2008 3B Defense by PMR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 12, 2008 8:33 AM EST in Stat-Colored Glasses Comment 7 comments

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.

Today, we look at third basemen - first on the team level and then for individuals.

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Blue Jays	4215	415	392.25	22.75	18.205005	17.28	17.24
Mariners	4512	403	384.91	18.09	14.4759798	12.83	12.79
Red Sox	4232	440	423.21	16.79	13.4356938	12.7	12.66
Dodgers	4265	427	411.45	15.55	12.443421	11.67	11.63
Angels	4374	391	377.04	13.96	11.1710712	10.22	10.18
Rays	4264	420	406.66	13.34	10.6749348	10.01	9.97
Braves	4383	404	390.88	13.12	10.4988864	9.58	9.54
Tigers	4536	471	458.72	12.28	9.8267016	8.67	8.63
Brewers	4354	396	387.21	8.79	7.0339338	6.46	6.42
White Sox	4409	463	455.46	7.54	6.0336588	5.47	5.43
Padres	4419	382	376.01	5.99	4.7933178	4.34	4.3
Astros	4292	408	402.2	5.8	4.641276	4.33	4.29
Athletics	4285	385	380.25	4.75	3.801045	3.55	3.51
Pirates	4683	445	442.19	2.81	2.2486182	1.92	1.88
Rockies	4535	412	410.31	1.69	1.3523718	1.19	1.15
Nationals	4417	416	415.43	0.57	0.4561254	0.41	0.37
Yankees	4346	379	378.81	0.19	0.1520418	0.14	0.1
Cubs	4156	341	342.34	-1.34	-1.0722948	-1.03	-1.07
Mets	4335	374	376.09	-2.09	-1.6724598	-1.54	-1.58
Indians	4513	419	423.48	-4.48	-3.5849856	-3.18	-3.22
Marlins	4338	370	375.82	-5.82	-4.6572804	-4.29	-4.33
Royals	4413	375	386.63	-11.63	-9.3065586	-8.44	-8.48
Rangers	4667	372	386.02	-14.02	-11.219084	-9.62	-9.66
Phillies	4396	411	425.13	-14.13	-11.307109	-10.29	-10.33
Diamondbacks	4224	350	363.76	-13.76	-11.011027	-10.43	-10.47
Twins	4607	382	397.09	-15.09	-12.07532	-10.48	-10.52
Cardinals	4597	416	432.51	-16.51	-13.211632	-11.5	-11.54
Giants	4232	338	356.28	-18.28	-14.628022	-13.83	-13.87
Reds	4299	337	356.45	-19.45	-15.564279	-14.48	-14.52
Orioles	4540	421	446.86	-25.86	-20.693689	-18.23	-18.27

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Chone Figgins	2787	249	230.03	18.97	15.1801734	21.79	21.75
Andy Marte	1849	185	173.47	11.53	9.2265366	19.96	19.92
Evan Longoria	3059	304	286.97	17.03	13.6277466	17.82	17.78
Ian Stewart	1651	160	151.25	8.75	7.001925	16.96	16.92
Carlos Guillen	2396	246	233.91	12.09	9.6746598	16.15	16.11
Mike Lowell	2717	279	266.51	12.49	9.9947478	14.71	14.67
Blake DeWitt	2152	233	223.28	9.72	7.7781384	14.46	14.42
Geoff Blum	1773	179	171	8	6.40176	14.44	14.4
Jack Hannahan	2882	267	254.14	12.86	10.2908292	14.28	14.24
Adrian Beltre	3804	338	321.08	16.92	13.5397224	14.24	14.2
Joe Crede	2492	251	242.47	8.53	6.8258766	10.96	10.92
Bill Hall	2709	238	229.92	8.08	6.4657776	9.55	9.51
Chipper Jones	2981	274	265.13	8.87	7.0979514	9.52	9.48
Scott Rolen	2935	274	267.64	6.36	5.0893992	6.94	6.9
Kevin Kouzmanoff	4179	368	361.2	6.8	5.441496	5.21	5.17
Alex Rodriguez	3377	297	291.79	5.21	4.1691462	4.94	4.9
Jose Bautista	2478	243	240.95	2.05	1.640451	2.65	2.61
Greg Dobbs	1000	92	91.52	0.48	0.3841056	1.54	1.5
Ryan Zimmerman	2786	275	273.75	1.25	1.000275	1.44	1.4
David Wright	4234	367	365.59	1.41	1.1283102	1.07	1.03
Willy Aybar	1048	108	107.77	0.23	0.1840506	0.7	0.66
Andy LaRoche	1573	152	151.71	0.29	0.2320638	0.59	0.55
Juan Uribe	1424	156	157.08	-1.08	-0.8642376	-2.43	-2.47
Aramis Ramirez	3664	290	294.47	-4.47	-3.5769834	-3.91	-3.95
Edwin Encarnacion	3673	288	295.33	-7.33	-5.8656126	-6.39	-6.43
Mike Lamb	1508	117	120.22	-3.22	-2.5767084	-6.83	-6.87
Jose Castillo	2560	214	220.73	-6.73	-5.3854806	-8.41	-8.45
Brian Buscher	1564	141	145.3	-4.3	-3.440946	-8.8	-8.84
Garrett Atkins	2528	221	228.04	-7.04	-5.6335488	-8.91	-8.95
Mark Reynolds	3759	304	315.66	-11.66	-9.3305652	-9.93	-9.97
Jorge Cantu	3264	271	281.48	-10.48	-8.3863056	-10.28	-10.32
Alex Gordon	3583	316	329.28	-13.28	-10.626922	-11.86	-11.9
Casey Blake	3318	288	301.47	-13.47	-10.778963	-12.99	-13.03
Ty Wigginton	2013	175	183.48	-8.48	-6.7858656	-13.48	-13.52
Pedro Feliz	2972	280	292.73	-12.73	-10.186801	-13.71	-13.75
Troy Glaus	3908	351	368.31	-17.31	-13.851808	-14.18	-14.22
Melvin Mora	3362	320	342.26	-22.26	-17.812897	-21.19	-21.23
Ramon Vazquez	1712	138	149.87	-11.87	-9.4986114	-22.19	-22.23
Rich Aurillia	1271	93	106.18	-13.18	-10.5469	-33.19	-33.23

Here's the first position where the Blue Jays come out near the top, and it's due to their backups as much as to Scott Rolen (including this year's fielding whiz, Marco Scutaro). This Evan Longoria kid could be the real thing. Former uber-prospect Andy Marte hasn't done much offensively but performed quite well in limited time on defense. Melvin Mora may still be a force at the plate, but his fielding takes away much of his offensive value. The Royals have to be wondering if they made the right decision to move Teahen off 3B and to keep Gordon there. For you Red Sox fans wondering how Youkilis was at 3B, we don't have the numbers for him, but the non-Lowell 3B (Youk, Lowrie and 15 innings of Kevin Cash) were -2 runs.

For the World Champs, Pedro Feliz rated much, much lower than his reputation. And he definitely wasn't contributing much on offense. I wonder if he was this poor this season or the Phillies are doing something strange with positioning. Rich Aurilia should not be allowed to play 3B any more - and he probably doesn't have the bat for 1B (where he played 82 games last year). That's upsetting to me, as he was probably my favorite Giant off their WS team in 2002. Supposed FA bargain Casey Blake rated quite poorly defensively, so he may not be the good buy that everyone seems to be suggesting. David Wright has a Gold Glove that probably should have gone to Blake DeWitt. If DeWitt didn't play enough for your liking, both Bill Hall and Chipper were better options than Wright.

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Comments

I like how the CHONE projection for Figgy underrated him by 20 runs

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 12, 2008 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gordon-Teahen

CHONE may project Gordon for -9, but Teahen projects at -11. IN 2005 UZR had Teahen at -2 2runs, in 2006, -10 runs.

While I understand the concern about Gordon, in 2007 PMR had him at ~~3 plays; while Dewan’s had him at plus 6, and UZR had him at plus 4 runs. So, given the limited data, he certainly projects better than Teahen, and may rebound -~~ before he went down with inury, I believe Gordon’s numbers were even worse, so he may have rebounded in the latter half of 2008. A similar thing happened in 2007 — halfway through the season he was about -7 UZR, but ended up at +4.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

inadvertant strikethrough

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Youk looked amazing at 3rd

Nice range, good instincts, strong arm and good decisions. I don’t remember Lowrie all that well, I just know he wasn’t impressive at 3rd. I saw all Youk’s games at 3rd, and he isn’t in the same league as Aramis Ramirez, he’s far better.

Figgins must be really smooth, because I’m pretty sure that I have a far stronger arm than him.

Through all the season, I have defended that Alex Gordon will be a better player than Evan Longoria. Not this season, but in the future. Don’t ask me why. However, he’s making my job really hard.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad someone outside of KC is still optimistic about Gordon

I’m not saying he is or will be better than Longoria… but, wow… his offense makes progress, then his defense falls apart. If I set aside the fact that first- and second-half splits aren’t predictive, I can let myself get excited about his .888 second-half OPs.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon has a very nice swing

And I think he has potential to be good with the glove as well. His first 2 seasons were good, but not great. His bat is coming along, and I think he’ll pick it up on defense. I think he’ll be a better player than Longoria, but I don’t have anything to back that up other than I just prefer his swing.

I’m just a sucker for guys with good gap power, and KC have 2 such young hitters that will be studs with some time: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow! It says Troy Glaus sucks

I watched the guy all year and he looked very good this year. I am used to watching Rolen too. He made barely any errors this season and was solid. I have a hard time believing the numbers. Especially from the guy that led all MLB 3B in Fielding Percentage was 7th in Zone Rating and 4th in Range Factor.

by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 12, 2008 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs