Athletics Acquire Matt Holliday

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 2:32 PM EST Comment 52 comments

Zero details at this point.

Without knowing who they dealt, here's my preliminary analysis after speaking with Peter:

A) The A's can now compete in the division, if they win/come close Holliday walks, they get two draft picks.

B) The A's can try to compete, flip Holliday at the deadline (or sooner).

---

Looks like Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.

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This is VERY interesting.

I wonder what they were willing to give up.

by staplemaniac on Nov 10, 2008 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Huston Street + Dana Eveland + ?

by Peter Bendix on Nov 10, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Emil Brown

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

emil brown is a FA

and would have negative value anyway

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Nov 10, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

D'oh

BURN…. I wish I had meant that a joke…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer Smith going over Eveland, and most sources are saying Smith.

Smith’s numbers overall look less sustainable, and it looked like Eveland had turned somewhat of a corner after his midyear minor league stint.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Return of the F-ing A Trade

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Talk at AN suggests

that Greg Smith is part of the deal, possibly Buck as well. I’m hoping the A’s can hold onto CarGon.

by Sliderule on Nov 10, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Smith was prone for a collapse.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess...

Gonzalez + Street + Smith (or maybe Gallagher)

by Peter Bendix on Nov 10, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We are all hoping

that it’s Buck instead of CarGon. Or Smith instead of Gallagher. But those three you list would seem to be too much to part with.

by Sliderule on Nov 10, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If it's

Buck, Smith, and Street, then it’s an absolutely laughable deal. If you give up CarGon or Marshall, it’s still a good deal for the As.

CarGon, Street, and Marshall would be a lot to give up, I think.

by Peter Bendix on Nov 10, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We still don't know

any details, like if it’s only Holliday, if there is $$$ involved, etc. So, to early to call, as we all heard a lot last week.

by Sliderule on Nov 10, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fail.

By Marshall, I mean Gallagher. For some reason I still confuse the two Seans.

by Peter Bendix on Nov 10, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope the A's do not lose Gallagher.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently there's some source saying Smith, Street, CarGon is the deal

and if that is the case, I’m a little disappointed. I liked watching CarGon and think Street will get back to being a great closer soon.

by Sliderule on Nov 10, 2008 3:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That would be a very good deal for the Athletics.

by Peter Bendix on Nov 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huston Street = Rich Man's Leo Nunez

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CarGon is very good defender, hm.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. I'm not sold on Cunningham being the starting center fielder.

And defense is huge.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Sweeney.

by Peter Bendix on Nov 10, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is the same question re: defense still out there regarding sweeney in center?

by larry on Nov 10, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sweeney was horrendous this season

At least according to PMR: -63.5 runs / 4000 BIP.

CarGon was almost as far the other direction: 37.8 runs / 4000 BIP

That’s a 10 win swing!!

I’ll have the full CF numbers up tomorrow.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 10, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whaaa?!

Those numbers seem kind of wild. Sweeney seems decent, CarGon seems superior in CF from a subjective POV. I would be shocked to if Sweeney’s was that far behind. 10 wins? smells fishy.

by Sliderule on Nov 10, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct

Thanks for calling me on that. I had a typo in the formula.

Instead Sweeney is only -25 runs and CarGon is about +15. It’s a 4 win difference :-)

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 10, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks.

when he was in the white sox system the concern always was that he wasn’t good enough defensively to play center and also not good enough offensively to play the corners. i see that hasn’t changed.

by larry on Nov 11, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have a pet peeve with using a one year sample of fielding data pro-rated up to a full-season used to judge talent level.

A poor man’s (and maybe blind and stupid man’s) regression would be simply to use the actual Runs Delta and assume it was over a full season.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 11, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how about if you couple it with scouting reports which have always said sweeney can't play center?

by larry on Nov 11, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chone's projections

(which regress to the Fans Scouting Report) have Sweeney at +9 in the corners, and +2 in center.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 11, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I hope it doesn’t come across like I’m trying to project how they’ll do in the future.

The real statement is “Based on the PMR numbers for 2008, if both played a full season, there was a 4 win difference between Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney defensively. Results not considered conclusive and have little bearing on future expectations.”

I probably should be careful with the shorthand version.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Nov 11, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just put "Results not considered conclusive and have little bearing on future expectations" as your signature.

by larry on Nov 11, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

See, I should stop forgetting things in a flurry of WTFery.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if colorado can't compete...

they can flip street, no?

by EWS1532 on Nov 10, 2008 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Or sit on him for draft picks like with Fuentes.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Colorado has Street for 2 years though.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not judging the trade, but the A's have way too many OF possibilties NOT trade a couple in the next year or two.

Of course, you don’t want to just give them away, but there are plenty of others to fill in for whoever gets dealt.

Street’s got two more arbitration years left, right?

Smith doesn’t seem like a big loss.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 10, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Street has 2 years left, yes

and I think he’s getting $3M in 09?

Smith and CarGon are under team control for 5 and 6 more years (!) respectively, though, I think.

by Sliderule on Nov 10, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CarGon might be 5.

I think he got enough time in 2008 to get arbitration in 2011.

Street got 3 MM in 2008, he’ll prob. get more in 2009.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably a bit.

But given his relatively bad ERA and lack of saves, I bet it’s only in the $5MM range instead of $8-10MM

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 10, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i saw a post on A's nation complaining that bob geren ruined the value of street.

one might argue that he helped his value by keeping those ever so important counting stats down.

by larry on Nov 10, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Closers == overrated out the ass.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, pardon my french.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Saves are overrated, but not a bullpen ace.

At least relative to bullpen depth. Take a 2.75 ERA reliever over 72 IP. That’s worth (4.75 – 2.75) / 9 × 72 = 16 RAR. However, you can leverage these innings in close-and-late games. If the LI is a touch over 2, say 2.25, those 16 RAR have a win impact of 16 × 2.25 = 36 RAR that come in neutral situations (like from starters). 3.5 WAR win position players are borderline All-Stars, like Carlos Guillen, Alex Rios, and Andre Ethier this year. And it’s quite reasonable for a superstar ace reliever to have an even lower ERA or pitch more innings.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 10, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah I agree with that sentiment.

I was aiming more at the whole “closers/saves” mentality.

If you’re talking closer as in relief ace, I think those are important. If you’re talking a guy who only pitches the 9th and in “save” situations, that’s overrated.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Aviles!

3.5 WAR in 2/3 season! But I guess being 1-1.5 wins better than Alexei Ramirez and Jacoby Ellsbury only gets you 4th place in the ROY voting.

Oh well, at least we can always count on the integrity and intelligience of the Gold Glove voters.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I predict Alexeir Ramirez will rate as a good fielder next year.

Why? Because that’s what we deserve for ragging on him so much.

Although they should probably put him in center. And his OBP will still suck.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 11, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh god.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 10, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow!

I knew the A’s were looking for offense, I just didn’t know it would be from a OFer…

Lets see how Holliday does at the AL.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 10, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I've heard speculation over the years that Holliday doesn't handle curveballs well.

And since curveballs don’t curve as much in Coors, he’ll be hurt more than the average player by leaving. Anyone want to speak for or against the curveball theory?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 10, 2008 5:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One thing's for sure

Jason Bay would be Barry Bonds in Coors.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 10, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If people are so worried about Holliday out of Coors,

then what the heck is the point of park- and league- adjusted stats? I have him betweeen 5.5 and 6 WAR on a weighted 3-year average. He’s a great defender. Yeah, he’s better at Coors, but everyone pretty much does a bit better at home. Two of his most frequent away parks are Dodger Stadium and Petco…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would be surprised if Beane flips Holliday this off-season, too.

It’s rumored the Cardinals offered Ludwick, Schumaker and Boggs (a very nice pitching prospect).

I’m sure Beane’s fine keeping him for at least half of 2009 (you don’t make the trade otherwise), but if something comes along, go for it.

Also, regarding the point that Beane will collect two draft picks after 2009, it’s a solid bet that Street would have returned two picks in two years, too.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 10, 2008 6:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs