2008 RF Defense By PMR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 13, 2008 11:00 AM EST in Stat-Colored Glasses Comment 4 comments

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.

Today, we look at right fielders - first on the team level and then for individuals.

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Twins	4607	397	374.04	22.96	19.35528	16.81	16.81
Giants	4232	392	372.99	19.01	16.02543	15.15	15.15
Blue Jays	4215	303	286.97	16.03	13.51329	12.82	12.82
Indians	4513	374	358.85	15.15	12.77145	11.32	11.32
Padres	4419	339	329.6	9.4	7.9242	7.17	7.17
Phillies	4396	318	310.41	7.59	6.39837	5.82	5.82
Red Sox	4232	325	318.64	6.36	5.36148	5.07	5.07
Rangers	4667	382	375.27	6.73	5.67339	4.86	4.86
Nationals	4417	353	346.81	6.19	5.21817	4.73	4.73
Braves	4383	313	307.02	5.98	5.04114	4.6	4.6
Marlins	4338	345	340.25	4.75	4.00425	3.69	3.69
Cubs	4156	333	329.14	3.86	3.25398	3.13	3.13
Cardinals	4597	362	360.58	1.42	1.19706	1.04	1.04
Diamondbacks	4224	269	268.33	0.67	0.56481	0.53	0.53
Athletics	4285	377	376.5	0.5	0.4215	0.39	0.39
Mariners	4512	309	310.73	-1.73	-1.45839	-1.29	-1.29
Dodgers	4265	278	279.64	-1.64	-1.38252	-1.3	-1.3
Brewers	4354	316	318.38	-2.38	-2.00634	-1.84	-1.84
Royals	4413	334	336.94	-2.94	-2.47842	-2.25	-2.25
Pirates	4683	386	389.32	-3.32	-2.79876	-2.39	-2.39
Orioles	4540	338	341.58	-3.58	-3.01794	-2.66	-2.66
Mets	4335	356	360.14	-4.14	-3.49002	-3.22	-3.22
Astros	4292	357	365.06	-8.06	-6.79458	-6.33	-6.33
Tigers	4536	301	311.48	-10.48	-8.83464	-7.79	-7.79
Rays	4264	345	354.99	-9.99	-8.42157	-7.9	-7.9
Reds	4299	327	338.05	-11.05	-9.31515	-8.67	-8.67
White Sox	4409	296	308.31	-12.31	-10.37733	-9.41	-9.41
Angels	4374	308	322.64	-14.64	-12.34152	-11.29	-11.29
Yankees	4349	301	316.77	-15.77	-13.29411	-12.23	-12.23
Rockies	4535	249	273.59	-24.59	-20.72937	-18.28	-18.28

