Inspired by the evaluation R.J. has been giving the free agents, I've decided to try my hand at doing so with the F.A.T. this blog has pointed out.
My method started off with grabbing the Batting Wins off Baseball-Reference for 2006-2008 and weighted it 5/4/3, like in the original method. For players who had little to no time at the MLB level for a year I went to the 2006-2008 MLEs [2006 2007 2008] and converted the numbers to wOBA. I then converted wOBA to Wins Above Average. In the place of Batting Wins, I slotted the WAA in. Using the number of number of wins above average, I divided it by the number of plate appearances made. Using this number (which is the number of Wins Above Average Per PA), I extrapolated it out to 650 PA, roughly 150 games.
Reliability is the number of PAs I was using divided by 2100 (700 PA * 3). 700 PA would be the number of PA for 162 games. For example, Chris Snelling has a grand total of 347 workable PAs, therefore his reliability is very low. A reliability score of 1.0 would mean that the player had 2100 PAs in 2006-2008. It's a rather arbitrary number but it'll give you a decent idea of the sample size I was working with.
There are many similarities between this post and the ones which R.J. has been using. The fielding number was grabbed from the CHONE Defensive Projections for 2009, is possible, otherwise I went to 2008, just like the free agent evaluation posts. Only Brian Myrow did not have any defensive data in either of these databases. The positional adjustments were made using Tango's positional adjustments, just like the free agent evaluation posts. WAR has 2.25 wins added on to switch from average to replacement, like their approach. $MM is calculated in the same fashion.
Projected PA is determined in 2004 MARCEL fashion. Half of the 2008 PAs + a tenth of the 2007 PAs + 200 PAs.
Don't put too much weight into my numbers, though. There's not too much going into them -- just throwing together some MLEs to help demonstrate the value of the F.A.T. on the market. It's more to give you a concept of their value rather than to be extremely accurate. Please also keep in mind that platoonability wasn't taken into account when determining the batting score.
- There is some decent value from the F.A.T., especially when you compare it to the Mid-Range Free Agent Hitters.
- Ryan Langerhans especially stands out. His defensive prowess, like most defensive players, is seriously underrated. His defense may be a click below Endy Chavez but he should still be a great bench player -- and argubly a decent starting outfielder.
- Brian Myrow was the only hitter to finish with a positive score for hitting. If he can play average defense, he could potentially be a great pick up. A more cost-effective Kevin Millar?
- Adam Everett deserves a shot. His bat is definitely below replacement level but there is no doubting the runs he saves with the globe. If he can rebound from his struggles in 2008, he'll be a great pick up.
- Snelling has gotten almost no PA between 2006-2008. I didn't know he was that fragile.