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Mariano Rivera is Crazy Good

How good is the question I decided to attempt to answer. First I collected the data for 30 of the top relievers in the business. From save-record setting closers like Francisco Rodriguez to relievers only this site would fawn over like Scott Downs. I then took their tRA, subtracted .35 to get on a ERA scale, and multiplied that by innings pitched divided by nine. Here are those results:

Reliever IP tRA pLI Pre-LRS
Rivera 70 1.11 1.92 31
Kuo 69 1.75 1.09 26
Marmol 87.3 2.49 1.46 25
Papelbon 66.3 2.03 1.59 23
Fuentes 62.7 1.97 2.01 22
Wood 65.3 2.11 1.99 22
Lidge 68 2.31 1.91 21
Balfour 58.3 2.08 1.26 20
Nathan 66 2.65 1.93 18
Broxton 69 2.78 1.7 18
Soria 67.3 2.82 1.78 17
Downs 70.7 2.95 1.6 17
Devine 45.3 1.93 1.36 16
Saito 45 2.04 1.73 15
Jenks 61.7 2.89 1.75 15
Arredondo 61 3.14 1.29 13
Street 70 3.58 1.91 12
Marte 65 3.45 1.39 12
Rodriguez 68.3 3.59 2.54 11
Bell 78 3.79 1.77 11
Shields 63.3 3.68 1.83 10
Ziegler 59.7 3.77 1.69 9
B. Wilson 62.3 4.08 2.25 7
Hoffman 45.3 3.67 1.9 7
Capps 53.7 3.95 1.7 7
Lyon 59.3 4 1.65 7
Rauch 71.7 4.17 1.32 7
Sherrill 53.3 4.07 2.02 6
Corpas 79.7 4.57 1.37 5
Romero 59 4.39 1.52 5

 

Star-divide

My next question was this: should J.C. Romero's innings count the same as Mariano Rivera's? Not due to the number next to that inning, but rather the leverage situation. Since pLI is readily available at FanGraphs I decided to add that in. Adjusting the formula by simply multiplying our "Pre-LRS" by pLI.  Call it Leveraged Runs Saved, and I included the Pre-LRS numbers in case you don't want a context-based metric.

Reliever IP tRA pLI Pre-LRS LRS
Rivera 70 1.11 1.92 31 60
Fuentes 62.7 1.97 2.01 22 44
Wood 65.3 2.11 1.99 22 43
Lidge 68 2.31 1.91 21 40
Marmol 87.3 2.49 1.46 25 37
Papelbon 66.3 2.03 1.59 23 36
Nathan 66 2.65 1.93 18 35
Broxton 69 2.78 1.7 18 30
Soria 67.3 2.82 1.78 17 30
Rodriguez 68.3 3.59 2.54 11 29
Kuo 69 1.75 1.09 26 28
Downs 70.7 2.95 1.6 17 27
Jenks 61.7 2.89 1.75 15 27
Saito 45 2.04 1.73 15 26
Balfour 58.3 2.08 1.26 20 25
Street 70 3.58 1.91 12 23
Devine 45.3 1.93 1.36 16 22
Bell 78 3.79 1.77 11 20
Shields 63.3 3.68 1.83 10 18
Arredondo 61 3.14 1.29 13 17
Marte 65 3.45 1.39 12 17
B. Wilson 62.3 4.08 2.25 7 16
Ziegler 59.7 3.77 1.69 9 15
Hoffman 45.3 3.67 1.9 7 14
Capps 53.7 3.95 1.7 7 12
Lyon 59.3 4 1.65 7 12
Sherrill 53.3 4.07 2.02 6 12
Rauch 71.7 4.17 1.32 7 10
Romero 59 4.39 1.52 5 7
Corpas 79.7 4.57 1.37 5 6

You'll notice Rivera's lead only increases. He's almost 20 runs better than the next of the best reliever. That's amazing.  Remember Rivera is 38 and only recorded 39 saves this season. For whatever reason not a ton of people talked about his season, I guess the Yankees not being a playoff team had something to do with it, yet I'm not going to accept that as a reasonable excuse.

Other notes:

- Kuo was just as good as Rodriguez, but his town mate had 61 more saves.

- Speaking of Los Angeles, both teams have three relievers listed.

- Same with Oakland, pre-Street trade.

- Can Joe Nathan get some love? Just a little?

- Marmol/Wood is the best National League combo.

- Broxton + Soria = Rivera. Seriously someone get this man some more love.

References

StatCorner

FanGraphs

0 recs  |  Comment 44 comments |

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How Did They Do That?

Nov 2009 from The Good Phight - 8 comments

Comments

Display:

i think it's also the whole "it was a good season but it wasn't a great season by his standards" thing.

perception obviously colored by the saves total and the yankees lack of playoffs. rivera is just so good that this stuff is ho-hum. but, damn, 0.665 WHIP? i mean…damn.

by larry on Nov 12, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well

It was the best season he ever pitched.. I think we all just slept on him, especially considering 07 was probably his worst season.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Nov 12, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Weird Yankee effect

either massively overrated (Jeter, Tino) or in the shadows and underrated (Rivera, Bernie).

I love how a closer can have one or good seasons and suddenly people throw around Rivera comparisons. Remember Eric Gagne?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I talked about him all season

Reminiscent of Eckersley’s best seasons.

by JI on Nov 12, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mo is awesome

But you know, there’s only guy among those getting MVP love… Sad stuff, man, sad stuff…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 12:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

But Lidge was pretty good

K-Rod was okay. They both shouldn’t get any vote.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I assumed you meant K-Rod would get a MVP vote.

So I meant Lidge too. Sorry about the confusion.

Lidge finished top 5 in CY, we know Rivera won’t, K-Rod may.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that's pretty sad

Mo is so good that even with pretty much everyone considering him the best closer ever, he’s still underrated.

I think K-Rod may even take the MVP award. Don’t ever underestimate the dumbness of the BBWAA.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ramon Ramirez

I know it isn’t necessarilly relevant here, but while leverage is obvioulsy important when discussing relievers, I’m not sure if its completely fair, given that relievers (unless I’m misunderstanding the stat) don’t choose the situations they pitch in.

Ramon Ramirez is a case in point. He doesn’t make either list, despite being a “setup man.” Is that his fault? I dunno. But according to pRAA at Stat Corner (essential tRA above league average * innings pitched), he was the fifth most valuble reliever in the AL, even higher that Soria, the closer on his own team (Ramirez pitched more innings, and had a better tRA than Soria).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I was actually going to put Ramirez on here, but wanted an even number.

I’m probably going to pursue collecting pLI and tRA numbers for all relievers with 40+ innings and do a comprehensive list.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That would be awesome.

Although there’s probably a massive amount of relievers with 40+ innings.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 12, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There are 91 relievers with 60+ innings this season. Scary.

Definitely still looks like a huge, huge task.

Maybe the X best relievers and the 10 worst might sound more feasible.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 12, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Eh, it's not that bad.

My process would be this:

Set minimum # of PAs on StatCorner, get the top 60 in tRA
Export the top pLI guys with x+ IP
Use vlookup to import the pLI number next to tRA.
Then I just have to enter innings.

We’ll see, perhaps I can come up with a better alternative.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 12, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds good

But would that address devil_fingers concern that leverage would undervalue a reliever.

by Sokojoe on Nov 12, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha

Thanks for clearing that up

by Sokojoe on Nov 12, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

This is more a list of most productive relievers in 2008 and not a list of best relievers. Going forward, or to assess actual personal value (like on the free agent market) you want to assign each reliever a leverage based on how good he is. That is, what sorts of situations he deserves to pitch in.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 12, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the lack of thornton in this post is depressing

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don Cooper should be the target of your ire

but he’s invulnerable to all but the juiciest burgers?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i'm ron burgundy?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 19, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Easy Heat don't pay no mind to the haters, fortunately

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it's even cooler because he throws nothing but fastballs

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Nov 12, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

DId SC not get enough carbs for breakfast

btw, thanks for having such a cool (and free!) site

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Idontgeddit

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 12, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sweet analysis.

1. Mariano Rivera is so good its scary.
2. Fuentes was a more effective pitcher than K-Rod this year.
3. Joey Devine has shown that he can handle varying degrees of pressure effectively. Hopefully this increases confidence the A’s organization has in Devine, and he consequentially gets pitched in more of those high leverage situations. Either way, the guy’s a stud.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 12, 2008 9:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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