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Denard Span	2099	192	176.27	15.73	13.26039	25.27	25.27
Franklin Gutierrez	2400	224	207.25	16.75	14.12025	23.53	23.53
Alex Rios	2373	170	156.05	13.95	11.75985	19.82	19.82
Randy Winn	3247	309	291.22	17.78	14.98854	18.46	18.46
Jayson Werth	1964	143	133.49	9.51	8.01693	16.33	16.33
Endy Chavez	1176	109	103.84	5.16	4.34988	14.8	14.8
Matt Kemp	1391	97	91.48	5.52	4.65336	13.38	13.38
Austin Kearns	2268	187	179.28	7.72	6.50796	11.48	11.48
Michael Cuddyer	1640	123	118.33	4.67	3.93681	9.6	9.6
Justin Upton	2531	175	168.66	6.34	5.34462	8.45	8.45
Kosuke Fukudome	3164	246	240.12	5.88	4.95684	6.27	6.27
Ryan Sweeney	1462	136	133.41	2.59	2.18337	5.97	5.97
David Murphy	1279	107	104.84	2.16	1.82088	5.69	5.69
Jeff Francouer	4016	284	278.05	5.95	5.01585	5	5
Mark Teahen	2292	185	181.68	3.32	2.79876	4.88	4.88
Ichiro Suzuki	2491	176	172.83	3.17	2.67231	4.29	4.29
Brian Giles	3845	276	271.51	4.49	3.78507	3.94	3.94
Jeremy Hermida	3310	266	263.1	2.9	2.4447	2.95	2.95
J.D. Drew	2658	184	183.15	0.85	0.71655	1.08	1.08
Gabe Gross	2225	186	185.51	0.49	0.41307	0.74	0.74
Nick Markakis	4353	329	328.98	0.02	0.01686	0.02	0.02
Corey Hart	4134	304	305.57	-1.57	-1.32351	-1.28	-1.28
Brad Wilkerson	1428	95	95.58	-0.58	-0.48894	-1.37	-1.37
Ryan Church	2158	180	181.26	-1.26	-1.06218	-1.97	-1.97
Geoff Jenkins	1974	141	142.41	-1.41	-1.18863	-2.41	-2.41
Elijah Dukes	1840	137	138.55	-1.55	-1.30665	-2.84	-2.84
Shin-Soo Choo	1255	89	90.51	-1.51	-1.27293	-4.06	-4.06
Hunter Pence	4112	341	349.04	-8.04	-6.77772	-6.59	-6.59
Jose Guillen	1673	121	124.68	-3.68	-3.10224	-7.42	-7.42
Andre Ethier	2620	171	176.94	-5.94	-5.00742	-7.64	-7.64
Emil Brown	1264	112	114.89	-2.89	-2.43627	-7.71	-7.71
Jay Bruce	1777	143	147.07	-4.07	-3.43101	-7.72	-7.72
Vladimir Guerrero	2541	180	186.37	-6.37	-5.36991	-8.45	-8.45
Magglio Ordonez	3588	220	229.25	-9.25	-7.79775	-8.69	-8.69
Ryan Ludwick	3037	232	240.07	-8.07	-6.80301	-8.96	-8.96
Jermaine Dye	3981	266	277.6	-11.6	-9.7788	-9.83	-9.83
Xavier Nady	2497	199	207.14	-8.14	-6.86202	-10.99	-10.99
Bobby Abreu	3933	271	284.58	-13.58	-11.44794	-11.64	-11.64
Ken Griffey Jr.	2257	157	166.16	-9.16	-7.72188	-13.69	-13.69
Eric Hinske	1001	88	92.73	-4.73	-3.98739	-15.93	-15.93
Gary Matthews Jr.	1013	77	82.08	-5.08	-4.28244	-16.91	-16.91
Brad Hawpe	3645	188	213.67	-25.67	-21.63981	-23.75	-23.75

Another position where the Blue Jays rank near the top, largely because of Alex Rios. Ichiro rated better as CF than a RF. A commenter at Baseball Musings suggests that might be because in CF he shades left to cover for Ibanez and therefore catches lower probability balls. Bobby Abreu wasn't just scared of walls this season, he was genuinely bad. It's sad to see how far Ken Griffey Jr. has fallen. He's at the point where he should only be a full time DH. Little Sarge has to be a disappointment to the Angels (although a thoroughly unsurprising one).

Jayson Werth was very, very good for the Phils in limited time in right. Justin Upton didn't do nearly as well as his brother, but he scored +7 for the Diamondbacks. Even though Jeff Francouer couldn't hit or draw a walk this year, he did manage to contribute on defense. The Cards add a pretty poor right fielder to their collection of poor center fielders. At least they all had good seasons at the plate. And Brad Hawpe rates horribly for the Rockies. As a tease for later, they're pretty bad in LF too. I wonder if that's talent or some fluke of Coors.

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Comments

I remember Nady jumping for a ball playing with the Yankees

It looked like he never ever jumped for a ball in his life, like, he had no idea what the fuck he was doing. I’m actually surprised he isn’t lower in the list, but the guys below him are very awful indeed.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 13, 2008 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

CHONE thinks he can play a great 1B, though

I’m up for Swisher in RF and Nady at first, personally, if that’s right.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 13, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PMR to Runs

Dan, I was keeping track of PMR numbers and turning them into runs for myself in excel and then found out you were doing the same. I saw that you linked to where you got your methodology from, and that link (LA Blackhawk of Waterloo I believe) linked to Chris Dials methodology — the exact same that I’m using. I’m not doing runs above/below average or anything, just making a little spreadsheet of runs totals, but mine differ from yours and I’m wondering why. Here is my spreadsheet, and I’m not sure what I’m doing differently from you. I’m comparing my Runs Per 150 (DERs * 4000 BIP) totals to your Runs / 4000 and, for example, I’ve got Randy Winn at 17.01 runs and you’ve got him at 18.46. If you could get back to me via email (since I’ll forget to check this again … though I did add you to my RSS feeds), that’d be appreciated: mikerogers04(at)gmail.com

Thanks.

by Mike Rogers on Nov 13, 2008 10:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs