86	76	779	725	87	75	1
Chicago Sox	88	74	810	729	90	72	2
Minnesota	88	74	829	744	90	72	2
NY Mets	89	73	799	715	90	72	1
NY Yankees	89	73	789	727	88	74	1
Milwaukee	90	72	750	689	88	74	2
Philadelphia	92	70	799	680	94	68	2
Boston	95	67	845	694	97	65	2
Tampa Bay	97	65	774	671	92	70	5
Chicago Cubs	97	64	855	671	100	61	3
LA Angels	100	62	765	697	89	73	11
						Original Difference	103

MLB	Innings Pitched – Innings Batted	Additional runs	New RS	W – Py Adjust	L- Py Adjust	Diff – Py Adjust	Team change
Washington	-31	-15.5	626	59	102	0	2
Seattle	-23	-11.5	660	64	98	3	2
San Diego	-13	-6.5	631	66	96	3	0
Pittsburgh	-13	-6.5	729	66	96	1	0
Baltimore	-5	-2.5	780	72	89	4	0
San Francisco	-12	-6	634	67	95	5	0
Atlanta	-8	-4	749	78	84	6	0
Cincinnati	-11	-5.5	699	70	92	4	-1
Detroit	-3	-1.5	820	77	85	3	1
Colorado	-8	-4	743	73	89	1	0
Oakland	-8	-4	642	75	86	0	0
Kansas City	1	0.5	692	71	91	4	0
Texas	0	0	901	75	87	4	0
Cleveland	-2	-1	804	85	77	4	1
Arizona	9	4.5	725	83	79	1	0
LA Dodgers	3	1.5	702	87	75	3	0
Florida	0	0	770	81	80	3	0
Toronto	8	4	718	94	68	8	0
Houston	2	1	713	77	84	9	0
St. Louis	10	5	784	87	75	1	0
Chicago Sox	9	4.5	815	90	72	2	0
Minnesota	5	2.5	832	90	72	2	0
NY Mets	2	1	800	90	72	1	0
NY Yankees	8	4	793	88	74	1	0
Milwaukee	5	2.5	753	88	74	2	0
Philadelphia	6	3	802	94	68	2	0
Boston	17	8.5	854	98	64	3	-1
Tampa Bay	18	9	783	93	69	4	1
Chicago Cubs	18	9	864	100	61	3	0
LA Angels	15	7.5	773	89	73	11	0
					Adjusted Difference	98

The difference is 5 games, not a lot of games, but does bring a better understanding of the difference in records a little more in focus. The lost half inning, along with my explanation on Blowout and 1 runs games, help to explain the difference in Pythagorean records.

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Thanks for sharing.

The half-inning issue is also important for park factors.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm... hadn't thought about that...

Might want to shorten the name of the post though…

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 13, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs