Mariano Rivera is Crazy Good

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:00 PM EST Comment 44 comments

How good is the question I decided to attempt to answer. First I collected the data for 30 of the top relievers in the business. From save-record setting closers like Francisco Rodriguez to relievers only this site would fawn over like Scott Downs. I then took their tRA, subtracted .35 to get on a ERA scale, and multiplied that by innings pitched divided by nine. Here are those results:

Reliever	IP	tRA	pLI	Pre-LRS
Rivera	70	1.11	1.92	31
Kuo	69	1.75	1.09	26
Marmol	87.3	2.49	1.46	25
Papelbon	66.3	2.03	1.59	23
Fuentes	62.7	1.97	2.01	22
Wood	65.3	2.11	1.99	22
Lidge	68	2.31	1.91	21
Balfour	58.3	2.08	1.26	20
Nathan	66	2.65	1.93	18
Broxton	69	2.78	1.7	18
Soria	67.3	2.82	1.78	17
Downs	70.7	2.95	1.6	17
Devine	45.3	1.93	1.36	16
Saito	45	2.04	1.73	15
Jenks	61.7	2.89	1.75	15
Arredondo	61	3.14	1.29	13
Street	70	3.58	1.91	12
Marte	65	3.45	1.39	12
Rodriguez	68.3	3.59	2.54	11
Bell	78	3.79	1.77	11
Shields	63.3	3.68	1.83	10
Ziegler	59.7	3.77	1.69	9
B. Wilson	62.3	4.08	2.25	7
Hoffman	45.3	3.67	1.9	7
Capps	53.7	3.95	1.7	7
Lyon	59.3	4	1.65	7
Rauch	71.7	4.17	1.32	7
Sherrill	53.3	4.07	2.02	6
Corpas	79.7	4.57	1.37	5
Romero	59	4.39	1.52	5

My next question was this: should J.C. Romero's innings count the same as Mariano Rivera's? Not due to the number next to that inning, but rather the leverage situation. Since pLI is readily available at FanGraphs I decided to add that in. Adjusting the formula by simply multiplying our "Pre-LRS" by pLI. Call it Leveraged Runs Saved, and I included the Pre-LRS numbers in case you don't want a context-based metric.

Reliever	IP	tRA	pLI	Pre-LRS	LRS
Rivera	70	1.11	1.92	31	60
Fuentes	62.7	1.97	2.01	22	44
Wood	65.3	2.11	1.99	22	43
Lidge	68	2.31	1.91	21	40
Marmol	87.3	2.49	1.46	25	37
Papelbon	66.3	2.03	1.59	23	36
Nathan	66	2.65	1.93	18	35
Broxton	69	2.78	1.7	18	30
Soria	67.3	2.82	1.78	17	30
Rodriguez	68.3	3.59	2.54	11	29
Kuo	69	1.75	1.09	26	28
Downs	70.7	2.95	1.6	17	27
Jenks	61.7	2.89	1.75	15	27
Saito	45	2.04	1.73	15	26
Balfour	58.3	2.08	1.26	20	25
Street	70	3.58	1.91	12	23
Devine	45.3	1.93	1.36	16	22
Bell	78	3.79	1.77	11	20
Shields	63.3	3.68	1.83	10	18
Arredondo	61	3.14	1.29	13	17
Marte	65	3.45	1.39	12	17
B. Wilson	62.3	4.08	2.25	7	16
Ziegler	59.7	3.77	1.69	9	15
Hoffman	45.3	3.67	1.9	7	14
Capps	53.7	3.95	1.7	7	12
Lyon	59.3	4	1.65	7	12
Sherrill	53.3	4.07	2.02	6	12
Rauch	71.7	4.17	1.32	7	10
Romero	59	4.39	1.52	5	7
Corpas	79.7	4.57	1.37	5	6

You'll notice Rivera's lead only increases. He's almost 20 runs better than the next of the best reliever. That's amazing. Remember Rivera is 38 and only recorded 39 saves this season. For whatever reason not a ton of people talked about his season, I guess the Yankees not being a playoff team had something to do with it, yet I'm not going to accept that as a reasonable excuse.

Other notes:

- Kuo was just as good as Rodriguez, but his town mate had 61 more saves.

- Speaking of Los Angeles, both teams have three relievers listed.

- Same with Oakland, pre-Street trade.

- Can Joe Nathan get some love? Just a little?

- Marmol/Wood is the best National League combo.

- Broxton + Soria = Rivera. Seriously someone get this man some more love.

References

StatCorner

FanGraphs

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Comments

i agree with this analysis.

by larry on Nov 12, 2008 12:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm still in disbelief as to how he gets zero mention despite blowing K-Rod's season away.

I know the answer is the saves total, but 39 is pretty decent.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think it's also the whole "it was a good season but it wasn't a great season by his standards" thing.

perception obviously colored by the saves total and the yankees lack of playoffs. rivera is just so good that this stuff is ho-hum. but, damn, 0.665 WHIP? i mean…damn.

by larry on Nov 12, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shouldn't we call that the Pujols Syndrome?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

fits a lot of guys. more generally it's the great player syndrome.

but whoever wants to attach their name to it is fine.

by larry on Nov 12, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

It was the best season he ever pitched.. I think we all just slept on him, especially considering 07 was probably his worst season.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Nov 12, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Weird Yankee effect

either massively overrated (Jeter, Tino) or in the shadows and underrated (Rivera, Bernie).

I love how a closer can have one or good seasons and suddenly people throw around Rivera comparisons. Remember Eric Gagne?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I talked about him all season

Reminiscent of Eckersley’s best seasons.

by JI on Nov 12, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mo is awesome

But you know, there’s only guy among those getting MVP love… Sad stuff, man, sad stuff…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lidge will probably get a vote or two.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Lidge was pretty good

K-Rod was okay. They both shouldn’t get any vote.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I assumed you meant K-Rod would get a MVP vote.

So I meant Lidge too. Sorry about the confusion.

Lidge finished top 5 in CY, we know Rivera won’t, K-Rod may.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that's pretty sad

Mo is so good that even with pretty much everyone considering him the best closer ever, he’s still underrated.

I think K-Rod may even take the MVP award. Don’t ever underestimate the dumbness of the BBWAA.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ramon Ramirez

I know it isn’t necessarilly relevant here, but while leverage is obvioulsy important when discussing relievers, I’m not sure if its completely fair, given that relievers (unless I’m misunderstanding the stat) don’t choose the situations they pitch in.

Ramon Ramirez is a case in point. He doesn’t make either list, despite being a “setup man.” Is that his fault? I dunno. But according to pRAA at Stat Corner (essential tRA above league average * innings pitched), he was the fifth most valuble reliever in the AL, even higher that Soria, the closer on his own team (Ramirez pitched more innings, and had a better tRA than Soria).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was actually going to put Ramirez on here, but wanted an even number.

I’m probably going to pursue collecting pLI and tRA numbers for all relievers with 40+ innings and do a comprehensive list.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming people actually would be interested.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be awesome.

Although there’s probably a massive amount of relievers with 40+ innings.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 12, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps 60+ then?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There are 91 relievers with 60+ innings this season. Scary.

Definitely still looks like a huge, huge task.

Maybe the X best relievers and the 10 worst might sound more feasible.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 12, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, it's not that bad.

My process would be this:

Set minimum # of PAs on StatCorner, get the top 60 in tRA
Export the top pLI guys with x+ IP
Use vlookup to import the pLI number next to tRA.
Then I just have to enter innings.

We’ll see, perhaps I can come up with a better alternative.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds good

But would that address devil_fingers concern that leverage would undervalue a reliever.

by Sokojoe on Nov 12, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, not unless you only compare him to pitchers within his leverage bracket.

That’s why I included a context-free number as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

Thanks for clearing that up

by Sokojoe on Nov 12, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ramon Ramirez: 27 LRS.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point.

This is more a list of most productive relievers in 2008 and not a list of best relievers. Going forward, or to assess actual personal value (like on the free agent market) you want to assign each reliever a leverage based on how good he is. That is, what sorts of situations he deserves to pitch in.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 12, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the lack of thornton in this post is depressing

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matt Thornton needs to be kicked in the balls repeatedly.

by Graham on Nov 12, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

maybe you should try doing that to the coaching staff in question instead.

having coaches who can fix mechanics – what an idea, huh.

by larry on Nov 12, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't care I still hate him

by Graham on Nov 12, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

makes sense.

by larry on Nov 12, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don Cooper should be the target of your ire

but he’s invulnerable to all but the juiciest burgers?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm ron burgundy?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 19, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He had 25 LRS.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Easy Heat don't pay no mind to the haters, fortunately

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rivera's only had a tRA above 2 twice since 2003.

He’s insane

by Graham on Nov 12, 2008 1:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's amazing.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's even cooler because he throws nothing but fastballs

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PS: Sorry SC is so slow today.

by Graham on Nov 12, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering if it was my browser or the site.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DId SC not get enough carbs for breakfast

btw, thanks for having such a cool (and free!) site

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Souls*

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Idontgeddit

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SC eats souls...

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet analysis.

1. Mariano Rivera is so good its scary.
2. Fuentes was a more effective pitcher than K-Rod this year.
3. Joey Devine has shown that he can handle varying degrees of pressure effectively. Hopefully this increases confidence the A’s organization has in Devine, and he consequentially gets pitched in more of those high leverage situations. Either way, the guy’s a stud.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 12, 2008 9:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs