2008 CF Defense By PMR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 11, 2008 11:59 AM EST in Stat-Colored Glasses Comment 7 comments

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.

Today, we look at center fielders - first on the team level and then for individuals.

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Rays	4264	451	438.07	12.93	10.8879651	10.21	10.2
Mets	4335	435	422.51	12.49	10.5174543	9.7	9.69
Twins	4607	488	475.21	12.79	10.7700753	9.35	9.34
Athletics	4285	444	433.07	10.93	9.2038251	8.59	8.58
Phillies	4396	389	378.54	10.46	8.8080522	8.01	8
Reds	4299	413	404.02	8.98	7.5617886	7.04	7.03
Angels	4374	429	421.94	7.06	5.9450142	5.44	5.43
Astros	4292	427	420.91	6.09	5.1282063	4.78	4.77
Brewers	4354	406	400.2	5.8	4.884006	4.49	4.48
Mariners	4512	435	429.86	5.14	4.3282398	3.84	3.83
Rockies	4535	405	400.3	4.7	3.957729	3.49	3.48
Yankees	4349	407	402.92	4.08	3.4356456	3.16	3.15
Diamondbacks	4224	402	398.46	3.54	2.9809278	2.82	2.81
Dodgers	4265	377	374.62	2.38	2.0041266	1.88	1.87
Red Sox	4232	406	404.43	1.57	1.3220499	1.25	1.24
Marlins	4338	438	436.46	1.54	1.2967878	1.2	1.19
Braves	4383	360	361.2	-1.2	-1.010484	-0.92	-0.93
Pirates	4683	433	434.85	-1.85	-1.5578295	-1.33	-1.34
Indians	4513	412	414.22	-2.22	-1.8693954	-1.66	-1.67
Orioles	4540	440	442.64	-2.64	-2.2230648	-1.96	-1.97
Padres	4419	453	456.46	-3.46	-2.9135622	-2.64	-2.65
Rangers	4667	451	456.5	-5.5	-4.631385	-3.97	-3.98
Cubs	4156	391	396.42	-5.42	-4.5640194	-4.39	-4.4
Giants	4232	454	460.66	-6.66	-5.6081862	-5.3	-5.31
White Sox	4409	362	369.04	-7.04	-5.9281728	-5.38	-5.39
Blue Jays	4215	381	389.5	-8.5	-7.157595	-6.79	-6.8
Tigers	4536	450	460.98	-10.98	-9.2459286	-8.15	-8.16
Nationals	4417	426	439.8	-13.8	-11.620566	-10.52	-10.53
Royals	4413	417	436.29	-19.29	-16.24353	-14.72	-14.73
Cardinals	4597	388	409.47	-21.47	-18.079243	-15.73	-15.74

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Delta	Runs Delta	Runs / 4000	RAA / 4000
Rajai Davis	1483	153	142.55	10.45	8.7996315	23.73	23.72
Ichiro Suzuki	1887	195	186.2	8.8	7.410216	15.71	15.7
Carlos Gonzalez	1585	176	169	7	5.89449	14.88	14.87
B.J. Upton	3642	378	362.2	15.8	13.304706	14.61	14.6
Carlos Gomez	3988	437	422.56	14.44	12.1594908	12.2	12.19
Marlon Byrd	1372	149	145.28	3.72	3.1325004	9.13	9.12
Carlos Beltran	4171	418	407.47	10.53	8.8669971	8.5	8.49
Gregor Blanco	1495	128	124.87	3.13	2.6356791	7.05	7.04
Jacoby Ellsbury	1660	171	168.01	2.99	2.5177893	6.07	6.06
Wily Taveras	3124	282	276.52	5.48	4.6145436	5.91	5.9
Brian Anderson	1295	102	99.83	2.17	1.8272919	5.64	5.63
Torii Hunter	3587	350	344.29	5.71	4.8082197	5.36	5.35
Chris Young	4091	393	387.93	5.07	4.2692949	4.17	4.16
Andruw Jones	1481	133	131.63	1.37	1.1536359	3.12	3.11
Shane Victorino	3619	314	310.92	3.08	2.5935756	2.87	2.86
Michael Bourn	3051	291	289	2	1.68414	2.21	2.2
Melky Cabrera	2919	272	270.56	1.44	1.2125808	1.66	1.65
Corey Patterson	2388	242	241.55	0.45	0.3789315	0.63	0.62
Alfredo Amezaga	1451	146	145.75	0.25	0.2105175	0.58	0.57
Grady Sizemore	4199	382	382.73	-0.73	-0.6147111	-0.59	-0.6
Adam Jones	3487	337	337.64	-0.64	-0.5389248	-0.62	-0.63
Matt Kemp	2425	209	209.73	-0.73	-0.6147111	-1.01	-1.02
Coco Crisp	2534	234	235.17	-1.17	-0.9852219	-1.56	-1.57
Jeremy Reed	1439	132	132.92	-0.92	-0.7747044	-2.15	-2.16
Jim Edmonds	3420	242	244.43	-2.43	-2.0462301	-2.39	-2.4
Cody Ross	2561	254	255.96	-1.96	-1.6504572	-2.58	-2.59
Mike Cameron	3174	293	295.47	-2.47	-2.0799129	-2.62	-2.63
Aaron Rowand	3750	411	414.28	-3.28	-2.7619896	-2.95	-2.96
Alex Rios	1531	156	158.34	-2.34	-1.9704438	-5.15	-5.16
Jody Gerut	1816	189	191.84	-2.84	-2.3914788	-5.27	-5.28
Mark Kotsay	2145	173	176.54	-3.54	-2.9809278	-5.56	-5.57
Reed Johnson	1618	144	147.07	-3.07	-2.5851549	-6.39	-6.4
Nate McLouth	4228	380	388.88	-8.88	-7.4775816	-7.07	-7.08
Josh Hamilton	2977	268	274.44	-6.44	-5.4229308	-7.29	-7.3
Vernon Wells	2582	217	222.72	-5.72	-4.8166404	-7.46	-7.47
Scott Hairston	1152	114	116.69	-2.69	-2.2651683	-7.87	-7.88
Joey Gathright	2242	197	202.5	-5.5	-4.631385	-8.26	-8.27
Curtis Granderson	3740	366	379.16	-13.16	-11.081641	-11.85	-11.86
Nick Swisher	1650	138	144	-6	-5.05242	-12.25	-12.26
Skip Schumaker	1760	136	143.45	-7.45	-6.2734215	-14.26	-14.27
Lastings Milledge	3632	348	365.21	-17.21	-14.492025	-15.96	-15.97
Rick Ankiel	2433	213	224.6	-11.6	-9.768012	-16.06	-16.07
Ryan Sweeney	1053	95	102.85	-7.85	-6.6102495	-25.11	-25.12
David DeJesus	1524	151	163.83	-12.83	-10.803758	-28.36	-28.37

If the B.J. Upton from the playoffs shows up next year, the rest of the American League is in trouble. Ichiro showed he could excel in CF, but then returned to RF anyway. The A's lose about 4 wins over the course of a season simply from defense by trading away Carlos Gonzalez if they give the job to Ryan Sweeney. Josh Hamilton ranked pretty poorly, which is counter to a lot of reports. And Vernon Wells ranked lower than I would have expected too. I'm still waiting for the Blue Jays to demonstrate where their extremely high team ranking came from, since they've been no better than middle of the pack on the three positions so far. Unfortunately the Royals were still running David DeJesus out to CF more often than not at the end of the season. He's much better suited to a corner position, but they don't really have a spot for him there because of the Jose Guillen signing.

In the National League, Carlos Beltran is the same as he ever was. Rajai Davis was a surprise (oops, he's on the A's now) - the only saving grace of the Matt Morris trade in 2007 was I didn't think the Pirates gave up anything of value. Guess I was wrong there. Speaking of the Pirates, Nate McLouth is a joke for a Gold Glove, but he's nowhere near the -40 plays (roughly -33 runs) that Dewan lists him in his +/- ratings. The Cardinals could really use some defensive help in CF. Neither Schumaker or Ankiel are really center fielders. Andruw Jones' performance was a nice surprise. It's definitely not Andruw in his prime, but defense was about the only skill he would have ranked above average at last season.

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Comments

am I crazy, or does Rajai Davis play for the As?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 11, 2008 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No, I'm crazy

I missed the fact that he went from the Giants to the A’s.

So if he takes over CF instead of Sweeney, you don’t really need to worry about the drop-off defensively. Of course offensively he’s pretty terrible.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 11, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But if he's really a +20 run defender

he sill looks like a league-average player, maybe above, quickly gong over his bRAA and prorating his career WPA/LI per plate appearance for 700 ABs.

Still not sure why everyone thinks Holliday will suddenly become a 4 WAR player when he’s been between 5 and 6 the last few years, given that all the stats are park-adjusted, but that’s another issue.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 11, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he's a true talent +20

Last year he was -4 by PMR.

Sky’s suggested I look into regressing these, which I haven’t got a chance to work on yet. But I think the numbers will regress heavily towards average, especially based on the small samples for a lot of the players. My guess is Davis would be pulled under +10 just for this season and a true projection would have him some where around +6 or +7.

Which is what RallyMonkey has him at for CF for 2009. My W.A.G. feels vindicated :-)

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 11, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs